Buducnost Podgorica's recent form note, coming off a defeat, hints at a potential bounce-back opportunity. However, their away performance, particularly conceding an average of 0.83 goals, may be a concern against a stronger opponent like Arsenal Tivat. The visitors have struggled at home, conceding an average of 1 goal per match.
The model predicts an away win with a 41% probability, making it the favourite. The model's selection is the away win, with a 41% chance of success. The expected total goals is 2.1, suggesting a low-scoring match. The most likely score is 1-1, occurring with a probability of 14.6%.
Arsenal Tivat's home scoring has averaged 0.82 goals, while conceding 1 goal. Buducnost Podgorica's away scoring has averaged 0.83 goals, while conceding 0.83 goals. The model's selection, the away win, has a 41% chance of success.
The model's suggested picks include Under 3.5, which has an 84.1% probability. The home win percentage is 27%, the draw percentage is 32%, and the away win percentage is 41%.
The draw between Arsenal Tivat and Buducnost Podgorica has extended the latter's run of consecutive draws, following their 0-0 stalemate at home. The match ended 0-0, with the actual result being a draw. In a major upset, the pre-match favourite did not come through, as the model's selection, an away win, was wrong, with a pre-match probability of 41%. The model's call was incorrect. The model's selection was the favourite. The suggested pick of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a probability of 84.2%, and a narrow edge of 4%.
Arsenal Tivat| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 1.27 | 0.85 | 1.00 | 0.88 | 1.47 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 1.17 | 1.50 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 1.67 | 2.67 |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.79 | 1.21 | 0.90 | 1.20 | 0.71 | 1.21 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+6pp vs league) | |||||
Buducnost Podgorica| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 0.97 | 1.12 | 0.94 | 0.71 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.73 | 0.87 | 0.86 | 0.57 | 0.62 | 1.12 |
| vs Weaker (15) | 1.13 | 1.07 | 1.33 | 1.22 | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
| Buducnost Podgorica goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 14% | 13% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 10% | 15% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 5.2% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Arsenal Tivat| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.30 | 0.50 | 0.31 | 0.46 | 0.29 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.29 | 0.54 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.21 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+32pp vs league) | |||||
Buducnost Podgorica| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.37 | 0.33 | 0.56 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0.43 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.20 | 0.40 | 0.29 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.62 |
| vs Weaker (15) | 0.53 | 0.27 | 0.78 | 0.33 | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| Clean sheet % | 73% (+42pp vs league) | |||||
Arsenal Tivat| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.77 | 0.54 | 0.54 | 0.59 | 0.94 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.83 | 1.17 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.71 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+16pp vs league) | |||||
Buducnost Podgorica| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.63 | 0.56 | 0.69 | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.53 | 0.47 | 0.57 | 0.43 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (15) | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.56 | 0.89 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+16pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 84.2% | 1.13 | 1.16 | 1.14 | 1.13 | 1.12 | 1.12 | +3.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Draw or Away | 72.9% | 1.29 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.29 | +1.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 25/02/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 18/10/25 | A | 4-2 | |
| 18/08/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 20/04/25 | A | 5-0 | |
| 26/02/25 | H | 1-5 | |
| 19/10/24 | A | 2-1 | |
| 17/08/24 | H | 0-2 |
Arsenal Tivat| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 02/08/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 24/05/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 20/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 0-1 |
Buducnost Podgorica| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 03/08/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 24/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 20/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 2-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Dečić | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 1.8 | 60% | 40% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | 0.2 | - |
| 2 | Mornar | 6 | 12 | 50% | 2.0 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 2.0 | 67% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | - |
| 3 | Bokelj | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0.8 | 17% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | - |
| 4 | Otrant-Olympic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 5 | Petrovac | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 1.2 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | - |
| 6 | Buducnost Podgorica | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1.2 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | - |
| 7 | Jezero | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1.4 | 40% | 40% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.4 | 1.0 | - |
| 8 | Sutjeska | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 2.6 | 40% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.4 | - |
| 9 | Arsenal Tivat | 5 | 4 | 0% | 0.8 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0.6 | 20% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | - |
| 10 | Mladost DG | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3.0 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - |