Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv Result & Analysis

Arda Kardzhali are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with the model favouring a home win. The odds are 48% for a victory, 27% for a draw and 25% for a Botev Plovdiv win, reflecting a slight edge for the hosts. The average number of goals expected is 2.7, with the most probable total being two goals. The single scoreline the model sees as most likely is a 1-1 draw, carrying a 13% chance.

Arda have been productive on home turf, scoring an average of 1.88 goals and conceding 1.38 against teams of similar strength. Botev, on the road, have struggled to find the net, averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 conceded against comparable opposition.

The model’s selections include an 88.7% chance of over 2.5 cards, 83.9% for over 19.5 fouls, 76.7% for over 1.5 goals, 76.5% for under 11.5 corners, 75.5% for over 3.5 cards, 71.3% for over 21.5 fouls, and 70.9% for under 3.5 goals. Each pick is presented with its probability alone.

The upset came early as Botev Plovdiv snatched a 2-0 victory, ending Arda Kardzhali’s four-game winning streak at home. The pre-match favourite was the model’s Home win at 48 percent, but the call was wrong. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Over 2.5 cards hit at 88.7 percent, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 83.9 percent, Over 1.5 hit at 76.7 percent, Under 3.5 hit at 70.9 percent, and Over 3.5 cards hit at 75.5 percent. However, Under 11.5 corners missed at 76.5 percent and Over 21.5 fouls missed at 71.3 percent. The final score of 0-2 confirmed the away win.