Arbroath vs Raith Rovers Result & Analysis

Arbroath and Raith Rovers are locked in a finely balanced encounter, with the model favouring an away win. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly active match, and the most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 13.7% chance. Arbroath, at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded, while Raith Rovers, on the road, has 1.67 scored and 1.20 conceded. The probabilities for the match result are 35% home win, 29% draw, and 37% away win. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 92.4%, Over 3.5 cards at 82.1%, Under 11.5 corners at 79.3%, Under 25.5 fouls at 77.7%, Over 1.5 at 75.2% (miss) and Under 3.5 at 72.9% (hit). With both sides on recent winning streaks, the game could swing in either direction, but the slight edge for Raith Rovers makes the away win the most likely outcome.

A surprising 0-0 draw saw the pre-match favourite, Raith Rovers, fail to secure the win that the model had predicted with a 37% probability. The match ended in a stalemate, a result that the model’s call was wrong. The model also suggested Over 1.5 goals at 75.2% and Under 3.5 at 72.9%. The former missed, while the latter hit. Arbroath, on a two-game winning run, and Raith Rovers, coming off a defeat, both finished level. The final score of 0-0 matched the most likely outcome of 1-1, 0-0 or 0-1, each with roughly an 8% chance, but the actual result was a draw.