Arminia Bielefeld’s recent 3-0 win over Energie Cottbus shows a team eager to maintain momentum, yet Hertha BSC, riding a two-game winning streak, looks poised to capitalize on their higher average away scoring of 2.08 versus 1.58 for Bielefeld. The model projects a 46% chance of an away win, 29% for a home win and 25% for a draw, making the away victory the clear favourite. With an expected 3.2 goals, the most likely total is three, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.5% probability. The match is expected to be high-scoring, as both sides have conceded roughly 1.3 goals on average against similar opponents. Suggested selections include Over 1.5 goals at 83.3%, Over 19.5 fouls at 85.3%, Over 2.5 cards at 84.7%, Under 11.5 corners at 71.7%, and Over 21.5 fouls at 73.3%. Each probability is presented as a percentage, with no other outcome tied to a win.
Results analysis
The upset came as Arminia Bielefeld, coming off a win, turned the tables on the pre-match favourite, Hertha BSC, who had been on a two-game winning run. The final score was 6-1, a home win that left the model’s pick of an away win incorrect. The model had given Hertha a 46 % chance of victory, but the game ended in a decisive 6-1 triumph for Bielefeld. Among the model’s selections, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 85.3 %, Over 2.5 cards hit at 84.7 %, Over 1.5 hit at 83.3 %, Over 21.5 fouls missed at 73.3 %, and Under 11.5 corners hit at 71.7 %. The prediction of an away win was wrong.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Arminia Bielefeld win✓ Hit
28.7%
Avg Implied 54.1% · @ 1.70
Edge
-25.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.2%
Avg Implied 22.5% · @ 4.08
Edge
+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hertha BSC win✗ Miss
46.1%
Avg Implied 23.4% · @ 3.93
Edge
+22.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Arminia Bielefeld
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.57
1.57
1.21
1.06
1.88
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.50
1.50
0.50
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (26)
1.35
1.58
1.58
1.33
1.14
1.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Hertha BSC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hertha BSC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.20
1.00
1.12
2.07
1.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.46
1.21
0.93
1.13
2.08
1.31
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Arminia Bielefeld) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.3%
Under 1.5
16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.0%
@ 1.34-8.1%
Under 2.5
39.0%
@ 2.99+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.6%
Under 3.5
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.1%
No
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
1-2
9.3%
2-1
7.2%
0-2
6.8%
0-1
6.6%
2-2
6.4%
1-3
5.5%
0-0
5.3%
Arminia Bielefeld goals ↓
Hertha BSC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
6.6%
6.8%
4.0%
1.8%
1
4.8%
11%
9.3%
5.5%
2.5%
2
4.0%
7.2%
6.4%
3.8%
1.7%
3
1.8%
3.3%
2.9%
1.7%
0.8%
4
0.6%
1.1%
1.0%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arminia Bielefeld goals (down), columns = Hertha BSC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Schalke 04
2.06
SV Elversberg
1.82
SC Paderborn 07
1.82
Hannover 96
1.76
SV Darmstadt 98
1.53
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.53
Hertha BSC
1.50
Rot-Weiß Essen
1.50
1. FC Nürnberg
1.35
Karlsruher SC
1.29
VfL Bochum
1.29
Holstein Kiel
1.21
Dynamo Dresden
1.21
1. FC Magdeburg
1.15
Arminia Bielefeld
1.15
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.11
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.09
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.09
Preußen Münster
0.88
Arminia Bielefeld is 0.35 points worse than Hertha BSC in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
SV Elversberg
1.88
Hannover 96
1.76
SC Paderborn 07
1.74
SV Darmstadt 98
1.68
Dynamo Dresden
1.59
Arminia Bielefeld
1.56
Karlsruher SC
1.56
1. FC Magdeburg
1.53
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.53
FC Schalke 04
1.47
VfL Bochum
1.44
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.42
Hertha BSC
1.38
1. FC Nürnberg
1.38
Holstein Kiel
1.29
Preußen Münster
1.12
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.06
Fortuna Düsseldorf
0.97
Rot-Weiß Essen
0.50
Arminia Bielefeld is 0.18 goals better than Hertha BSC in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 1.38).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Schalke 04
0.91
Rot-Weiß Essen
1.00
SV Elversberg
1.15
Hertha BSC
1.29
Hannover 96
1.29
SV Darmstadt 98
1.32
SC Paderborn 07
1.32
1. FC Nürnberg
1.32
VfL Bochum
1.38
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.38
Holstein Kiel
1.41
Arminia Bielefeld
1.50
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.56
Dynamo Dresden
1.56
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.59
1. FC Magdeburg
1.71
Preußen Münster
1.79
Karlsruher SC
1.88
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.92
Arminia Bielefeld is 0.21 goals worse than Hertha BSC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Hannover 96
56%
1. FC Magdeburg
54%
SV Elversberg
53%
SC Paderborn 07
53%
Arminia Bielefeld
52%
Holstein Kiel
52%
Preußen Münster
52%
SV Darmstadt 98
51%
Dynamo Dresden
50%
1. FC Nürnberg
49%
Fortuna Düsseldorf
49%
Hertha BSC
49%
Karlsruher SC
48%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
48%
1. FC Kaiserslautern
48%
FC Schalke 04
46%
VfL Bochum
46%
Eintracht Braunschweig
44%
Rot-Weiß Essen
39%
Arminia Bielefeld is 3.1 percentage points better than Hertha BSC in terms of average possession (52% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Arminia Bielefeld
For 5.4 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.4 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 12.9 · Total 24.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hertha BSC
For 4.1 · Against 6.3 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 11.5 · Total 22.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arminia Bielefeld
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
9.8
10.8
3.1
3.1
3.1
26.6
26.8
26.5
vs Stronger (7)
10.5
6.5
14.5
2.0
1.8
2.3
22.0
25.0
19.0
vs Similar (43)
10.3
10.3
10.3
3.3
3.3
3.2
27.2
27.0
27.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
58%
56%
59%
42%
40%
44%
85%
88%
82%
% under line
42%
44%
41%
58%
60%
56%
15%
12%
18%
This opponent (Hertha BSC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hertha BSC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
10.7
10.7
4.4
4.4
4.4
24.2
23.3
25.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (43)
10.4
10.8
9.9
4.4
4.2
4.6
24.0
23.4
24.7
vs Weaker (7)
12.6
9.0
13.2
4.0
7.0
3.5
25.9
21.0
26.7
% over line
60%
60%
60%
66%
64%
68%
70%
68%
72%
% under line
40%
40%
40%
34%
36%
32%
30%
32%
28%
This opponent (Arminia Bielefeld) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
VfL Bochum
10.7
Hertha BSC
10.7
Dynamo Dresden
10.6
1. FC Magdeburg
10.3
1. FC Kaiserslautern
10.3
SV Darmstadt 98
10.3
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
10.2
Hannover 96
10.2
Holstein Kiel
10.1
Eintracht Braunschweig
10.1
Arminia Bielefeld
9.9
Preußen Münster
9.9
SC Paderborn 07
9.8
1. FC Nürnberg
9.7
FC Schalke 04
9.7
SV Elversberg
9.6
Karlsruher SC
9.2
Fortuna Düsseldorf
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Preußen Münster
5.6
Eintracht Braunschweig
5.3
Holstein Kiel
5.2
1. FC Kaiserslautern
5.1
1. FC Nürnberg
4.9
Hannover 96
4.8
Fortuna Düsseldorf
4.8
VfL Bochum
4.7
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
4.7
1. FC Magdeburg
4.6
SC Paderborn 07
4.6
SV Elversberg
4.6
Karlsruher SC
4.5
FC Schalke 04
4.5
Hertha BSC
4.4
SV Darmstadt 98
4.3
Arminia Bielefeld
4.2
Dynamo Dresden
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Preußen Münster
26.7
Hannover 96
26.6
Holstein Kiel
25.8
1. FC Kaiserslautern
25.6
Arminia Bielefeld
25.4
1. FC Nürnberg
25.1
Eintracht Braunschweig
24.8
SC Paderborn 07
24.5
Hertha BSC
24.2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
24.2
SV Elversberg
24.0
SV Darmstadt 98
23.7
FC Schalke 04
23.7
1. FC Magdeburg
23.5
Dynamo Dresden
23.4
Karlsruher SC
23.1
VfL Bochum
23.0
Fortuna Düsseldorf
22.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
51.9%
Under 9.5
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
68.9%
Under 3.5
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
73.3%
Under 21.5
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Arminia Bielefeld
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.57
0.71
0.62
0.69
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.73
0.50
0.75
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Hertha BSC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hertha BSC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.44
0.38
1.00
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.68
0.54
0.40
0.40
1.00
0.69
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Arminia Bielefeld) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hertha BSC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hertha BSC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hertha BSC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Arminia Bielefeld
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.87
1.00
0.50
0.44
1.19
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.73
0.85
1.08
0.58
0.43
1.07
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Hertha BSC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hertha BSC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.70
0.56
0.75
1.07
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.79
0.68
0.53
0.73
1.08
0.62
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Arminia Bielefeld) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hertha BSC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hertha BSC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hertha BSC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HB (35)
€60m
SP0 (31)
€53m
H9 (32)
€51m
VB (32)
€47m
HK (34)
€38m
KS (27)
€36m
SD9 (24)
€32m
SGF (35)
€27m
EB (29)
€23m
AB (28)
€18m
PM (31)
€16m
RE (27)
€8m
Arminia Bielefeld's squad is €43m less valuable than Hertha BSC's (€18m vs €60m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VB (10)
€19m
SD9 (9)
€17m
KS (8)
€16m
HB (7)
€14m
H9 (10)
€13m
SGF (9)
€12m
HK (8)
€10m
SP0 (11)
€10m
EB (11)
€9m
AB (12)
€8m
PM (8)
€4m
RE (11)
€4m
Arminia Bielefeld's attack is €5m less valuable than Hertha BSC's (€8m vs €14m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HB (10)
€27m
H9 (11)
€25m
SP0 (9)
€21m
VB (9)
€19m
HK (9)
€12m
SD9 (5)
€8m
SGF (10)
€7m
KS (8)
€5m
PM (8)
€4m
EB (5)
€4m
AB (4)
€2m
RE (5)
€1m
Arminia Bielefeld's midfield is €25m less valuable than Hertha BSC's (€2m vs €27m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SP0 (11)
€22m
HB (18)
€20m
HK (17)
€15m
KS (11)
€15m
H9 (11)
€13m
VB (13)
€10m
EB (13)
€9m
SGF (16)
€9m
SD9 (10)
€8m
PM (15)
€7m
AB (12)
€7m
RE (11)
€3m
Arminia Bielefeld's defence is €13m less valuable than Hertha BSC's (€7m vs €20m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Schalke 04
SV Elversberg
SC Paderborn 07
Hannover 96
SV Darmstadt 98
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1. FC Nürnberg
VfL Bochum
Karlsruher SC
Dynamo Dresden
Holstein Kiel
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1. FC Magdeburg
Eintracht Braunschweig
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Preußen Münster
Rot-Weiß Essen