PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Arsenal (Belarus) vs FC Dnepr Mogilev Result & Analysis

Date: 28/05/2023
Time: 11:00
Final 2-0
Arsenal (Belarus)
Arsenal (Belarus)
Vs
53%
22%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Dnepr Mogilev
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Belarus: 1. Division
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Arsenal (Belarus) win✓ Hit
52.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev win✗ Miss
25.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Arsenal (Belarus)Arsenal (Belarus)

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-532W13L51W40W43W21W10W10W32W30WH·ML 16/11A·ML 20/11H·SHA02/04H·OSI08/04H·ORS15/04A·BUM23/04H·VOL30/04A·FC 08/05H·ZHO14/05A·NIV21/05← Premier League1. Division →
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.331.691.251.001.43
vs Stronger (3)1.332.001.501.501.003.00
vs Similar (25)1.161.241.331.171.001.31
vs Weaker (2)4.001.504.001.50--
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L01L05L31W11D30W10W01L43W21WA·FC 30/10H·ARS06/11A·SLA12/11H·ORS02/04A·BUM08/04H·VOL15/04A·FC 22/04H·ZHO01/05A·NIV07/05H·LID21/05← Premier League1. Division →
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.102.171.312.190.862.14
vs Stronger (4)0.252.501.003.000.002.33
vs Similar (25)1.162.161.212.211.092.09
vs Weaker (1)3.001.003.001.00--
Clean sheet %10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal (Belarus)) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%15%21%3%07%117%221%319%415%518%6+
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.9%
Under 1.5
10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
72.9%
Under 2.5
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
52.3%
Under 3.5
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
71.0%
No
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.8%
1-1
8.6%
2-2
6.8%
3-1
6.6%
1-2
6.1%
2-0 ✓
5.7%
3-2
5.1%
1-0
4.3%
Arsenal (Belarus) goals ↓
FC Dnepr Mogilev goals →
01234
03.1%2.7%2.7%1.4%0.5%
14.3%8.6%6.1%3.1%1.2%
25.7%8.8%6.8%3.5%1.3%
34.3%6.6%5.1%2.6%1.0%
42.4%3.7%2.9%1.5%0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arsenal (Belarus) goals (down), columns = FC Dnepr Mogilev goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Arsenal (Belarus)
2.53
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.28
FC Vitebsk
2.28
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.94
ML Vitebsk
1.91
Baranovichi
1.50
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.44
Volna
1.34
Lida
1.28
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.28
Niva
1.28
Ostrovets FC
1.22
Bumprom
1.19
Orsha
0.97
Shakhtyor Petrikov
0.69
Slonim
0.69
Osipovichy
0.16
Arsenal (Belarus) is 0.25 points better than FC Dnepr Mogilev in terms of average points per game (2.53 vs 2.28).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Arsenal (Belarus)
2.69
ML Vitebsk
2.62
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.34
FC Vitebsk
2.12
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.94
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.72
Ostrovets FC
1.69
Niva
1.66
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.59
Orsha
1.56
Baranovichi
1.44
Bumprom
1.41
Lida
1.38
Volna
1.28
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.03
Slonim
0.81
Osipovichy
0.66
Arsenal (Belarus) is 0.34 goals better than FC Dnepr Mogilev in terms of goals scored per game (2.69 vs 2.34).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vitebsk
0.69
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.75
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.94
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.25
Lida
1.50
Baranovichi
1.53
Volna
1.53
ML Vitebsk
1.62
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.62
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.75
Orsha
1.94
Ostrovets FC
1.94
Bumprom
1.94
Slonim
1.97
Niva
2.06
Shakhtyor Petrikov
2.25
Osipovichy
2.66
Arsenal (Belarus) is 0.19 goals worse than FC Dnepr Mogilev in terms of goals conceded per game (0.94 vs 0.75).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Arsenal (Belarus)Arsenal (Belarus)

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L31W30W23L21W00D00D30W20WH·ML 16/11A·ML 20/11H·SHA02/04H·OSI08/04H·ORS15/04A·BUM23/04H·VOL30/04A·FC 08/05H·ZHO14/05A·NIV21/05← Premier League1. Division →
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.671.000.560.570.79
vs Stronger (3)0.670.331.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (25)0.680.640.750.500.620.77
vs Weaker (2)2.501.502.501.50--
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L02L30W01L10W00D01L11D11DA·FC 30/10H·ARS06/11A·SLA12/11H·ORS02/04A·BUM08/04H·VOL15/04A·FC 22/04H·ZHO01/05A·NIV07/05H·LID21/05← Premier League1. Division →
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.900.500.750.211.07
vs Stronger (4)0.001.250.000.000.001.67
vs Similar (25)0.320.880.360.860.270.91
vs Weaker (1)3.000.003.000.00--
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal (Belarus)) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arsenal (Belarus) over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal (Belarus) over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal (Belarus) over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Arsenal (Belarus)Arsenal (Belarus)

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L12L20W10W20W00D10W10W02L10WH·ML 16/11A·ML 20/11H·SHA02/04H·OSI08/04H·ORS15/04A·BUM23/04H·VOL30/04A·FC 08/05H·ZHO14/05A·NIV21/05← Premier League1. Division →
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.670.690.690.430.64
vs Stronger (3)0.671.670.501.501.002.00
vs Similar (25)0.480.600.580.670.380.54
vs Weaker (2)1.500.001.500.00--
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D03L01L10W20W10W00D32W10WA·FC 30/10H·ARS06/11A·SLA12/11H·ORS02/04A·BUM08/04H·VOL15/04A·FC 22/04H·ZHO01/05A·NIV07/05H·LID21/05← Premier League1. Division →
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.731.270.811.440.641.07
vs Stronger (4)0.251.251.003.000.000.67
vs Similar (25)0.841.280.861.360.821.18
vs Weaker (1)0.001.000.001.00--
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal (Belarus)) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arsenal (Belarus) over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal (Belarus) over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal (Belarus) over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.589.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.572.9%-------✗ Miss
BTTS Yes71.0%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
BAR (21)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
Arsenal (Belarus)'s squad is €2m less valuable than FC Dnepr Mogilev's (€2m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
FV (13)
€2m
FDM (9)
€1m
BAR (8)
€1m
NIV (5)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
Arsenal (Belarus) and FC Dnepr Mogilev have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
FDM (6)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
A( (5)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Arsenal (Belarus) and FC Dnepr Mogilev have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
BAR (9)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
Arsenal (Belarus) and FC Dnepr Mogilev have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
2
A( wins
0
Draws
0
FDM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Arsenal (Belarus) vs FC Dnepr Mogilev · H/A from A(
DateH/AGameScore
06/11/22AFC Dnepr Mogilev Vs A(0-1
10/07/22HA( Vs FC Dnepr Mogilev1-0

Arsenal (Belarus)Arsenal (Belarus)

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/05/23ANiva Vs A(0-3
14/05/23HA( Vs Zhodino Yuzhnoe3-2
08/05/23AFC Vitebsk Vs A(0-1
30/04/23HA( Vs Volna1-0
23/04/23ABumprom Vs A(1-2
15/04/23HA( Vs Orsha4-3
08/04/23HA( Vs Osipovichy4-0
02/04/23HA( Vs Shakhtyor Petrikov5-1
20/11/22AML Vitebsk Vs A(3-1
16/11/22HA( Vs ML Vitebsk3-2

FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/05/23HFDM Vs Lida2-1
07/05/23ANiva Vs FDM3-4
01/05/23HFDM Vs Zhodino Yuzhnoe0-1
22/04/23AFC Vitebsk Vs FDM0-1
15/04/23HFDM Vs Volna3-0
08/04/23ABumprom Vs FDM1-1
02/04/23HFDM Vs Orsha3-1
12/11/22ASlavia Mozyr Vs FDM5-0
06/11/22HFDM Vs Arsenal (Belarus)0-1
30/10/22AFC Minsk Vs FDM1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Arsenal (Belarus)
Arsenal (Belarus)
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 9 Wins / 0 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.25
HomeWWWWW1.38
AwayWLWWW1.11
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %35%38%32%
AVG goals2.482.762.16
Over 1.5 %68%71%63%
Over 2.5 %45%48%42%
Over 3.5 %22%33%11%
Scored1.121.430.79
Conceded1.351.331.37
BTTS45%52%37%
Clean Sheet28%29%26%
Corners---
Cards---
FC Dnepr Mogilev
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWW0.76
HomeLWWLW0.95
AwayLLDWW0.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%32%11%
AVG goals3.113.262.94
Over 1.5 %78%84%72%
Over 2.5 %59%63%56%
Over 3.5 %41%37%44%
Scored0.951.110.78
Conceded2.162.162.17
BTTS43%42%44%
Clean Sheet11%11%11%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Arsenal (Belarus)Arsenal (Belarus)3281
81%
2.5
8630+56
3.6
84%
69%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.70.9
-
2FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev3273
69%
2.3
7524+51
3.1
75%
56%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.30.8
-
3FC VitebskFC Vitebsk3273
72%
2.3
6822+46
2.8
72%
66%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2012.10.7
-
4Lokomotiv GomelLokomotiv Gomel3262
59%
1.9
5540+15
3.0
88%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.2
-
5ML VitebskML Vitebsk3261
59%
1.9
8452+32
4.2
94%
81%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
14
6352.61.6
-
6BaranovichiBaranovichi3248
44%
1.5
4649-3
3.0
81%
53%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.5
-
7Zhodino YuzhnoeZhodino Yuzhnoe3246
41%
1.4
6252+10
3.6
88%
72%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.6
-
8VolnaVolna3243
38%
1.3
4149-8
2.8
72%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.5
-
9LidaLida3241
38%
1.3
4448-4
2.9
72%
62%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.41.5
-
10Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Molodechno-DYuSSh 43241
34%
1.3
5156-5
3.3
88%
72%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.61.8
-
11NivaNiva3241
38%
1.3
5366-13
3.7
88%
69%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.72.1
-
12Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC3239
31%
1.2
5462-8
3.6
84%
69%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.71.9
-
13BumpromBumprom3238
31%
1.2
4562-17
3.3
88%
66%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.9
-
14OrshaOrsha3231
25%
1.0
5062-12
3.5
88%
75%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.61.9
-
15SlonimSlonim3222
16%
0.7
2663-37
2.8
62%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.82.0
-
16Shakhtyor PetrikovShakhtyor Petrikov3222
19%
0.7
3372-39
3.3
81%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
17OsipovichyOsipovichy325
3%
0.2
2185-64
3.3
84%
62%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.72.7
-
Belarus: 1. Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →

← all matches