Arsenal Tivat’s defensive record shows they concede just over a goal per game, while Dečić’s away form keeps them below one goal a match, setting the stage for a tight, low-scoring affair. The model favours an away win, with a 38% chance versus 28% for a home victory and 34% for a draw. The expected total is 1.9 goals, centring on a 2-goal outcome that carries a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a 15.7% chance of that result. Arsenal Tivat averages 1.22 goals scored and 1.11 conceded at home against similarly strong opposition, while Dečić nets 0.92 and concedes 0.83 on the road. The model’s selection Under 3.5 has an 86.8% probability of hitting. Recent form hints at a turnaround: Arsenal Tivat are coming off a defeat, whereas Dečić are on a four-game winning streak. This match is expected to be a defensive stalemate, with the visitors holding the edge.
Results analysis
Arsenal Tivat’s recent form has been shaky, with a string of defeats leaving them on a losing streak, while Dečić has surged on a four-game winning run. The model predicted an away win with a 38% probability, and that call proved correct as Dečić edged Arsenal Tivat 0-1. The expected total of 1.9 goals matched the 1-goal outcome, and the most likely score of 0-1 was indeed the result. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals, with an 86.8% probability, also hit. All suggested picks settled as forecast, underscoring the accuracy of the Pythia predictions for this match.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Arsenal Tivat win✗ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
33.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dečić win✓ Hit
38.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Arsenal Tivat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.10
1.07
1.50
0.94
0.75
vs Stronger (9)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.50
1.00
1.60
vs Similar (17)
1.06
0.76
1.22
1.11
0.88
0.38
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dečić
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.07
1.19
1.38
0.79
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.09
1.26
1.27
1.73
0.92
0.83
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.43
1.00
0.60
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
59.0%
Under 1.5
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
30.7%
Under 2.5
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
13.2%
Under 3.5
86.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
39.5%
No
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
15.7%
1-1
14.7%
0-1 ✓
14.0%
1-0
11.3%
0-2
8.1%
1-2
7.1%
2-1
5.9%
2-0
5.5%
Arsenal Tivat goals ↓
Dečić goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
14%
8.1%
2.9%
0.8%
1
11%
15%
7.1%
2.5%
0.7%
2
5.5%
5.9%
3.1%
1.1%
0.3%
3
1.6%
1.7%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arsenal Tivat goals (down), columns = Dečić goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Otrant-Olympic
2.00
Dečić
1.94
Mornar
1.78
Buducnost Podgorica
1.69
Sutjeska
1.47
Jezero
1.42
Petrovac
1.33
Arsenal Tivat
1.17
Jedinstvo
1.03
Mladost DG
0.92
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.75
Mladost Lješkopolje
0.50
Arsenal Tivat is 0.78 points worse than Dečić in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Buducnost Podgorica
1.83
Dečić
1.53
Otrant-Olympic
1.50
Sutjeska
1.28
Mornar
1.25
Jedinstvo
1.21
Arsenal Tivat
1.19
Petrovac
1.17
Jezero
1.14
Mladost DG
1.03
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.69
Mladost Lješkopolje
0.50
Arsenal Tivat is 0.33 goals worse than Dečić in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.75
Mornar
0.89
Otrant-Olympic
1.00
Sutjeska
1.00
Jezero
1.06
Petrovac
1.11
Buducnost Podgorica
1.19
Jedinstvo
1.50
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.50
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.50
Arsenal Tivat
1.61
Mladost DG
1.63
Arsenal Tivat is 0.86 goals worse than Dečić in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 0.75).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Arsenal Tivat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.53
0.57
0.86
0.38
0.25
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
0.89
0.25
1.00
0.80
0.80
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.41
0.78
0.78
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.25
0.00
1.00
0.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dečić
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.43
0.56
0.56
0.29
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.43
0.48
0.55
0.64
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.29
0.60
0.40
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Arsenal Tivat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.50
0.64
0.56
0.50
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
1.11
0.75
1.50
0.20
0.80
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.35
0.44
0.33
0.88
0.38
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dečić
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.62
0.81
0.50
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.78
0.73
1.09
0.58
0.50
vs Weaker (7)
0.29
0.14
0.40
0.20
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
R( (3)
€0m
Arsenal Tivat's squad is €2m less valuable than Dečić's (€1m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Arsenal Tivat and Dečić have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
Arsenal Tivat and Dečić have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
JED (10)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
R( (2)
€0m
Arsenal Tivat's defence is €1m less valuable than Dečić's (€0m vs €2m).
Montenegro: First League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →