This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Larnaca
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
0.73
1.87
0.93
1.27
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.06
0.71
1.33
1.11
0.75
0.25
vs Weaker (13)
2.23
0.77
2.67
0.67
1.86
0.86
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
61.0%
Under 1.5
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
32.6%
Under 2.5
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
14.5%
Under 3.5
85.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
39.7%
No
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.1%
0-0
14.7%
1-1
14.2%
2-0
10.0%
0-1 ✓
9.3%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
5.1%
0-2
4.2%
Aris goals ↓
AEK Larnaca goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
9.3%
4.2%
1.1%
0.2%
1
15%
14%
5.1%
1.3%
0.3%
2
10%
7.9%
3.1%
0.8%
0.2%
3
4.1%
3.2%
1.3%
0.3%
0.1%
4
1.2%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aris goals (down), columns = AEK Larnaca goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AEK Larnaca
2.03
Apoel Nicosia
2.03
Omonia Nicosia
1.92
Aris
1.81
Pafos
1.72
Apollon Limassol
1.65
Anorthosis
1.47
AEL
1.35
Nea Salamis
1.27
Ethnikos Achna
1.25
Karmiotissa
1.00
Doxa
0.88
Othellos
0.82
AE Zakakiou
0.45
Aris is 0.22 points worse than AEK Larnaca in terms of average points per game (1.81 vs 2.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Apoel Nicosia
1.75
Aris
1.75
Ethnikos Achna
1.75
Omonia Nicosia
1.72
Pafos
1.67
Apollon Limassol
1.60
AEK Larnaca
1.58
AEL
1.52
Karmiotissa
1.45
Nea Salamis
1.30
Anorthosis
1.28
Othellos
1.20
AE Zakakiou
1.00
Doxa
0.85
Aris is 0.17 goals better than AEK Larnaca in terms of goals scored per game (1.75 vs 1.58).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Apoel Nicosia
0.67
AEK Larnaca
0.86
Pafos
0.92
Aris
0.94
Apollon Limassol
0.95
Omonia Nicosia
1.03
Anorthosis
1.17
Nea Salamis
1.52
AEL
1.70
Doxa
1.93
Karmiotissa
1.93
Othellos
1.93
Ethnikos Achna
1.98
AE Zakakiou
2.50
Aris is 0.08 goals worse than AEK Larnaca in terms of goals conceded per game (0.94 vs 0.86).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Pafos
56%
Aris
56%
Apollon Limassol
55%
Anorthosis
54%
Karmiotissa
53%
AEK Larnaca
52%
Nea Salamis
52%
Apoel Nicosia
51%
AEL
49%
AE Zakakiou
48%
Othellos
44%
Omonia Nicosia
44%
Ethnikos Achna
42%
Doxa
40%
Aris is 3.6 percentage points better than AEK Larnaca in terms of average possession (56% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Aris
For 5.5 · Against 3.4 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.7 · Against 10.1 · Total 26.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AEK Larnaca
For 4.8 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 15.4 · Total 27.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aris
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.1
10.1
5.3
4.7
5.9
25.7
24.2
27.3
vs Stronger (6)
10.3
9.0
11.7
4.5
4.7
4.3
23.7
24.3
23.0
vs Similar (25)
9.3
9.2
9.4
5.6
4.9
6.2
26.9
24.5
29.7
vs Weaker (19)
9.7
8.9
10.4
5.1
4.3
6.0
24.8
23.7
25.9
% over line
50%
40%
61%
72%
69%
75%
81%
72%
91%
% under line
50%
60%
39%
28%
31%
25%
19%
28%
9%
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Larnaca
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.8
9.3
4.5
5.0
4.0
25.1
25.9
24.2
vs Stronger (2)
8.5
14.0
3.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
18.5
20.0
17.0
vs Similar (33)
9.2
8.9
9.6
4.5
5.0
4.0
26.9
27.7
26.1
vs Weaker (15)
10.3
10.9
9.6
4.9
5.4
4.3
22.5
23.5
21.3
% over line
49%
57%
42%
64%
72%
56%
74%
83%
65%
% under line
51%
43%
58%
36%
28%
44%
26%
17%
35%
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Othellos
10.0
Omonia Nicosia
10.0
AEL
9.8
Apollon Limassol
9.6
AE Zakakiou
9.6
Aris
9.5
AEK Larnaca
9.5
Apoel Nicosia
9.5
Nea Salamis
9.4
Karmiotissa
9.1
Anorthosis
9.0
Doxa
9.0
Pafos
8.4
Ethnikos Achna
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aris
5.5
Pafos
5.3
Apollon Limassol
5.3
Apoel Nicosia
5.3
AE Zakakiou
5.2
Anorthosis
5.2
Ethnikos Achna
5.1
Karmiotissa
4.9
AEK Larnaca
4.9
Doxa
4.8
Nea Salamis
4.8
Omonia Nicosia
4.7
Othellos
4.6
AEL
4.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Apoel Nicosia
29.7
Anorthosis
29.5
Karmiotissa
27.0
Doxa
26.7
AE Zakakiou
26.7
AEL
26.7
Ethnikos Achna
26.1
Aris
25.6
AEK Larnaca
25.6
Pafos
25.5
Apollon Limassol
25.3
Nea Salamis
25.0
Othellos
24.9
Omonia Nicosia
24.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
45.7%
Under 9.5
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
67.9%
Under 3.5
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
76.4%
Under 21.5
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aris
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.40
0.93
0.43
0.62
0.38
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.36
1.25
0.50
0.29
0.29
vs Weaker (15)
1.00
0.27
1.00
0.12
1.00
0.43
Clean sheet %
73% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Larnaca
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.37
1.00
0.53
0.47
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.35
0.78
0.56
0.25
0.12
vs Weaker (13)
1.00
0.38
1.33
0.50
0.71
0.29
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aris over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aris
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.73
0.93
0.29
0.81
1.12
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.25
0.50
0.50
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (11)
0.18
0.73
0.25
0.25
0.14
1.00
vs Weaker (15)
1.47
0.60
1.38
0.25
1.57
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Larnaca
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.37
0.87
0.40
0.80
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.35
0.56
0.56
0.50
0.12
vs Weaker (13)
1.23
0.38
1.33
0.17
1.14
0.57
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aris over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Aris
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Shavy Warren Babicka50%
Aleksandr Kokorin38%
Yannick Gomis25%
Leo Bengtsson25%
Mariusz Stępiński22%
Cajú20%
Jaden Montnor8%
Mihlali Mayambela8%
Alex Yowan Kevin Moucketou-Moussounda8%
Vaná0%
Franz Brorsson0%
Július Szőke0%
Matija Špoljarić0%
Steeve Yago0%
Edi Semedo0%
Slobodan Urošević0%
Veljko Nikolić0%
Eric Boakye0%
Karol Struski0%
Miłosz Matysik0%
Artem Shumansky0%
Morgan Brown0%
Mamadou Sané0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Artem Shumansky50%
Franz Brorsson40%
Aleksandr Kokorin38%
Leo Bengtsson33%
Miłosz Matysik33%
Mamadou Sané33%
Eric Boakye25%
Alex Yowan Kevin Moucketou-Moussounda23%
Morgan Brown22%
Cajú20%
Slobodan Urošević20%
Steeve Yago18%
Karol Struski18%
Yannick Gomis17%
Július Szőke15%
Jaden Montnor8%
Mihlali Mayambela8%
Vaná0%
Matija Špoljarić0%
Mariusz Stępiński0%
Edi Semedo0%
Veljko Nikolić0%
Shavy Warren Babicka0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Edi Semedo33%
Jaden Montnor17%
Aleksandr Kokorin12%
Shavy Warren Babicka12%
Mariusz Stępiński11%
Cajú10%
Karol Struski9%
Leo Bengtsson8%
Mihlali Mayambela8%
Vaná0%
Franz Brorsson0%
Július Szőke0%
Matija Špoljarić0%
Yannick Gomis0%
Steeve Yago0%
Slobodan Urošević0%
Veljko Nikolić0%
Eric Boakye0%
Miłosz Matysik0%
Alex Yowan Kevin Moucketou-Moussounda0%
Artem Shumansky0%
Morgan Brown0%
Mamadou Sané0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Yannick Gomis25%
Leo Bengtsson17%
Aleksandr Kokorin12%
Shavy Warren Babicka12%
Mariusz Stępiński11%
Morgan Brown11%
Jaden Montnor8%
Vaná0%
Franz Brorsson0%
Július Szőke0%
Cajú0%
Matija Špoljarić0%
Steeve Yago0%
Edi Semedo0%
Mihlali Mayambela0%
Slobodan Urošević0%
Veljko Nikolić0%
Eric Boakye0%
Karol Struski0%
Miłosz Matysik0%
Alex Yowan Kevin Moucketou-Moussounda0%
Artem Shumansky0%
Mamadou Sané0%
AEK Larnaca
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Facundo Sánchez33%
Ángel García33%
Gus Ledes25%
Pere Pons25%
Hrvoje Miličević25%
Franco Tongya25%
Valentin Roberge0%
Fran Sol0%
Ádám Gyurcsó0%
Mark Diemers0%
Rafael Lopes0%
Kenan Pirić0%
Imad Faraj0%
Clarismario0%
Alpha Dionkou0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Facundo Sánchez33%
Ángel García33%
Valentin Roberge25%
Gus Ledes25%
Clarismario25%
Alpha Dionkou25%
Fran Sol0%
Ádám Gyurcsó0%
Mark Diemers0%
Rafael Lopes0%
Pere Pons0%
Kenan Pirić0%
Imad Faraj0%
Hrvoje Miličević0%
Franco Tongya0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ádám Gyurcsó67%
Hrvoje Miličević50%
Gus Ledes25%
Valentin Roberge0%
Fran Sol0%
Facundo Sánchez0%
Mark Diemers0%
Ángel García0%
Rafael Lopes0%
Pere Pons0%
Kenan Pirić0%
Imad Faraj0%
Clarismario0%
Alpha Dionkou0%
Franco Tongya0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fran Sol33%
Ádám Gyurcsó33%
Mark Diemers25%
Valentin Roberge0%
Facundo Sánchez0%
Ángel García0%
Rafael Lopes0%
Gus Ledes0%
Pere Pons0%
Kenan Pirić0%
Imad Faraj0%
Hrvoje Miličević0%
Clarismario0%
Alpha Dionkou0%
Franco Tongya0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (23)
€28m
AL (30)
€16m
AL (24)
€15m
AN (30)
€15m
ON (23)
€15m
ARI (26)
€11m
AEL (21)
€9m
ANO (25)
€7m
NS (15)
€5m
KAR (12)
€3m
EA (2)
€0m
DOX (1)
€0m
Aris's squad is €5m less valuable than AEK Larnaca's (€11m vs €16m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€14m
AN (12)
€8m
ON (9)
€7m
AL (10)
€7m
AL (9)
€7m
AEL (9)
€4m
ARI (8)
€3m
ANO (9)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
KAR (3)
€0m
EA (1)
€0m
DOX (0)
€0m
Aris's attack is €4m less valuable than AEK Larnaca's (€3m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (5)
€8m
ON (4)
€3m
ARI (5)
€3m
AN (4)
€3m
AL (4)
€2m
AL (6)
€2m
AEL (5)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
ANO (6)
€1m
KAR (3)
€1m
EA (0)
€0m
DOX (0)
€0m
Aris and AEK Larnaca have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€7m
AL (14)
€7m
AL (11)
€7m
ARI (13)
€5m
AN (14)
€5m
ON (10)
€5m
ANO (10)
€3m
AEL (7)
€3m
KAR (6)
€2m
NS (7)
€2m
EA (1)
€0m
DOX (1)
€0m
Aris's defence is €1m less valuable than AEK Larnaca's (€5m vs €7m).
Cyprus: 1. Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 1. Division stats & trends →
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Apoel Nicosia
Omonia Nicosia
Apollon Limassol
Pafos
AEL
Anorthosis
Nea Salamis
Ethnikos Achna
Karmiotissa
Doxa
Othellos
AE Zakakiou