The contest between Arka Gdynia and Lechia Gdansk is razor-thin, with the model favouring a home win at 36%. Draws and away wins trail at 29% and 36% respectively, making the outcome a genuine toss-up. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a modestly open game, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.6% probability. Arka’s home form shows they average 1.42 goals scored and concede 1.33 against similarly matched opposition, while Lechia, on the road, manage only 0.6 goals scored and 0.4 conceded versus comparable teams. The model’s suggested selections include Over 1.5 with a 75.7% chance and Under 3.5 with a 72.2% chance. The home win probability sits at 36%, the draw at 29%, and the away win at 36%. This balanced picture, coupled with recent form - Arka coming off a draw and Lechia riding a three-game winning streak - keeps the match highly unpredictable.
Results analysis
Arka Gdynia’s 1-0 victory over Lechia Gdansk kept the model’s home-win prediction on target, as the final score of 1-0 matched the actual result. The model had given the home side a 36% chance, equal to the away side, and called the win correctly. The match extended Arka’s recent form, coming off a draw, while Lechia continued a three-game winning streak. The model’s suggested picks saw Over 1.5 miss despite a 75.7% probability, whereas Under 3.5 hit with a 72.2% chance. The most likely score of 1-1, with a 13.6% probability, was not realized, but the overall call remained accurate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Arka Gdynia win✓ Hit
35.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lechia Gdansk win✗ Miss
35.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Arka Gdynia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.20
1.47
1.13
1.73
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.47
1.53
1.42
1.33
1.57
1.86
vs Weaker (11)
1.82
0.64
1.67
0.33
1.88
0.75
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Lechia Gdansk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lechia Gdansk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.23
1.33
0.87
0.80
1.60
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
2.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
3.33
vs Similar (16)
1.00
0.88
1.18
1.09
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (10)
1.50
1.30
2.00
0.33
1.29
1.71
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Arka Gdynia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.7%
Under 1.5
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.7%
Under 2.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.8%
Under 3.5
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.4%
No
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
2-1
8.3%
0-0
8.2%
1-2
8.2%
1-0 ✓
8.1%
0-1
8.0%
2-0
6.2%
0-2
6.1%
Arka Gdynia goals ↓
Lechia Gdansk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
8.0%
6.1%
2.7%
0.9%
1
8.1%
14%
8.2%
3.6%
1.2%
2
6.2%
8.3%
5.5%
2.4%
0.8%
3
2.8%
3.7%
2.4%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.9%
1.2%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arka Gdynia goals (down), columns = Lechia Gdansk goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lechia Gdansk
2.00
GKS Katowice
1.82
Arka Gdynia
1.81
Motor Lublin
1.67
Górnik Łęczna
1.60
Odra Opole
1.51
Miedz Legnica
1.50
Tychy 71
1.50
Wisla Plock
1.50
Wisla Krakow
1.47
Stal Rzeszów
1.41
Chrobry Głogów
1.24
Znicz Pruszków
1.24
Nieciecza
1.21
Polonia Warszawa
1.03
Resovia Rzeszów
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.68
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.47
Arka Gdynia is 0.19 points worse than Lechia Gdansk in terms of average points per game (1.81 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
GKS Katowice
2.00
Wisla Krakow
1.82
Lechia Gdansk
1.76
Nieciecza
1.65
Arka Gdynia
1.58
Stal Rzeszów
1.56
Miedz Legnica
1.53
Motor Lublin
1.42
Wisla Plock
1.35
Tychy 71
1.26
Odra Opole
1.26
Polonia Warszawa
1.21
Resovia Rzeszów
1.15
Chrobry Głogów
1.03
Górnik Łęczna
1.00
Znicz Pruszków
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.76
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.62
Arka Gdynia is 0.18 goals worse than Lechia Gdansk in terms of goals scored per game (1.58 vs 1.76).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Górnik Łęczna
0.83
Lechia Gdansk
1.00
Odra Opole
1.03
GKS Katowice
1.03
Arka Gdynia
1.06
Miedz Legnica
1.06
Motor Lublin
1.19
Znicz Pruszków
1.29
Wisla Plock
1.35
Tychy 71
1.38
Chrobry Głogów
1.44
Polonia Warszawa
1.47
Wisla Krakow
1.47
Nieciecza
1.53
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.62
Podbeskidzie
1.74
Stal Rzeszów
1.76
Resovia Rzeszów
1.76
Arka Gdynia is 0.06 goals worse than Lechia Gdansk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.06 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Arka Gdynia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.67
0.73
0.60
0.93
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.84
0.67
0.75
0.86
1.00
vs Weaker (11)
1.00
0.36
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Lechia Gdansk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lechia Gdansk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.53
0.33
0.40
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.31
0.44
0.18
0.55
0.60
0.20
vs Weaker (10)
0.60
0.60
1.00
0.00
0.43
0.86
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Arka Gdynia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arka Gdynia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arka Gdynia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arka Gdynia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lechia Gdansk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lechia Gdansk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lechia Gdansk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Arka Gdynia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.53
0.73
0.53
0.80
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.68
0.75
0.58
0.71
0.86
vs Weaker (11)
0.82
0.27
0.67
0.33
0.88
0.25
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Lechia Gdansk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lechia Gdansk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
1.00
0.47
0.40
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.75
1.00
0.00
0.00
2.33
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.44
1.00
0.55
0.00
0.20
vs Weaker (10)
0.90
0.70
1.00
0.33
0.86
0.86
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Arka Gdynia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arka Gdynia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arka Gdynia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arka Gdynia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lechia Gdansk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lechia Gdansk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lechia Gdansk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Arka Gdynia · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Vladislavs Gutkovskis25%
Oskar Kubiak21%
Nazariy Rusyn17%
Eduardo Espiau14%
Dawid Kocyła10%
Sebastian Kerk9%
Marc Navarro7%
Dawid Abramowicz7%
Kamil Jakubczyk6%
Michał Marcjanik6%
Luis Perea5%
Kike Hermoso5%
Dawid Gojny5%
Aurélien Nguiamba0%
Tornike Gaprindashvili0%
Patryk Szysz0%
Michał Rzuchowski0%
Serafin Szota0%
Szymon Sobczak0%
Damian Węglarz0%
João Oliveira0%
Dominick Zator0%
Julien Celestine0%
Jędrzej Grobelny0%
Alassane Sidibe0%
Diego Percan0%
Hide Vitalucci0%
Marcel Predenkiewicz0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Julien Celestine62%
Kamil Jakubczyk29%
Tornike Gaprindashvili24%
Dawid Gojny23%
Diego Percan22%
Aurélien Nguiamba21%
Kike Hermoso19%
Alassane Sidibe19%
Nazariy Rusyn17%
Luis Perea16%
Marc Navarro14%
Dawid Abramowicz14%
Jędrzej Grobelny14%
Vladislavs Gutkovskis12%
Michał Marcjanik12%
Michał Rzuchowski11%
Dominick Zator11%
Eduardo Espiau10%
Serafin Szota10%
Sebastian Kerk9%
Oskar Kubiak7%
Dawid Kocyła6%
Patryk Szysz0%
Szymon Sobczak0%
Damian Węglarz0%
João Oliveira0%
Hide Vitalucci0%
Marcel Predenkiewicz0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sebastian Kerk18%
Marc Navarro14%
Diego Percan11%
Kike Hermoso10%
Dawid Abramowicz7%
Oskar Kubiak7%
Vladislavs Gutkovskis6%
Tornike Gaprindashvili6%
Luis Perea5%
Dawid Gojny5%
Patryk Szysz4%
Kamil Jakubczyk3%
Nazariy Rusyn0%
Aurélien Nguiamba0%
Michał Marcjanik0%
Michał Rzuchowski0%
Serafin Szota0%
Szymon Sobczak0%
Damian Węglarz0%
João Oliveira0%
Dominick Zator0%
Julien Celestine0%
Dawid Kocyła0%
Jędrzej Grobelny0%
Alassane Sidibe0%
Eduardo Espiau0%
Hide Vitalucci0%
Marcel Predenkiewicz0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Vladislavs Gutkovskis31%
Oskar Kubiak14%
Nazariy Rusyn13%
Dawid Abramowicz7%
Kamil Jakubczyk6%
Sebastian Kerk6%
Kike Hermoso5%
Eduardo Espiau3%
Dawid Kocyła3%
Marc Navarro0%
Aurélien Nguiamba0%
Tornike Gaprindashvili0%
Michał Marcjanik0%
Patryk Szysz0%
Dawid Gojny0%
Michał Rzuchowski0%
Serafin Szota0%
Szymon Sobczak0%
Damian Węglarz0%
Luis Perea0%
João Oliveira0%
Dominick Zator0%
Julien Celestine0%
Jędrzej Grobelny0%
Alassane Sidibe0%
Diego Percan0%
Hide Vitalucci0%
Marcel Predenkiewicz0%
Lechia Gdansk · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tomáš Bobček47%
Ivan Zhelyzko23%
Rifet Kapić16%
Dawid Kurminowski13%
Camilo Mena13%
Kacper Sezonienko13%
Aleksandar Ćirković12%
Mohamed Awadalla12%
Bogdan Viunnyk12%
Tomasz Neugebauer9%
Bujar Pllana6%
Matej Rodin4%
Maksym Diachuk4%
Matúš Vojtko3%
Miłosz Kałahur0%
Alvis Jaunzems0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Elias Olsson0%
Bartłomiej Kłudka0%
Szymon Weirauch0%
Tomasz Wójtowicz0%
Anton Tsarenko0%
Michal Głogowski0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Miłosz Kałahur33%
Ivan Zhelyzko30%
Rifet Kapić25%
Elias Olsson25%
Mohamed Awadalla25%
Bujar Pllana24%
Camilo Mena19%
Matúš Vojtko19%
Tomasz Neugebauer19%
Tomáš Bobček17%
Maksym Diachuk15%
Kacper Sezonienko13%
Aleksandar Ćirković12%
Matej Rodin12%
Tomasz Wójtowicz9%
Dawid Kurminowski9%
Alex Paulsen8%
Bogdan Viunnyk8%
Bartłomiej Kłudka6%
Alvis Jaunzems0%
Szymon Weirauch0%
Anton Tsarenko0%
Michal Głogowski0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Camilo Mena23%
Tomáš Bobček17%
Aleksandar Ćirković17%
Ivan Zhelyzko17%
Anton Tsarenko14%
Elias Olsson12%
Matej Rodin12%
Alvis Jaunzems11%
Matúš Vojtko10%
Rifet Kapić9%
Kacper Sezonienko6%
Tomasz Neugebauer6%
Dawid Kurminowski4%
Maksym Diachuk4%
Miłosz Kałahur0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Bogdan Viunnyk0%
Bujar Pllana0%
Bartłomiej Kłudka0%
Szymon Weirauch0%
Tomasz Wójtowicz0%
Michal Głogowski0%
Mohamed Awadalla0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tomáš Bobček57%
Aleksandar Ćirković21%
Camilo Mena13%
Ivan Zhelyzko10%
Bogdan Viunnyk8%
Matej Rodin8%
Bujar Pllana6%
Dawid Kurminowski4%
Miłosz Kałahur0%
Matúš Vojtko0%
Alvis Jaunzems0%
Rifet Kapić0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Maksym Diachuk0%
Elias Olsson0%
Kacper Sezonienko0%
Bartłomiej Kłudka0%
Szymon Weirauch0%
Tomasz Neugebauer0%
Tomasz Wójtowicz0%
Anton Tsarenko0%
Michal Głogowski0%
Mohamed Awadalla0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (20)
€22m
ML (20)
€19m
WK (24)
€13m
GK (26)
€13m
WP (25)
€12m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
POD (5)
€1m
Arka Gdynia's squad is €17m less valuable than Lechia Gdansk's (€5m vs €22m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (8)
€15m
ML (10)
€10m
WK (8)
€6m
WP (7)
€4m
GK (7)
€3m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
POD (1)
€0m
Arka Gdynia's attack is €13m less valuable than Lechia Gdansk's (€2m vs €15m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GK (10)
€6m
LG (3)
€5m
WP (9)
€3m
ML (2)
€2m
WK (4)
€2m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
Arka Gdynia's midfield is €4m less valuable than Lechia Gdansk's (€1m vs €5m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ML (8)
€6m
WP (9)
€6m
WK (12)
€5m
GK (9)
€4m
LG (9)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
POD (2)
€0m
Arka Gdynia and Lechia Gdansk have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Poland: I Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
GKS Katowice
Motor Lublin
Górnik Łęczna
Odra Opole
Miedz Legnica
Wisla Plock
Tychy 71
Wisla Krakow
Stal Rzeszów
Znicz Pruszków
Chrobry Głogów
Nieciecza
Polonia Warszawa
Resovia Rzeszów
Podbeskidzie
Zaglebie Sosnowiec