Aris Thessalonikis and AEK Athens FC face each other in a tightly contested cup tie that offers little clear advantage. The model favours a home win, with a 40% chance, followed by a 29% draw and a 30% away win. The expected total of 2.5 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.9% probability. Aris, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, while AEK, on the road against a weaker side, nets 1.5 and concedes only 0.6. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.9%), Under 5.5 (95.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (88.7%), Under 4.5 (88.6%) and Home +2 handicap (87.1%). Each pick is presented with its exact probability, reflecting the balanced nature of the contest.
Results analysis
Aris Thessalonikis, riding a five-game winning streak, stunned AEK Athens FC with a 1-1 draw, denying the pre-match favourite - Home win at 40 percent - a clear upset. The model’s call was wrong, as the match finished in a draw. Every suggested pick was fulfilled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.5 percent, Under 6.5 at 98.5 percent, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.9 percent, Under 5.5 at 95.5 percent, Home under 3.5 goals at 94.9 percent, Away under 2.5 goals at 88.7 percent, Under 4.5 at 88.6 percent, and Home +2 handicap at 87.1 percent. The low-scoring affair matched the model’s expectation of a 2-goal total, with the most likely scoreline of 1-1 confirmed.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aris Thessalonikis win✗ Miss
40.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
29.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC win✗ Miss
30.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aris Thessalonikis
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.30
1.64
1.07
1.00
1.50
vs Stronger (11)
0.91
1.73
1.60
1.80
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (6)
0.83
1.33
0.00
2.00
1.00
1.20
vs Weaker (13)
1.85
0.92
1.88
0.50
1.80
1.60
Clean sheet %
30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Athens FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Athens FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
0.80
2.25
0.44
1.36
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.44
1.56
1.80
0.60
1.00
2.75
vs Weaker (21)
2.00
0.48
2.45
0.36
1.50
0.60
Clean sheet %
60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris Thessalonikis) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.4%
Under 1.5
26.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.7%
Under 2.5
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.1%
Under 3.5
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.7%
No
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.9%
1-0
9.6%
0-0
9.1%
2-1
8.7%
0-1
7.9%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
7.4%
0-2
5.3%
Aris Thessalonikis goals ↓
AEK Athens FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.1%
7.9%
5.3%
2.1%
0.6%
1
9.6%
14%
7.4%
2.9%
0.8%
2
7.5%
8.7%
5.1%
2.0%
0.6%
3
3.4%
4.0%
2.3%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.2%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aris Thessalonikis goals (down), columns = AEK Athens FC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Aris Avato
2.33
Nea Ionia
2.33
Asteras Tripolis
2.29
Apollon Krya Vrysi
2.25
PAOK
2.25
Ethnikos Piraeus
2.25
Makedonikos Neapolis
2.00
Kifisia
2.00
Olympiakos Piraeus
2.00
Volos NFC
2.00
Kavala
2.00
Anagennisi Artas
2.00
OFI
2.00
Kampaniakos Chalastra
2.00
Iraklis 1908
2.00
PAS Giannina
2.00
Panserraikos
2.00
Panargiakos
2.00
Panachaiki FC
1.86
Panathinaikos
1.75
AEK Athens FC
1.67
Zakynthos
1.67
Diagoras
1.67
Mandraikos
1.50
Evosmou
1.50
Nea Artaki
1.50
Kalamata
1.50
Ilioupoli
1.50
Erani Filiatra
1.50
Niki Volos
1.50
Atromitos Palamas
1.50
Thyella Kamari
1.50
Trikala
1.50
Aigeas Plomariou
1.50
Panthrakikos
1.50
Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou
1.50
Panionios
1.43
Egaleo
1.40
Aris Thessalonikis
1.33
Larisa
1.33
Saronikos Anavyssou
1.00
Korinthos
1.00
Atromitos
1.00
Kallithea
0.67
Afantou
0.50
Kissamikos
0.00
Diagoras Ikaria
0.00
Panlakonikos
0.00
Ermis Amyntaio
0.00
Levadiakos
0.00
Agios Nikolaos
0.00
Apollon Paralimniou
0.00
Olympiakos Volos
0.00
Kydonias
0.00
Panetolikos
0.00
Orestis Orestiadas
0.00
Astrapi Mesopotamia
0.00
Pallixouriakos
0.00
Apollo Efpaliou
0.00
Ermionida
0.00
Doxa Volakas
0.00
Kilkisiakos
0.00
Episkopi
0.00
PAO Vardas
0.00
Agios Dimitrios Agrinio
0.00
Thyella Chalkeiou
0.00
Eordaikos
0.00
Sartis
0.00
Smolikas Falanis
0.00
Lamia
0.00
Astir Stavros
0.00
Akadimia Platamona
0.00
Naousa
0.00
Byron Kavala
0.00
Ermis Kanaliou
0.00
Spartakos Graikochoriou
0.00
Lefkimmi
0.00
Thyella Katsikas
0.00
Thyella Patras
0.00
Aris Thessalonikis is 0.33 points worse than AEK Athens FC in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PAS Giannina
6.00
Panthrakikos
4.50
Kifisia
3.40
Iraklis 1908
3.00
PAOK
2.75
Apollon Krya Vrysi
2.50
Nea Artaki
2.50
Zakynthos
2.17
Panlakonikos
2.00
Evosmou
2.00
Doxa Volakas
2.00
Kavala
2.00
Anagennisi Artas
2.00
Erani Filiatra
2.00
Ethnikos Piraeus
2.00
Atromitos Palamas
2.00
Aigeas Plomariou
2.00
Panargiakos
2.00
Asteras Tripolis
1.86
OFI
1.75
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.71
Volos NFC
1.67
Kampaniakos Chalastra
1.67
Ilioupoli
1.50
Niki Volos
1.50
Trikala
1.50
Panachaiki FC
1.43
Atromitos
1.33
Panionios
1.29
Panathinaikos
1.25
Egaleo
1.20
Kissamikos
1.00
Levadiakos
1.00
Saronikos Anavyssou
1.00
Agios Nikolaos
1.00
Mandraikos
1.00
Apollon Paralimniou
1.00
Olympiakos Volos
1.00
Panetolikos
1.00
Astrapi Mesopotamia
1.00
Eordaikos
1.00
Larisa
1.00
Panserraikos
1.00
Akadimia Platamona
1.00
Aris Avato
1.00
Thyella Patras
1.00
Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou
1.00
AEK Athens FC
0.83
Aris Thessalonikis
0.67
Diagoras
0.67
Nea Ionia
0.67
Makedonikos Neapolis
0.50
Kalamata
0.50
Afantou
0.50
Thyella Kamari
0.50
Kallithea
0.33
Diagoras Ikaria
0.00
Ermis Amyntaio
0.00
Kydonias
0.00
Korinthos
0.00
Orestis Orestiadas
0.00
Pallixouriakos
0.00
Apollo Efpaliou
0.00
Ermionida
0.00
Kilkisiakos
0.00
Episkopi
0.00
PAO Vardas
0.00
Agios Dimitrios Agrinio
0.00
Thyella Chalkeiou
0.00
Sartis
0.00
Smolikas Falanis
0.00
Lamia
0.00
Astir Stavros
0.00
Naousa
0.00
Byron Kavala
0.00
Ermis Kanaliou
0.00
Spartakos Graikochoriou
0.00
Lefkimmi
0.00
Thyella Katsikas
0.00
Aris Thessalonikis is 0.17 goals worse than AEK Athens FC in terms of goals scored per game (0.67 vs 0.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Makedonikos Neapolis
0.00
Korinthos
0.00
Diagoras
0.00
Nea Ionia
0.00
Anagennisi Artas
0.33
Larisa
0.33
Aris Avato
0.33
Kifisia
0.40
Kalamata
0.50
Ilioupoli
0.50
PAOK
0.50
Iraklis 1908
0.50
Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou
0.50
Asteras Tripolis
0.57
Olympiakos Piraeus
0.57
Aris Thessalonikis
0.67
PAS Giannina
0.67
Kallithea
0.67
Panionios
0.86
OFI
0.88
Saronikos Anavyssou
1.00
Mandraikos
1.00
Volos NFC
1.00
Orestis Orestiadas
1.00
Kilkisiakos
1.00
Episkopi
1.00
Kampaniakos Chalastra
1.00
Panathinaikos
1.00
Ethnikos Piraeus
1.00
Afantou
1.00
Thyella Kamari
1.00
Smolikas Falanis
1.00
Lamia
1.00
Astir Stavros
1.00
Panserraikos
1.00
Byron Kavala
1.00
Aigeas Plomariou
1.00
Panthrakikos
1.00
Panachaiki FC
1.29
AEK Athens FC
1.33
Kavala
1.33
Zakynthos
1.33
Apollon Krya Vrysi
1.50
Evosmou
1.50
Nea Artaki
1.50
Erani Filiatra
1.50
Niki Volos
1.50
Atromitos Palamas
1.50
Atromitos
1.67
Panargiakos
1.67
Levadiakos
2.00
Panetolikos
2.00
Trikala
2.00
Naousa
2.00
Thyella Patras
2.00
Egaleo
2.60
Kissamikos
3.00
Agios Nikolaos
3.00
Pallixouriakos
3.00
Apollo Efpaliou
3.00
Agios Dimitrios Agrinio
3.00
Thyella Chalkeiou
3.00
Eordaikos
3.00
Akadimia Platamona
3.00
Ermis Kanaliou
3.00
Lefkimmi
3.00
Thyella Katsikas
3.00
Panlakonikos
4.00
Apollon Paralimniou
4.00
Olympiakos Volos
4.00
Kydonias
4.00
Doxa Volakas
4.00
Ermis Amyntaio
5.00
Astrapi Mesopotamia
5.00
PAO Vardas
5.00
Ermionida
7.00
Sartis
9.00
Spartakos Graikochoriou
11.00
Diagoras Ikaria
14.00
Aris Thessalonikis is 0.67 goals better than AEK Athens FC in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Aris Thessalonikis
For 4.1 · Against 3.5 · Total 7.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 14.6 · Total 26.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AEK Athens FC
For 5.9 · Against 2.3 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 3.0 · Total 6.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.1 · Against 13.1 · Total 27.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aris Thessalonikis
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
8.8
8.3
5.4
5.6
5.2
29.9
30.2
29.6
vs Stronger (15)
8.2
7.9
8.6
4.7
5.9
3.8
27.4
30.6
24.3
vs Similar (10)
9.8
9.8
9.8
5.4
5.0
5.7
30.3
32.0
29.0
vs Weaker (25)
8.4
9.1
7.5
5.8
5.6
6.1
31.1
29.4
33.3
% over line
44%
48%
39%
80%
80%
80%
90%
92%
87%
% under line
56%
52%
61%
20%
20%
20%
10%
8%
13%
This opponent (AEK Athens FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Athens FC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.0
10.2
4.7
4.5
5.0
28.0
27.5
28.5
vs Stronger (1)
10.0
-
10.0
7.0
-
7.0
24.0
-
24.0
vs Similar (14)
9.7
9.1
10.5
5.7
6.0
5.3
27.9
28.9
26.5
vs Weaker (35)
10.3
10.4
10.2
4.3
3.8
4.8
28.2
26.9
29.8
% over line
48%
46%
50%
66%
59%
74%
93%
92%
95%
% under line
52%
54%
50%
34%
41%
26%
7%
8%
5%
This opponent (Aris Thessalonikis) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Panionios
10.4
Kifisia
10.2
AEK Athens FC
10.0
PAS Giannina
9.6
Lamia
9.3
Kallithea
9.3
Panathinaikos
9.3
Olympiakos Piraeus
8.9
Larisa
8.8
Asteras Tripolis
8.7
PAOK
8.7
Volos NFC
8.7
Aris Thessalonikis
8.6
OFI
8.3
Panetolikos
8.3
Levadiakos
8.3
Atromitos
8.3
Ionikos
8.3
Panserraikos
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Panserraikos
6.9
Kifisia
6.7
Volos NFC
6.4
Atromitos
6.3
Larisa
6.1
Levadiakos
6.0
Panionios
5.8
Panathinaikos
5.8
OFI
5.8
Kallithea
5.8
Aris Thessalonikis
5.6
AEK Athens FC
5.5
Asteras Tripolis
5.4
Panetolikos
5.4
PAOK
5.2
Lamia
5.2
PAS Giannina
5.1
Ionikos
5.1
Olympiakos Piraeus
4.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Larisa
36.2
Volos NFC
33.9
Ionikos
32.9
Levadiakos
32.6
Panserraikos
31.4
Atromitos
30.5
OFI
30.4
Panionios
30.3
Kifisia
30.3
Kallithea
30.0
Aris Thessalonikis
29.9
Lamia
29.5
PAS Giannina
29.4
Panathinaikos
29.1
Panetolikos
28.9
Asteras Tripolis
27.9
AEK Athens FC
27.5
PAOK
25.3
Olympiakos Piraeus
25.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
54.9%
Under 9.5
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
67.3%
Under 3.5
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
68.2%
Under 21.5
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Aris Thessalonikis or Draw✓ Hit
69.5%
Avg Implied -
40%
29%
30%
covers Aris Thessalonikis + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aris Thessalonikis or AEK Athens FC✗ Miss
70.9%
Avg Implied -
40%
29%
30%
covers Aris Thessalonikis + AEK Athens FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or AEK Athens FC✓ Hit
59.6%
Avg Implied -
40%
29%
30%
covers Draw + AEK Athens FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
74.7%
Under
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
40.0%
Under
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.1%
Under
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
68.8%
Under
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
32.5%
Under
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.3%
Under
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Aris Thessalonikis, so a minus line means Aris Thessalonikis give that many goals of a start and AEK Athens FC receive them. At -1, Aris Thessalonikis must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Aris Thessalonikis win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Aris Thessalonikis)Actual: AEK Athens FC
Aris Thessalonikis -2
7.2%
Draw -2
12.3%
AEK Athens FC +2
80.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Aris Thessalonikis)Actual: AEK Athens FC
This opponent (AEK Athens FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Athens FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.30
1.38
0.12
0.57
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.56
1.00
0.20
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (21)
1.05
0.19
1.55
0.09
0.50
0.30
Clean sheet %
73% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris Thessalonikis) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aris Thessalonikis
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.73
1.00
0.79
0.69
0.69
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
1.00
0.80
1.40
0.17
0.67
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.83
0.00
2.00
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (13)
1.31
0.46
1.25
0.25
1.40
0.80
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Athens FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Athens FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.50
0.88
0.31
0.79
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.56
1.00
0.80
0.40
0.25
1.75
vs Weaker (21)
0.95
0.29
0.91
0.27
1.00
0.30
Clean sheet %
77% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris Thessalonikis) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Aris Thessalonikis
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Loren Morón47%
Manu García22%
Dario Špikić17%
Dudu14%
Monchu10%
Álvaro Zamora10%
Hamza Mendyl8%
Magomed Shapi Suleymanov8%
Kike Saverio8%
Jakub Brabec7%
Hugo Mallo5%
José Cifuentes3%
Robin Quaison0%
Fabiano0%
Martín Montoya0%
Vladimír Darida0%
Juankar0%
Rubén Pardo0%
Pione Sisto0%
Martin Frýdek0%
Julián Cuesta0%
Lindsay Rose0%
Fran Vélez0%
Giannis Fetfatzidis0%
Jean Jules Mvondo0%
Valentino Fattore0%
Clayton Diandy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Fran Vélez33%
Martín Montoya32%
Monchu30%
Martin Frýdek27%
Hamza Mendyl25%
Hugo Mallo25%
Jean Jules Mvondo25%
Jakub Brabec24%
Álvaro Zamora20%
Fabiano17%
Vladimír Darida17%
Loren Morón17%
Dario Špikić17%
Manu García17%
Dudu14%
José Cifuentes14%
Lindsay Rose12%
Juankar11%
Rubén Pardo11%
Pione Sisto10%
Magomed Shapi Suleymanov8%
Kike Saverio8%
Giannis Fetfatzidis5%
Clayton Diandy5%
Julián Cuesta3%
Robin Quaison0%
Valentino Fattore0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Monchu27%
Hamza Mendyl17%
Martín Montoya14%
Kike Saverio12%
José Cifuentes10%
Pione Sisto10%
Magomed Shapi Suleymanov8%
Manu García6%
Giannis Fetfatzidis5%
Clayton Diandy5%
Hugo Mallo5%
Loren Morón3%
Jakub Brabec0%
Robin Quaison0%
Fabiano0%
Dario Špikić0%
Vladimír Darida0%
Juankar0%
Rubén Pardo0%
Martin Frýdek0%
Julián Cuesta0%
Lindsay Rose0%
Fran Vélez0%
Jean Jules Mvondo0%
Valentino Fattore0%
Álvaro Zamora0%
Dudu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Loren Morón40%
Manu García11%
Monchu10%
Magomed Shapi Suleymanov8%
Dario Špikić8%
Vladimír Darida7%
Clayton Diandy5%
Kike Saverio4%
José Cifuentes3%
Hamza Mendyl0%
Jakub Brabec0%
Robin Quaison0%
Fabiano0%
Martín Montoya0%
Juankar0%
Rubén Pardo0%
Hugo Mallo0%
Pione Sisto0%
Martin Frýdek0%
Julián Cuesta0%
Lindsay Rose0%
Fran Vélez0%
Giannis Fetfatzidis0%
Jean Jules Mvondo0%
Valentino Fattore0%
Álvaro Zamora0%
Dudu0%
AEK Athens FC
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Anthony Martial33%
Steven Zuber33%
Levi García33%
Frantzdy Pierrot22%
Harold Moukoudi20%
Gerasimos Mitoglou20%
Erik Lamela17%
Nordin Amrabat17%
Niclas Eliasson15%
Mijat Gaćinović11%
Aboubakary Koita9%
Petros Mantalos8%
Ehsan Hajsafi7%
Stavros Pilios6%
Paolo Fernandes5%
Jens Jønsson5%
Robert Ljubičić5%
Orbelín Pineda3%
Thomas Strakosha0%
Domagoj Vida0%
Alexander Callens0%
Roberto Pereyra0%
Damian Szymański0%
Moses Odubajo0%
Sotiris Tsiloulis0%
Alberto Brignoli0%
Lazaros Rota0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Erik Lamela39%
Petros Mantalos33%
Moses Odubajo33%
Jens Jønsson32%
Harold Moukoudi30%
Mijat Gaćinović26%
Lazaros Rota25%
Stavros Pilios24%
Aboubakary Koita22%
Damian Szymański20%
Orbelín Pineda17%
Nordin Amrabat17%
Frantzdy Pierrot15%
Levi García13%
Gerasimos Mitoglou13%
Roberto Pereyra12%
Alberto Brignoli11%
Paolo Fernandes11%
Ehsan Hajsafi7%
Anthony Martial6%
Niclas Eliasson5%
Thomas Strakosha5%
Robert Ljubičić5%
Domagoj Vida4%
Alexander Callens0%
Steven Zuber0%
Sotiris Tsiloulis0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Aboubakary Koita17%
Nordin Amrabat17%
Robert Ljubičić14%
Levi García13%
Erik Lamela13%
Petros Mantalos12%
Lazaros Rota12%
Damian Szymański12%
Domagoj Vida8%
Ehsan Hajsafi7%
Orbelín Pineda7%
Stavros Pilios6%
Anthony Martial6%
Paolo Fernandes5%
Niclas Eliasson5%
Mijat Gaćinović0%
Thomas Strakosha0%
Alexander Callens0%
Roberto Pereyra0%
Steven Zuber0%
Frantzdy Pierrot0%
Moses Odubajo0%
Harold Moukoudi0%
Sotiris Tsiloulis0%
Alberto Brignoli0%
Jens Jønsson0%
Gerasimos Mitoglou0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Levi García27%
Frantzdy Pierrot19%
Erik Lamela17%
Aboubakary Koita17%
Nordin Amrabat17%
Sotiris Tsiloulis17%
Anthony Martial11%
Paolo Fernandes11%
Niclas Eliasson10%
Robert Ljubičić9%
Domagoj Vida8%
Moses Odubajo7%
Stavros Pilios6%
Harold Moukoudi5%
Petros Mantalos4%
Roberto Pereyra4%
Mijat Gaćinović0%
Thomas Strakosha0%
Alexander Callens0%
Ehsan Hajsafi0%
Steven Zuber0%
Damian Szymański0%
Alberto Brignoli0%
Orbelín Pineda0%
Jens Jønsson0%
Lazaros Rota0%
Gerasimos Mitoglou0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (29)
€175m
PAN (34)
€109m
AAF (26)
€85m
PAO (32)
€82m
AT (27)
€41m
OFI (24)
€18m
LEV (24)
€16m
PAN (27)
€13m
AT (31)
€13m
ATR (21)
€12m
KAL (28)
€11m
VN (25)
€10m
KIF (27)
€10m
I1 (25)
€9m
EGA (40)
€6m
PAN (27)
€6m
NV (24)
€6m
KAL (27)
€5m
PAN (24)
€5m
LAR (23)
€5m
ILI (31)
€4m
PG (36)
€4m
KAV (28)
€3m
MN (29)
€3m
KC (26)
€2m
PAN (32)
€2m
Aris Thessalonikis's squad is €44m less valuable than AEK Athens FC's (€41m vs €85m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (12)
€84m
PAN (13)
€46m
AAF (11)
€44m
PAO (11)
€30m
AT (13)
€22m
PAN (11)
€7m
OFI (6)
€6m
LEV (11)
€5m
AT (11)
€5m
KIF (10)
€4m
KAL (8)
€4m
VN (8)
€4m
ATR (7)
€3m
PAN (13)
€3m
EGA (19)
€3m
PAN (11)
€2m
I1 (6)
€2m
NV (7)
€2m
LAR (7)
€2m
KAL (9)
€2m
PG (12)
€1m
KAV (12)
€1m
ILI (10)
€1m
MN (10)
€1m
PAN (12)
€1m
KC (8)
€1m
Aris Thessalonikis's attack is €22m less valuable than AEK Athens FC's (€22m vs €44m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (6)
€47m
PAO (7)
€28m
PAN (8)
€26m
AAF (5)
€16m
AT (5)
€7m
LEV (4)
€5m
OFI (5)
€3m
I1 (7)
€3m
AT (4)
€2m
ATR (3)
€2m
KAL (6)
€2m
PAN (5)
€2m
KIF (6)
€2m
VN (5)
€2m
NV (6)
€1m
EGA (6)
€1m
PAN (3)
€1m
ILI (6)
€1m
KC (7)
€1m
LAR (3)
€1m
PG (7)
€1m
KAL (4)
€1m
MN (4)
€0m
PAN (7)
€0m
KAV (4)
€0m
PAN (1)
€0m
Aris Thessalonikis's midfield is €8m less valuable than AEK Athens FC's (€7m vs €16m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (11)
€44m
PAN (13)
€38m
AAF (10)
€26m
PAO (14)
€24m
AT (9)
€12m
OFI (13)
€8m
ATR (11)
€6m
AT (16)
€6m
VN (12)
€5m
LEV (9)
€5m
KAL (14)
€5m
KIF (11)
€4m
I1 (12)
€4m
PAN (11)
€3m
KAL (14)
€3m
PAN (13)
€3m
NV (11)
€3m
EGA (15)
€2m
LAR (13)
€2m
PAN (10)
€2m
ILI (15)
€2m
PG (17)
€2m
KAV (12)
€1m
MN (15)
€1m
KC (11)
€1m
PAN (13)
€1m
Aris Thessalonikis's defence is €14m less valuable than AEK Athens FC's (€12m vs €26m).
Greece: Super League 1 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Olympiakos Piraeus
Panathinaikos
PAOK
Levadiakos
Asteras Tripolis
Panetolikos
Atromitos
Panserraikos
Volos NFC
OFI
Kallithea
Lamia