This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Braga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.03
1.81
0.94
1.07
1.14
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
2.40
0.33
1.67
0.50
3.50
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (25)
1.68
0.76
2.15
0.77
1.17
0.75
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Arouca) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.5%
Under 1.5
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.7%
@ 1.93+7.5%
Under 2.5
43.3%
@ 1.87-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.3%
Under 3.5
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.5%
No
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
8.3%
0-1
8.2%
2-1
6.4%
0-0
6.3%
1-3
5.8%
2-2
5.7%
Arouca goals ↓
SC Braga goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
8.2%
8.3%
4.9%
2.2%
1
5.0%
12%
9.7%
5.8%
2.6%
2
3.6%
6.4%
5.7%
3.4%
1.5%
3
1.4%
2.5%
2.2%
1.3%
0.6%
4
0.4%
0.7%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arouca goals (down), columns = SC Braga goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.68
Sporting CP
2.50
Benfica
2.18
SC Braga
1.91
GIL Vicente
1.50
Guimaraes
1.41
Santa Clara
1.18
Famalicao
1.15
Estoril
1.15
Portimonense
1.12
Maritimo
1.12
Boavista
1.12
Pacos Ferreira
1.12
Vizela
0.97
Arouca
0.91
Moreirense
0.85
Tondela
0.82
Belenenses
0.76
Arouca is 1.00 points worse than SC Braga in terms of average points per game (0.91 vs 1.91).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Porto
2.53
Benfica
2.29
Sporting CP
2.15
SC Braga
1.53
Guimaraes
1.47
GIL Vicente
1.38
Famalicao
1.32
Tondela
1.21
Maritimo
1.15
Boavista
1.15
Santa Clara
1.12
Vizela
1.09
Estoril
1.06
Moreirense
0.97
Portimonense
0.91
Arouca
0.88
Pacos Ferreira
0.85
Belenenses
0.68
Arouca is 0.65 goals worse than SC Braga in terms of goals scored per game (0.88 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.65
Sporting CP
0.68
Benfica
0.88
SC Braga
0.91
Guimaraes
1.21
GIL Vicente
1.24
Estoril
1.26
Maritimo
1.29
Pacos Ferreira
1.29
Portimonense
1.32
Famalicao
1.50
Moreirense
1.50
Boavista
1.53
Santa Clara
1.59
Arouca
1.59
Belenenses
1.62
Vizela
1.71
Tondela
1.97
Arouca is 0.68 goals worse than SC Braga in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 0.91).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Arouca
For 5.5 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 4.0 · Total 7.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.1 · Against 15.6 · Total 31.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SC Braga
For 4.5 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 3.2 · Total 6.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 12.5 · Total 26.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arouca
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.4
9.6
2.1
1.8
2.4
31.3
32.6
30.2
vs Stronger (15)
8.5
9.5
7.5
1.3
1.4
1.3
27.8
31.0
24.5
vs Similar (21)
10.4
11.0
10.0
3.3
2.8
3.7
32.0
32.2
31.8
vs Weaker (14)
7.5
3.0
12.0
1.2
1.0
1.4
35.5
37.0
34.0
% over line
47%
57%
38%
26%
24%
28%
93%
100%
88%
% under line
53%
43%
62%
74%
76%
72%
7%
0%
12%
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Braga
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.5
9.6
5.1
6.0
4.2
29.1
29.2
29.0
vs Stronger (10)
8.4
8.8
8.0
6.5
8.2
4.8
30.0
30.8
29.2
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (40)
9.8
9.7
10.0
4.8
5.4
4.0
28.9
28.8
28.9
% over line
48%
54%
42%
72%
81%
62%
92%
92%
92%
% under line
52%
46%
58%
28%
19%
38%
8%
8%
8%
This opponent (Arouca) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Vizela
10.9
Estoril
10.4
Guimaraes
10.4
GIL Vicente
10.1
Boavista
10.0
Belenenses
9.9
Pacos Ferreira
9.8
Moreirense
9.7
Santa Clara
9.6
Benfica
9.6
SC Braga
9.6
Arouca
9.5
Portimonense
9.5
FC Porto
9.3
Tondela
9.3
Sporting CP
9.2
Famalicao
9.0
Maritimo
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Arouca
7.1
Famalicao
6.5
Maritimo
6.3
Sporting CP
6.1
Tondela
5.7
Moreirense
5.6
Vizela
5.6
FC Porto
5.6
Boavista
5.6
Santa Clara
5.4
Estoril
5.4
GIL Vicente
5.4
Belenenses
5.2
Portimonense
5.2
SC Braga
5.1
Guimaraes
4.9
Pacos Ferreira
4.6
Benfica
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Maritimo
35.7
Santa Clara
32.3
Boavista
32.1
Famalicao
32.0
Sporting CP
32.0
Pacos Ferreira
31.8
Estoril
31.6
Arouca
31.3
Guimaraes
31.3
FC Porto
31.2
Portimonense
30.9
Tondela
30.3
Moreirense
30.0
Belenenses
29.9
SC Braga
29.1
Benfica
28.8
GIL Vicente
28.7
Vizela
27.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
46.7%
Under 9.5
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
83.7%
Under 3.5
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
94.6%
Under 21.5
5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Arouca
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.13
0.71
1.00
0.44
1.25
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
1.44
0.25
1.50
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (14)
0.71
1.29
0.67
1.17
0.75
1.38
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.43
1.25
0.25
0.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Braga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.43
0.94
0.31
0.71
0.57
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.40
0.00
0.67
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (25)
0.96
0.24
1.15
0.23
0.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Arouca) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arouca over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Arouca
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.80
0.64
0.79
0.25
0.81
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
1.00
0.75
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.79
0.67
0.67
0.38
0.88
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.57
0.50
0.75
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Braga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.88
0.62
0.36
0.57
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (25)
0.72
0.52
1.00
0.54
0.42
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Arouca) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arouca over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Arouca · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ivan Barbero75%
Jose Fontán25%
Dylan Nandín25%
Espen Van Ee25%
Javi Sánchez0%
Orest Lebedenko0%
Naïs Djouahra0%
Ignacio de Arruabarrena0%
Tiago Esgaio0%
Pablo Gozálbez0%
Brian Mansilla0%
Alfonso Trezza0%
Taichi Fukui0%
Pedro Santos0%
Hyun-ju Lee0%
Mateo Flores0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Javi Sánchez50%
Dylan Nandín50%
Hyun-ju Lee33%
Ivan Barbero25%
Orest Lebedenko25%
Ignacio de Arruabarrena25%
Naïs Djouahra0%
Tiago Esgaio0%
Pablo Gozálbez0%
Brian Mansilla0%
Jose Fontán0%
Alfonso Trezza0%
Taichi Fukui0%
Pedro Santos0%
Mateo Flores0%
Espen Van Ee0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Naïs Djouahra50%
Hyun-ju Lee33%
Pablo Gozálbez25%
Alfonso Trezza25%
Javi Sánchez0%
Ivan Barbero0%
Orest Lebedenko0%
Ignacio de Arruabarrena0%
Tiago Esgaio0%
Brian Mansilla0%
Jose Fontán0%
Dylan Nandín0%
Taichi Fukui0%
Pedro Santos0%
Mateo Flores0%
Espen Van Ee0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ivan Barbero25%
Naïs Djouahra25%
Taichi Fukui25%
Javi Sánchez0%
Orest Lebedenko0%
Ignacio de Arruabarrena0%
Tiago Esgaio0%
Pablo Gozálbez0%
Brian Mansilla0%
Jose Fontán0%
Alfonso Trezza0%
Dylan Nandín0%
Pedro Santos0%
Hyun-ju Lee0%
Mateo Flores0%
Espen Van Ee0%
SC Braga · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Diego Rodrigues67%
Pau Víctor50%
Fran Navarro25%
João Moutinho0%
Vítor Carvalho0%
Gustaf Lagerbielke0%
Victor Gómez0%
Adrian Bajrami0%
Gabriel Silva0%
Demir Ege Tıknaz0%
Diogo Travassos0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Mario Dorgeles0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Fran Navarro25%
João Moutinho25%
Vítor Carvalho25%
Pau Víctor25%
Demir Ege Tıknaz25%
Diogo Travassos25%
Gustaf Lagerbielke0%
Victor Gómez0%
Adrian Bajrami0%
Gabriel Silva0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Diego Rodrigues0%
Mario Dorgeles0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vítor Carvalho25%
Gabriel Silva25%
Demir Ege Tıknaz25%
Mario Dorgeles25%
Fran Navarro0%
João Moutinho0%
Gustaf Lagerbielke0%
Victor Gómez0%
Adrian Bajrami0%
Pau Víctor0%
Diogo Travassos0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Diego Rodrigues0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fran Navarro0%
João Moutinho0%
Vítor Carvalho0%
Gustaf Lagerbielke0%
Victor Gómez0%
Adrian Bajrami0%
Pau Víctor0%
Gabriel Silva0%
Demir Ege Tıknaz0%
Diogo Travassos0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Diego Rodrigues0%
Mario Dorgeles0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
MAR (27)
€16m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
POR (20)
€6m
PF (13)
€2m
Arouca's squad is €137m less valuable than SC Braga's (€28m vs €165m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
SC (11)
€9m
MAR (10)
€7m
VIZ (13)
€5m
MOR (5)
€5m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
PF (3)
€1m
Arouca's attack is €30m less valuable than SC Braga's (€11m vs €41m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
SC (5)
€6m
MAR (6)
€3m
VIZ (5)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
Arouca's midfield is €48m less valuable than SC Braga's (€8m vs €56m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
POR (8)
€3m
PF (8)
€1m
Arouca's defence is €60m less valuable than SC Braga's (€8m vs €68m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
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FC Porto
Sporting CP
Benfica
GIL Vicente
Guimaraes
Santa Clara
Famalicao
Estoril
Maritimo
Boavista
Portimonense
Pacos Ferreira
Vizela
Moreirense
Tondela
Belenenses