Arminia Bielefeld are favoured to win, with a 49% chance of triumph, a 27% chance of a draw and a 24% chance of a St. Pauli victory. The model expects 2.7 goals on average, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.8% probability. Arminia, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.5 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded, while St. Pauli, in their recent away form, has struggled to find the net, conceding 1.5 and scoring 0.5 against stronger sides. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.3% with a 4% edge), Under 6.5 (97.9% with a 3% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (96.7% with a 4% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.5% with a 5% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (95.7% with a 4% edge), Under 5.5 (94.2% with a 5% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (93.8% with a 4% edge).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Arminia Bielefeld win
48.7%
Avg Implied 41.9% · @ 2.23
Edge
+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.29
Pinnacle
2.29
Betano
2.27
10Bet
2.25
Superbet
2.25
Draw
26.7%
Avg Implied 26.2% · @ 3.55
Edge
+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.73
Betfair
3.70
10Bet
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Betano
3.60
FC St. Pauli win
24.6%
Avg Implied 31.9% · @ 2.92
Edge
-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
3.10
Unibet
3.05
Pinnacle
3.01
Betano
3.00
Dafabet
2.95
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Arminia Bielefeld
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.57
2.00
1.07
1.06
2.00
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.00
1.50
0.50
0.67
3.00
vs Similar (25)
1.60
1.48
2.08
1.17
1.15
1.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (FC St. Pauli) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC St. Pauli
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.77
0.87
1.67
0.80
1.87
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
2.27
0.80
1.80
0.83
2.67
vs Similar (19)
0.84
1.47
0.90
1.60
0.78
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Arminia Bielefeld) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.5%
@ 1.18-1.8%
Under 1.5
22.5%
@ 4.53+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Pinnacle
1.19
Under
Pinnacle
4.94
Superbet
4.80
BetVictor
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
52.3%
@ 1.61-6.0%
Under 2.5
47.7%
@ 2.26+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
Unibet
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.36
Superbet
2.32
Betano
2.30
Betfair
2.30
Marathonbet
2.27
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
30.2%
@ 2.49-7.4%
Under 3.5
69.8%
@ 1.50+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.60
Betano
2.57
10Bet
2.55
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.52
Under
Pinnacle
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Betano
1.53
Betfair
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Both teams to score
Yes
55.6%
@ 1.51-5.9%
No
44.4%
@ 2.41+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Betano
1.52
Betfair
1.50
No
Superbet
2.45
Betano
2.45
Betfair
2.45
BetVictor
2.45
1xBet
2.44
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%@ 6.70+6.0%
2-1
9.6%@ 8.39+4.2%
1-0
9.2%@ 9.69+4.6%
2-0
8.6%@ 11.95+4.8%
0-0
7.4%@ 13.34+4.1%
1-2
6.5%@ 9.79+1.9%
0-1
5.8%@ 11.23+1.9%
2-2
5.3%@ 10.88+1.2%
Arminia Bielefeld goals ↓
FC St. Pauli goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
5.8%
3.9%
1.5%
0.4%
1
9.2%
13%
6.5%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.6%
9.6%
5.3%
2.0%
0.6%
3
4.7%
5.3%
2.9%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.9%
2.2%
1.2%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arminia Bielefeld goals (down), columns = FC St. Pauli goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
VfL Wolfsburg
2.14
Hannover 96
1.76
1. FC Heidenheim
1.64
FC St. Pauli
1.58
SV Darmstadt 98
1.53
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.53
Hertha BSC
1.50
1. FC Nürnberg
1.35
VfL Bochum
1.29
Karlsruher SC
1.29
Holstein Kiel
1.21
Dynamo Dresden
1.21
Arminia Bielefeld
1.15
1. FC Magdeburg
1.15
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.11
Energie Cottbus
1.09
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.09
VfL Osnabrück
1.07
Arminia Bielefeld is 0.44 points worse than FC St. Pauli in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.58).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
VfL Wolfsburg
2.18
Hannover 96
1.76
SV Darmstadt 98
1.68
1. FC Heidenheim
1.67
FC St. Pauli
1.62
Dynamo Dresden
1.59
Arminia Bielefeld
1.56
Karlsruher SC
1.56
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.53
1. FC Magdeburg
1.53
VfL Bochum
1.44
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.42
Hertha BSC
1.38
1. FC Nürnberg
1.38
Holstein Kiel
1.29
Energie Cottbus
1.12
VfL Osnabrück
1.09
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.06
Arminia Bielefeld is 0.06 goals worse than FC St. Pauli in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 1.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
VfL Wolfsburg
0.93
1. FC Heidenheim
1.21
FC St. Pauli
1.26
Hannover 96
1.29
Hertha BSC
1.29
SV Darmstadt 98
1.32
1. FC Nürnberg
1.32
VfL Bochum
1.38
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.38
Holstein Kiel
1.41
Arminia Bielefeld
1.50
Dynamo Dresden
1.56
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.59
1. FC Magdeburg
1.71
Energie Cottbus
1.82
VfL Osnabrück
1.87
Karlsruher SC
1.88
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.92
Arminia Bielefeld is 0.24 goals worse than FC St. Pauli in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Hannover 96
56%
1. FC Magdeburg
54%
Arminia Bielefeld
52%
Holstein Kiel
52%
SV Darmstadt 98
51%
Dynamo Dresden
50%
1. FC Nürnberg
49%
Hertha BSC
49%
Karlsruher SC
48%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
48%
1. FC Kaiserslautern
48%
VfL Bochum
46%
Eintracht Braunschweig
44%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Arminia Bielefeld
For 6.8 · Against 4.4 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 2.4 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 13.8 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC St. Pauli
For 5.7 · Against 5.3 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.6 · Against 8.0 · Total 16.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arminia Bielefeld
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.3
10.9
3.3
3.4
3.3
26.4
26.6
26.2
vs Stronger (7)
10.6
6.5
13.3
2.3
2.3
2.2
21.6
25.0
19.3
vs Similar (43)
10.6
10.8
10.4
3.5
3.5
3.5
27.1
26.8
27.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
62%
61%
63%
44%
44%
44%
81%
83%
79%
% under line
38%
39%
37%
56%
56%
56%
19%
17%
21%
This opponent (FC St. Pauli) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC St. Pauli
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
10.1
9.1
3.6
3.9
3.3
19.7
19.3
20.2
vs Stronger (20)
8.8
8.5
9.1
3.4
4.1
2.6
20.1
21.0
18.9
vs Similar (30)
10.2
11.3
9.1
3.8
3.7
3.8
19.5
18.0
21.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
50%
54%
46%
50%
42%
34%
35%
33%
% under line
48%
50%
46%
54%
50%
58%
66%
65%
67%
This opponent (Arminia Bielefeld) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Energie Cottbus
13.7
VfL Wolfsburg
11.7
VfL Osnabrück
10.9
Dynamo Dresden
10.7
VfL Bochum
10.5
Hannover 96
10.5
SV Darmstadt 98
10.5
Hertha BSC
10.4
1. FC Kaiserslautern
10.3
Eintracht Braunschweig
10.2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
10.2
Holstein Kiel
10.1
1. FC Magdeburg
10.0
Arminia Bielefeld
9.9
FC St. Pauli
9.6
1. FC Nürnberg
9.6
Karlsruher SC
9.4
1. FC Heidenheim
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Holstein Kiel
5.4
Eintracht Braunschweig
5.1
1. FC Kaiserslautern
5.0
1. FC Nürnberg
4.9
VfL Bochum
4.9
Hannover 96
4.8
Hertha BSC
4.8
1. FC Magdeburg
4.7
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
4.6
VfL Osnabrück
4.6
Karlsruher SC
4.6
Dynamo Dresden
4.2
Arminia Bielefeld
4.2
SV Darmstadt 98
4.0
FC St. Pauli
3.7
1. FC Heidenheim
3.7
VfL Wolfsburg
3.6
Energie Cottbus
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Holstein Kiel
26.5
Energie Cottbus
26.3
Hannover 96
26.2
Arminia Bielefeld
25.6
1. FC Kaiserslautern
25.4
VfL Osnabrück
25.2
1. FC Nürnberg
24.9
Eintracht Braunschweig
24.4
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
24.3
Hertha BSC
24.1
1. FC Magdeburg
23.7
SV Darmstadt 98
23.6
Karlsruher SC
23.2
Dynamo Dresden
23.1
VfL Bochum
23.0
VfL Wolfsburg
20.7
1. FC Heidenheim
20.5
FC St. Pauli
19.7
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
57.6%
@ 1.60-0.1%
Under 9.5
42.4%
@ 2.19+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.64
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.58
Under
Betano
2.25
Unibet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.21
1xBet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.15
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.6%
Under 3.5
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
67.7%
Under 21.5
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Arminia Bielefeld or Draw
71.5%
Avg Implied 68.2% · @ 1.37
Edge
+3.3%
49%
27%
25%
covers Arminia Bielefeld + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Betfair
1.40
1xBet
1.38
Arminia Bielefeld or FC St. Pauli
72.3%
Avg Implied 74.2% · @ 1.26
Edge
-1.9%
49%
27%
25%
covers Arminia Bielefeld + FC St. Pauli
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Draw or FC St. Pauli
56.2%
Avg Implied 57.6% · @ 1.62
Edge
-1.4%
49%
27%
25%
covers Draw + FC St. Pauli
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.65
Betfair
1.62
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 0.5
Over
78.2%
@ 1.17-1.1%
Under
21.8%
@ 4.50+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.20
Pinnacle
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
Under
Pinnacle
4.93
Superbet
4.60
1xBet
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 1.5
Over
45.1%
@ 1.88-4.4%
Under
54.9%
@ 1.84+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.94
10Bet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Betano
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.89
Superbet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Betano
1.85
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 2.5
Over
19.8%
@ 3.82-4.6%
Under
80.2%
@ 1.23+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.00
Pinnacle
3.96
10Bet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.84
1xBet
3.84
Under
Pinnacle
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 3.5
Over
6.9%
@ 8.50-4.1%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.05+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
8.50
1xBet
8.50
Betfair
8.50
Superbet
8.10
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
FC St. Pauli over/under 0.5
Over
69.6%
@ 1.25-4.8%
Under
30.4%
@ 3.61+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.90
BetVictor
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.64
FC St. Pauli over/under 1.5
Over
33.4%
@ 2.25-8.2%
Under
66.6%
@ 1.59+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.28
Unibet
2.28
Superbet
2.27
Betfair
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.63
Marathonbet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Betano
1.62
FC St. Pauli over/under 2.5
Over
11.8%
@ 4.96-6.9%
Under
88.2%
@ 1.14+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
5.15
1xBet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
Under
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Pinnacle
1.16
Superbet
1.15
BetVictor
1.14
FC St. Pauli over/under 3.5
Over
3.3%
@ 11.42-5.0%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.04+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Arminia Bielefeld, so a minus line means Arminia Bielefeld give that many goals of a start and FC St. Pauli receive them. At -1, Arminia Bielefeld must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Arminia Bielefeld win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Arminia Bielefeld)
Arminia Bielefeld -2
9.0%
@ 8.52-1.6%
Draw -2
13.6%
@ 6.16-1.0%
FC St. Pauli +2
77.5%
@ 1.20+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
10Bet
8.50
Marathonbet
8.10
Unibet
8.00
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.45
10Bet
6.00
Superbet
5.90
Away
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Handicap -1 (Arminia Bielefeld)
Arminia Bielefeld -1
22.5%
@ 3.92-0.2%
Draw -1
21.3%
@ 4.03-0.8%
FC St. Pauli +1
56.2%
@ 1.61+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.95
Superbet
3.80
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.10
Superbet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Away
Superbet
1.64
Unibet
1.63
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Handicap +1 (Arminia Bielefeld)
Arminia Bielefeld +1
71.5%
@ 1.38+6.3%
Draw +1
16.3%
@ 4.68-2.8%
FC St. Pauli -1
12.1%
@ 5.72-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Betfair
1.36
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.85
Marathonbet
4.75
Unibet
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Away
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Unibet
5.80
Marathonbet
5.55
10Bet
5.50
Handicap +2 (Arminia Bielefeld)
Arminia Bielefeld +2
87.9%
@ 1.11+5.2%
Draw +2
8.2%
@ 8.75-2.2%
FC St. Pauli -2
3.9%
@ 13.50-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.10
Draw
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
8.50
Away
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
13.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Arminia Bielefeld
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.83
0.71
0.71
0.56
0.94
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.80
0.67
0.75
0.69
0.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (FC St. Pauli) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC St. Pauli
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.63
0.20
0.53
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
0.73
0.40
0.20
0.17
1.17
vs Similar (19)
0.37
0.58
0.10
0.70
0.67
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Arminia Bielefeld) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.6%
@ 1.29+1.3%
Under 0.5
26.4%
@ 3.37-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
William Hil
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Under
Betfair
3.60
Superbet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.30
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.9%
@ 2.35-0.6%
Under 1.5
61.1%
@ 1.54+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.47
Pinnacle
2.47
William Hil
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Superbet
2.35
Under
Betfair
1.57
Superbet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.9%
@ 5.29-4.6%
Under 2.5
87.1%
@ 1.12+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Betano
5.30
Superbet
5.25
1xBet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.12
Betfair
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 0.5 HT
Over
54.1%
@ 1.80+2.5%
Under
45.9%
@ 1.92-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
10Bet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Under
Pinnacle
2.00
Superbet
1.95
Unibet
1.92
10Bet
1.91
Betano
1.90
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.9%
@ 5.00-3.6%
Under
85.1%
@ 1.14+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.20
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.90
Superbet
4.70
Under
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.14
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.7%
@ 13.25-3.4%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.02+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
15.00
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
FC St. Pauli over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.2%
@ 2.00+0.8%
Under
52.8%
@ 1.73-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.10
Betano
2.05
Unibet
2.02
1xBet
1.97
Superbet
1.97
Under
Pinnacle
1.78
10Bet
1.75
Superbet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
FC St. Pauli over/under 1.5 HT
Over
15.0%
@ 6.08-0.2%
Under
85.0%
@ 1.09+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.35
1xBet
6.35
10Bet
6.00
Superbet
5.90
Betano
5.80
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
FC St. Pauli over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.7%
@ 17.25-3.9%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
21.00
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Arminia Bielefeld
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.73
1.29
0.36
0.50
1.06
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (25)
0.92
0.68
1.42
0.42
0.46
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (FC St. Pauli) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC St. Pauli
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.13
0.67
1.13
0.33
1.13
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
1.55
0.40
1.60
0.67
1.50
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.89
0.80
0.90
0.11
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Arminia Bielefeld) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.2%
@ 1.17+0.1%
Under 0.5
19.8%
@ 4.71-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
Under
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.75
1xBet
4.75
Betano
4.70
Superbet
4.70
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.2%
@ 1.83+0.2%
Under 1.5
48.8%
@ 1.90-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Unibet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.81
Under
Betano
1.98
Marathonbet
1.94
1xBet
1.94
Superbet
1.92
William Hil
1.85
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.2%
@ 3.50-2.3%
Under 2.5
75.8%
@ 1.26+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.55
William Hil
3.50
Marathonbet
3.42
1xBet
3.42
Under
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 0.5 2H
Over
63.5%
@ 1.55+3.6%
Under
36.5%
@ 2.32-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Under
Betano
2.37
Superbet
2.32
10Bet
2.30
1xBet
2.28
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 1.5 2H
Over
25.8%
@ 3.59+0.0%
Under
74.2%
@ 1.25-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.64
1xBet
3.60
Superbet
3.60
Betano
3.45
Under
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.9%
@ 9.25-3.2%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.03+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
10Bet
9.50
Superbet
9.50
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
FC St. Pauli over/under 0.5 2H
Over
50.7%
@ 1.68-4.4%
Under
49.3%
@ 2.07+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Under
10Bet
2.10
Betano
2.10
Superbet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.05
1xBet
2.03
FC St. Pauli over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.7%
@ 4.33-5.6%
Under
84.3%
@ 1.18+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.45
1xBet
4.40
Superbet
4.35
10Bet
4.33
Betano
4.10
Under
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
FC St. Pauli over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.5%
@ 11.50-4.7%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.03+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
10Bet
12.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.9%
Under 6.5
97.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+3.5%
Away under 3.5 goals
96.7%
1.04
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
-
-
+5.0%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.5%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+4.7%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.4%
Under 5.5
94.2%
1.05
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
BetVictor
1.04
+5.5%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.1%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+3.2%
Home under 3.5 goals
93.1%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
+4.1%
Away under 2.5 goals
88.2%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Pinnacle
1.16
Superbet
1.15
BetVictor
1.14
+6.9%
Home +2 handicap
87.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.10
-
-
-
+5.2%
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.1%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.12
Betfair
1.11
+4.6%
Under 4.5
86.1%
1.19
Pinnacle
1.22
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
+7.2%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.1%
1.14
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.14
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
+3.6%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
85.0%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
+0.2%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.3%
1.18
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
+5.6%
Over 19.5 fouls
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
80.2%
1.23
Pinnacle
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
+4.6%
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.2%
1.17
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
+0.1%
Home over 0.5 goals
78.2%
1.17
Betano
1.20
Pinnacle
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
-1.1%
Over 2.5 cards
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.5%
1.18
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Pinnacle
1.19
-1.8%
Away +2 handicap
77.5%
1.20
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.20
+2.6%
Under 5.5 cards
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
75.8%
1.26
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
+2.3%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
74.2%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
-0.0%
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.6%
1.29
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
William Hil
1.29
1xBet
1.28
+1.3%
Home or Away
72.3%
1.26
Superbet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
-1.9%
Home or Draw
71.5%
1.37
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Betfair
1.40
1xBet
1.38
+3.3%
Home +1 handicap
71.5%
1.38
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Betfair
1.36
+6.3%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Arminia Bielefeld
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joel Grodowski50%
Marvin Mehlem25%
Stefano Russo25%
Marius Wörl25%
Sam Schreck0%
Arne Sicker0%
Maximilian Bauer0%
Tim Handwerker0%
Roberts Uldriķis0%
Isaiah Young0%
Jonas Thomas Kersken0%
Jannik Rochelt0%
Monju Momuluh0%
Maximilian Großer0%
Henri Koudossou0%
Benjamin Boakye0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Arne Sicker33%
Sam Schreck25%
Tim Handwerker25%
Joel Grodowski25%
Benjamin Boakye25%
Marvin Mehlem0%
Maximilian Bauer0%
Roberts Uldriķis0%
Stefano Russo0%
Isaiah Young0%
Jonas Thomas Kersken0%
Jannik Rochelt0%
Monju Momuluh0%
Maximilian Großer0%
Henri Koudossou0%
Marius Wörl0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Maximilian Bauer25%
Isaiah Young25%
Henri Koudossou25%
Sam Schreck0%
Arne Sicker0%
Marvin Mehlem0%
Tim Handwerker0%
Roberts Uldriķis0%
Stefano Russo0%
Joel Grodowski0%
Jonas Thomas Kersken0%
Jannik Rochelt0%
Monju Momuluh0%
Maximilian Großer0%
Benjamin Boakye0%
Marius Wörl0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joel Grodowski50%
Sam Schreck0%
Arne Sicker0%
Marvin Mehlem0%
Maximilian Bauer0%
Tim Handwerker0%
Roberts Uldriķis0%
Stefano Russo0%
Isaiah Young0%
Jonas Thomas Kersken0%
Jannik Rochelt0%
Monju Momuluh0%
Maximilian Großer0%
Henri Koudossou0%
Benjamin Boakye0%
Marius Wörl0%
FC St. Pauli
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Taichi Hara25%
Martijn Kaars25%
Marcus Mathisen25%
Branimir Hrgota0%
David Nemeth0%
Eric Smith0%
Mathias Rasmussen0%
Ben Voll0%
Ricky-Jade Jones0%
Joel Chima Fujita0%
Arkadiusz Pyrka0%
Louis Oppie0%
Tomoya Ando0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcus Mathisen50%
Arkadiusz Pyrka50%
Ricky-Jade Jones33%
Joel Chima Fujita33%
David Nemeth25%
Mathias Rasmussen25%
Tomoya Ando25%
Branimir Hrgota0%
Eric Smith0%
Taichi Hara0%
Martijn Kaars0%
Ben Voll0%
Louis Oppie0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Branimir Hrgota25%
Taichi Hara25%
Arkadiusz Pyrka25%
David Nemeth0%
Eric Smith0%
Mathias Rasmussen0%
Martijn Kaars0%
Marcus Mathisen0%
Ben Voll0%
Ricky-Jade Jones0%
Joel Chima Fujita0%
Louis Oppie0%
Tomoya Ando0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Martijn Kaars75%
Branimir Hrgota25%
David Nemeth0%
Eric Smith0%
Mathias Rasmussen0%
Taichi Hara0%
Marcus Mathisen0%
Ben Voll0%
Ricky-Jade Jones0%
Joel Chima Fujita0%
Arkadiusz Pyrka0%
Louis Oppie0%
Tomoya Ando0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VW (33)
€154m
FSP (27)
€46m
1FN (28)
€40m
HK (32)
€34m
1FH (26)
€33m
H9 (26)
€33m
KS (25)
€31m
1FK (26)
€28m
HB (24)
€25m
SD9 (28)
€24m
1FM (26)
€21m
EB (27)
€21m
VB (24)
€19m
DD (26)
€19m
SGF (24)
€19m
AB (23)
€18m
EC (26)
€11m
VO (25)
€10m
Arminia Bielefeld's squad is €29m less valuable than FC St. Pauli's (€18m vs €46m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VW (10)
€56m
KS (7)
€16m
1FH (11)
€15m
1FN (9)
€14m
HK (12)
€12m
1FK (9)
€12m
1FM (9)
€10m
FSP (7)
€10m
H9 (9)
€10m
SD9 (11)
€9m
HB (8)
€8m
EB (8)
€7m
AB (8)
€7m
DD (8)
€6m
VB (9)
€6m
VO (9)
€5m
EC (10)
€4m
SGF (6)
€4m
Arminia Bielefeld's attack is €3m less valuable than FC St. Pauli's (€7m vs €10m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VW (8)
€32m
FSP (8)
€15m
1FN (6)
€13m
H9 (8)
€11m
HK (5)
€7m
1FH (4)
€7m
SD9 (4)
€6m
SGF (8)
€5m
VB (4)
€5m
1FK (6)
€5m
EB (7)
€5m
DD (4)
€4m
KS (6)
€4m
1FM (4)
€4m
AB (5)
€4m
HB (6)
€3m
VO (7)
€3m
EC (4)
€2m
Arminia Bielefeld's midfield is €12m less valuable than FC St. Pauli's (€4m vs €15m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VW (15)
€66m
FSP (12)
€21m
HK (15)
€16m
HB (10)
€13m
1FN (13)
€12m
1FH (11)
€12m
H9 (9)
€12m
KS (12)
€12m
1FK (11)
€11m
SGF (10)
€9m
EB (12)
€9m
SD9 (13)
€8m
DD (14)
€8m
VB (11)
€8m
AB (10)
€7m
1FM (13)
€7m
EC (12)
€5m
VO (9)
€3m
Arminia Bielefeld's defence is €14m less valuable than FC St. Pauli's (€7m vs €21m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
1. FC Nürnberg
Hertha BSC
VfL Wolfsburg
1. FC Heidenheim
1. FC Magdeburg
1. FC Kaiserslautern
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Karlsruher SC
Eintracht Braunschweig
VfL Bochum
Energie Cottbus
Hannover 96
VfL Osnabrück
Dynamo Dresden
Holstein Kiel
SV Darmstadt 98