Arsenal Tivat’s defensive record at home shows they concede less than a goal per game, while Dečić’s away form has them allowing just under a goal on average. The model favours an away win, with a 41% chance for Dečić, a 32% draw probability and a 26% chance of a home victory. The expected total goals is 2.1, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.6% chance. Arsenal Tivat, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.33 goals scored and 0.75 conceded. Dečić, away, averages 0.77 goals scored and 0.92 conceded. The model’s selection includes Under 3.5 with an 84.4% probability. The home win percentage is 26%, the draw 32%, and the away win 41%.
Results analysis
Arsenal Tivat’s win was a surprise, overturning the pre-match favourite of an away victory that the model had assigned a 41% chance. The final score was 1-0, giving the home side a narrow triumph. The model’s call was therefore wrong. Arsenal Tivat entered the game coming off a defeat, while Dečić were on a four-game winning streak. The model’s only other selection, Under 3.5 goals, hit its mark with an 84.4% probability. The match delivered the expected 1-0 result, keeping the total goals well below the 2.1 expectation.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Arsenal Tivat win✓ Hit
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dečić win✗ Miss
41.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Arsenal Tivat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.23
1.13
1.13
0.93
1.33
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
2.17
0.33
2.67
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (24)
1.12
1.00
1.33
0.75
0.92
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dečić
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.87
1.00
0.80
0.80
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.78
0.89
0.79
0.86
0.77
0.92
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
4.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
62.6%
Under 1.5
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
34.2%
Under 2.5
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.6%
Under 3.5
84.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
42.2%
No
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
13.9%
0-1
13.5%
1-0 ✓
9.9%
0-2
8.8%
1-2
7.8%
2-1
5.9%
2-0
5.0%
Arsenal Tivat goals ↓
Dečić goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
14%
8.8%
3.4%
1.0%
1
9.9%
15%
7.8%
3.1%
0.9%
2
5.0%
5.9%
3.5%
1.4%
0.4%
3
1.5%
1.8%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arsenal Tivat goals (down), columns = Dečić goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Buducnost Podgorica
2.36
Petrovac
1.67
Sutjeska
1.42
Dečić
1.33
Bokelj
1.22
Mornar
1.22
Arsenal Tivat
1.21
Jedinstvo
1.19
Jezero
1.18
Otrant-Olympic
0.97
Lovćen
0.50
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.00
Arsenal Tivat is 0.12 points worse than Dečić in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Buducnost Podgorica
2.50
Petrovac
1.39
Jedinstvo
1.25
Otrant-Olympic
1.19
Sutjeska
1.11
Mornar
1.11
Jezero
0.97
Arsenal Tivat
0.95
Dečić
0.94
Bokelj
0.86
Lovćen
0.00
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.00
Arsenal Tivat is 0.00 goals better than Dečić in terms of goals scored per game (0.95 vs 0.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Buducnost Podgorica
0.81
Dečić
0.86
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.00
Petrovac
1.03
Sutjeska
1.06
Jezero
1.16
Arsenal Tivat
1.24
Bokelj
1.39
Otrant-Olympic
1.47
Mornar
1.47
Jedinstvo
1.61
Lovćen
2.00
Arsenal Tivat is 0.38 goals worse than Dečić in terms of goals conceded per game (1.24 vs 0.86).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Arsenal Tivat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.57
0.40
0.40
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.67
0.00
0.67
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.54
0.50
0.33
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dečić
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.27
0.47
0.33
0.27
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.30
0.30
0.43
0.36
0.15
0.23
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Arsenal Tivat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.73
0.73
0.47
0.60
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.50
0.33
2.00
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.62
0.46
0.83
0.42
0.42
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dečić
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.53
0.47
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.48
0.59
0.36
0.50
0.62
0.69
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
3.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
R( (3)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
Arsenal Tivat's squad is €2m less valuable than Dečić's (€1m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Arsenal Tivat and Dečić have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
Arsenal Tivat and Dečić have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
JED (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
R( (2)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
Arsenal Tivat's defence is €1m less valuable than Dečić's (€0m vs €2m).
Montenegro: First League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Buducnost Podgorica
Petrovac
Sutjeska
Jezero
Mornar
Bokelj
Jedinstvo
Otrant-Olympic
Lovćen
Rudar (Montenegro)