This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boavista
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.83
1.20
1.80
1.33
1.87
vs Stronger (23)
0.83
1.83
1.00
1.69
0.60
2.00
vs Similar (7)
2.71
1.86
2.50
2.50
2.80
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Arouca) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.7%
Under 1.5
14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.1%
@ 1.87+14.5%
Under 2.5
34.9%
@ 1.92-14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.1%
Under 3.5
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.5%
No
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.3%
2-1 ✓
9.6%
2-0
7.3%
3-1
6.5%
2-2
6.3%
1-0
6.2%
1-2
6.1%
3-0
5.0%
Arouca goals ↓
Boavista goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.4%
3.7%
3.0%
1.3%
0.4%
1
6.2%
10%
6.1%
2.7%
0.9%
2
7.3%
9.6%
6.3%
2.7%
0.9%
3
5.0%
6.5%
4.3%
1.9%
0.6%
4
2.5%
3.3%
2.2%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arouca goals (down), columns = Boavista goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AVS
3.00
Sporting CP
2.65
Benfica
2.35
FC Porto
2.12
SC Braga
2.00
Guimaraes
1.85
Moreirense
1.62
Arouca
1.35
Famalicao
1.24
Casa Pia
1.12
Farense
1.09
Rio Ave
1.09
GIL Vicente
1.06
Estoril
0.97
Estrela
0.97
Boavista
0.94
Portimonense
0.89
Vizela
0.76
Chaves
0.68
Arouca is 0.41 points better than Boavista in terms of average points per game (1.35 vs 0.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.82
Benfica
2.26
SC Braga
2.09
AVS
2.00
FC Porto
1.85
Arouca
1.59
Guimaraes
1.53
Estoril
1.44
Farense
1.35
GIL Vicente
1.24
Boavista
1.15
Portimonense
1.14
Casa Pia
1.12
Rio Ave
1.12
Famalicao
1.09
Vizela
1.06
Moreirense
1.06
Estrela
0.97
Chaves
0.91
Arouca is 0.44 goals better than Boavista in terms of goals scored per game (1.59 vs 1.15).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.79
Benfica
0.82
Sporting CP
0.85
AVS
1.00
Moreirense
1.03
Guimaraes
1.12
Famalicao
1.21
Rio Ave
1.26
Casa Pia
1.47
SC Braga
1.47
Arouca
1.47
Farense
1.50
GIL Vicente
1.53
Estrela
1.56
Estoril
1.71
Boavista
1.82
Vizela
1.94
Portimonense
2.11
Chaves
2.12
Arouca is 0.35 goals better than Boavista in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.82).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Porto
64%
Benfica
59%
Sporting CP
59%
SC Braga
57%
Arouca
54%
Vizela
50%
GIL Vicente
49%
Rio Ave
49%
Estoril
49%
Guimaraes
48%
Boavista
48%
Famalicao
47%
Estrela
47%
Moreirense
46%
Portimonense
46%
Casa Pia
44%
Chaves
43%
Farense
42%
AVS
35%
Arouca is 6.3 percentage points better than Boavista in terms of average possession (54% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Arouca
For 4.4 · Against 3.8 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.3 · Against 12.1 · Total 26.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Boavista
For 4.9 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 3.3 · Total 5.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.8 · Against 13.7 · Total 28.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arouca
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.0
9.5
3.4
3.2
3.7
26.3
26.7
25.8
vs Stronger (15)
9.1
7.0
11.2
3.8
3.4
4.1
25.0
26.8
23.2
vs Similar (28)
9.6
10.2
9.0
3.2
3.1
3.4
26.9
26.7
27.2
vs Weaker (7)
7.7
8.0
7.5
3.4
3.0
3.8
26.7
27.0
26.5
% over line
40%
40%
40%
42%
44%
40%
80%
87%
73%
% under line
60%
60%
60%
58%
56%
60%
20%
13%
27%
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boavista
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
9.9
10.3
3.3
3.8
2.7
29.1
29.6
28.6
vs Stronger (38)
9.9
9.3
10.6
3.5
4.2
2.6
29.1
29.9
28.2
vs Similar (12)
10.8
13.5
9.5
2.6
2.0
2.9
29.0
28.0
29.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
50%
43%
50%
52%
48%
96%
100%
93%
% under line
54%
50%
57%
50%
48%
52%
4%
0%
7%
This opponent (Arouca) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Farense
11.8
AVS
11.6
Estrela
11.0
Chaves
10.9
Guimaraes
10.8
Benfica
10.6
Vizela
10.5
Portimonense
10.5
FC Porto
10.4
Estoril
10.3
Rio Ave
10.1
Casa Pia
10.0
GIL Vicente
9.8
Moreirense
9.8
Boavista
9.8
Famalicao
9.6
SC Braga
9.5
Arouca
9.3
Sporting CP
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Famalicao
6.5
FC Porto
6.4
Boavista
6.4
Guimaraes
6.0
Arouca
5.9
Chaves
5.9
Vizela
5.8
Estoril
5.8
Farense
5.6
Portimonense
5.6
Estrela
5.5
AVS
5.4
Rio Ave
5.4
GIL Vicente
5.3
Sporting CP
5.3
Benfica
5.0
Moreirense
4.9
SC Braga
4.9
Casa Pia
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Famalicao
31.4
Chaves
30.8
Rio Ave
30.6
Boavista
29.3
Farense
28.8
FC Porto
28.6
Vizela
28.5
Arouca
28.0
Guimaraes
27.9
Moreirense
27.7
Portimonense
27.6
AVS
27.2
Estoril
27.0
Estrela
26.6
GIL Vicente
26.4
Casa Pia
26.4
SC Braga
24.3
Sporting CP
24.1
Benfica
22.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
51.3%
Under 9.5
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
75.0%
Under 3.5
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
85.6%
Under 21.5
14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Arouca
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.67
0.67
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
0.90
0.60
0.80
0.60
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.76
0.78
0.67
0.38
0.88
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boavista
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.53
1.00
0.87
0.67
vs Stronger (23)
0.39
0.91
0.31
0.92
0.50
0.90
vs Similar (7)
1.71
0.57
2.00
1.50
1.60
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Arouca) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arouca over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Arouca
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.63
1.00
0.87
1.00
0.40
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
0.90
0.40
1.20
0.80
0.60
vs Similar (17)
1.18
0.47
1.44
0.56
0.88
0.38
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
0.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boavista
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.00
0.67
0.80
0.47
1.20
vs Stronger (23)
0.43
0.91
0.69
0.77
0.10
1.10
vs Similar (7)
1.00
1.29
0.50
1.00
1.20
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Arouca) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arouca over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Arouca
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rafa Mújica50%
Cristo González35%
Jason18%
André Bukia10%
Morlaye Sylla9%
Matías Rocha9%
Tiago Esgaio7%
Weverson4%
Pedro Santos4%
Francisco Montero3%
Oriol Busquets0%
Kouassi Eboue0%
David Simão0%
Yusuf Lawal0%
Robson Bambu0%
Nino Galović0%
Yaw Moses0%
Pedro Moreira0%
Benji Michel0%
Ignacio de Arruabarrena0%
Vladislav Morozov0%
Mateus Quaresma0%
Miguel Puche0%
Bogdan Milovanov0%
Alfonso Trezza0%
Vitinho0%
Rafael Fernandes0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Francisco Montero31%
David Simão28%
Morlaye Sylla25%
Pedro Santos25%
Alfonso Trezza21%
Kouassi Eboue20%
Pedro Moreira20%
Mateus Quaresma17%
Weverson15%
Tiago Esgaio14%
Bogdan Milovanov14%
Rafa Mújica13%
Ignacio de Arruabarrena13%
Cristo González12%
Jason12%
Oriol Busquets11%
Nino Galović11%
Robson Bambu10%
Matías Rocha9%
Rafael Fernandes9%
Yusuf Lawal6%
Yaw Moses0%
André Bukia0%
Benji Michel0%
Vladislav Morozov0%
Miguel Puche0%
Vitinho0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cristo González24%
David Simão19%
Mateus Quaresma17%
Jason15%
Morlaye Sylla12%
Tiago Esgaio11%
André Bukia10%
Rafa Mújica10%
Yusuf Lawal6%
Nino Galović6%
Weverson4%
Francisco Montero3%
Oriol Busquets0%
Kouassi Eboue0%
Robson Bambu0%
Yaw Moses0%
Pedro Moreira0%
Benji Michel0%
Ignacio de Arruabarrena0%
Vladislav Morozov0%
Miguel Puche0%
Bogdan Milovanov0%
Alfonso Trezza0%
Matías Rocha0%
Vitinho0%
Pedro Santos0%
Rafael Fernandes0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rafa Mújica50%
Cristo González32%
Jason21%
Mateus Quaresma17%
Morlaye Sylla6%
Miguel Puche4%
David Simão3%
Francisco Montero0%
Oriol Busquets0%
Kouassi Eboue0%
Yusuf Lawal0%
Robson Bambu0%
Nino Galović0%
Yaw Moses0%
André Bukia0%
Pedro Moreira0%
Benji Michel0%
Ignacio de Arruabarrena0%
Vladislav Morozov0%
Tiago Esgaio0%
Bogdan Milovanov0%
Alfonso Trezza0%
Weverson0%
Matías Rocha0%
Vitinho0%
Pedro Santos0%
Rafael Fernandes0%
Boavista
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tiago Morais35%
Róbert Boženík19%
Bruno Lourenço16%
Vincent Sasso12%
Salvador Agra10%
Miguel Reisinho10%
Pedro Malheiro9%
Joel Silva7%
Rodrigo Abascal7%
Gaius Makouta7%
Martim Tavares5%
Ilija Vukotić4%
Masaki Watai0%
Ibrahima Camará0%
Filipe Ferreira0%
Chidozie Awaziem0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Jeriel De Santis0%
João Gonçalves0%
Luís Santos0%
Bruno Onyemaechi0%
Berna0%
Machado0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sebastián Pérez46%
Pedro Malheiro35%
Gaius Makouta30%
Rodrigo Abascal28%
Chidozie Awaziem25%
Salvador Agra23%
Miguel Reisinho23%
Ilija Vukotić18%
Vincent Sasso18%
Tiago Morais18%
Jeriel De Santis17%
Luís Santos16%
Filipe Ferreira15%
Róbert Boženík13%
Bruno Lourenço12%
Bruno Onyemaechi12%
João Gonçalves12%
Berna11%
Joel Silva7%
Ibrahima Camará7%
Martim Tavares5%
Masaki Watai0%
Machado0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tiago Morais12%
Martim Tavares9%
Pedro Malheiro9%
Gaius Makouta7%
Miguel Reisinho6%
Róbert Boženík6%
Luís Santos5%
Chidozie Awaziem4%
Bruno Onyemaechi4%
Filipe Ferreira4%
Salvador Agra3%
Bruno Lourenço3%
Masaki Watai0%
Ibrahima Camará0%
Vincent Sasso0%
Ilija Vukotić0%
Rodrigo Abascal0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Jeriel De Santis0%
João Gonçalves0%
Berna0%
Joel Silva0%
Machado0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Róbert Boženík42%
Tiago Morais6%
Martim Tavares5%
Pedro Malheiro4%
Rodrigo Abascal3%
Bruno Lourenço3%
Masaki Watai0%
Salvador Agra0%
Ibrahima Camará0%
Vincent Sasso0%
Filipe Ferreira0%
Ilija Vukotić0%
Gaius Makouta0%
Miguel Reisinho0%
Chidozie Awaziem0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Jeriel De Santis0%
João Gonçalves0%
Luís Santos0%
Bruno Onyemaechi0%
Berna0%
Joel Silva0%
Machado0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
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Sporting CP
Benfica
FC Porto
SC Braga
Guimaraes
Moreirense
Famalicao
Casa Pia
Farense
Rio Ave
GIL Vicente
Estoril
Estrela
Portimonense
Vizela
Chaves
AVS