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Arsenal Tivat vs Jezero Result & Analysis

Date: 01/12/2024
Time: 12:00
Final 0-1
Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
Vs
46%
31%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Jezero
Jezero
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Arsenal Tivat win✗ Miss
45.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jezero win✓ Hit
22.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D23L00D12L01L00D21W40W20WH·OTR22/09A·JEZ28/09A·JED02/10H·DEČ06/10A·BUD19/10H·SUT23/10A·PET27/10A·BOK02/11H·MOR10/11A·OTR24/11
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.571.201.201.201.93
vs Stronger (7)0.572.290.251.751.003.00
vs Similar (22)1.271.321.300.901.251.67
vs Weaker (1)4.002.004.002.00--
Clean sheet %23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JezeroJezero

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L00D00D02L10W01L11D11D11D01LA·SUT22/09H·ARS28/09H·BOK02/10A·MOR06/10H·OTR19/10H·PET23/10A·JED27/10H·DEČ02/11A·BUD09/11H·SUT25/11
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.131.200.800.601.47
vs Stronger (6)1.001.501.001.331.001.67
vs Similar (22)0.821.091.180.640.451.55
vs Weaker (2)1.500.502.001.001.000.00
Clean sheet %23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%023%128%219%310%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
64.4%
Under 1.5
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
36.2%
Under 2.5
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.0%
Under 3.5
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
42.7%
No
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
1-0
14.0%
0-0
13.0%
2-0
9.9%
0-1 ✓
8.6%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
5.4%
3-0
4.3%
Arsenal Tivat goals ↓
Jezero goals →
01234
013%8.6%4.2%1.2%0.2%
114%14%5.4%1.5%0.3%
29.9%8.4%3.5%1.0%0.2%
34.3%3.6%1.5%0.4%0.1%
41.4%1.2%0.5%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arsenal Tivat goals (down), columns = Jezero goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Buducnost Podgorica
2.36
Petrovac
1.67
Sutjeska
1.42
Dečić
1.33
Bokelj
1.22
Mornar
1.22
Arsenal Tivat
1.21
Jedinstvo
1.19
Jezero
1.18
Otrant-Olympic
0.97
Lovćen
0.50
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.00
Arsenal Tivat is 0.03 points better than Jezero in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.18).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Buducnost Podgorica
2.50
Petrovac
1.39
Jedinstvo
1.25
Otrant-Olympic
1.19
Sutjeska
1.11
Mornar
1.11
Jezero
0.97
Arsenal Tivat
0.95
Dečić
0.94
Bokelj
0.86
Lovćen
0.00
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.00
Arsenal Tivat is 0.03 goals worse than Jezero in terms of goals scored per game (0.95 vs 0.97).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Buducnost Podgorica
0.81
Dečić
0.86
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.00
Petrovac
1.03
Sutjeska
1.06
Jezero
1.16
Arsenal Tivat
1.24
Bokelj
1.39
Otrant-Olympic
1.47
Mornar
1.47
Jedinstvo
1.61
Lovćen
2.00
Arsenal Tivat is 0.08 goals worse than Jezero in terms of goals conceded per game (1.24 vs 1.16).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D13L00D01L00D00D11D20W10WH·OTR22/09A·JEZ28/09A·JED02/10H·DEČ06/10A·BUD19/10H·SUT23/10A·PET27/10A·BOK02/11H·MOR10/11A·OTR24/11
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.800.530.330.601.27
vs Stronger (7)0.140.860.000.250.331.67
vs Similar (22)0.590.770.500.300.671.17
vs Weaker (1)3.001.003.001.00--
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JezeroJezero

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D00D02L10W00D10W00D01L00DA·SUT22/09H·ARS28/09H·BOK02/10A·MOR06/10H·OTR19/10H·PET23/10A·JED27/10H·DEČ02/11A·BUD09/11H·SUT25/11
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.570.670.200.200.93
vs Stronger (6)0.331.000.670.670.001.33
vs Similar (22)0.450.500.640.090.270.91
vs Weaker (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D10W00D11D01L00D10W20W10WH·OTR22/09A·JEZ28/09A·JED02/10H·DEČ06/10A·BUD19/10H·SUT23/10A·PET27/10A·BOK02/11H·MOR10/11A·OTR24/11
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.770.670.870.600.67
vs Stronger (7)0.431.430.251.500.671.33
vs Similar (22)0.680.550.800.600.580.50
vs Weaker (1)1.001.001.001.00--
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JezeroJezero

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-111D00D00D00D00D01L01L11D10W01LA·SUT22/09H·ARS28/09H·BOK02/10A·MOR06/10H·OTR19/10H·PET23/10A·JED27/10H·DEČ02/11A·BUD09/11H·SUT25/11
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.570.530.600.400.53
vs Stronger (6)0.670.500.330.671.000.33
vs Similar (22)0.360.590.550.550.180.64
vs Weaker (2)1.000.501.001.001.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.583.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
R( (3)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
Arsenal Tivat and Jezero have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Arsenal Tivat and Jezero have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
Arsenal Tivat and Jezero have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
JED (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
R( (2)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
Arsenal Tivat and Jezero have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
AT wins
4
Draws
2
JEZ wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Arsenal Tivat vs Jezero · H/A from AT
DateH/AGameScore
28/09/24AJezero Vs AT0-0
07/04/24AJezero Vs AT4-0
17/02/24HAT Vs Jezero3-1
01/10/23AJezero Vs AT1-1
30/07/23HAT Vs Jezero2-2
15/04/23HAT Vs Jezero1-0
23/02/23AJezero Vs AT1-0
15/10/22HAT Vs Jezero1-1

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/11/24AOtrant-Olympic Vs AT0-2
10/11/24HAT Vs Mornar4-0
02/11/24ABokelj Vs AT1-2
27/10/24APetrovac Vs AT0-0
23/10/24HAT Vs Sutjeska0-1
19/10/24ABuducnost Podgorica Vs AT2-1
06/10/24HAT Vs Dečić0-0
02/10/24AJedinstvo Vs AT3-2
28/09/24AJezero Vs AT0-0
22/09/24HAT Vs Otrant-Olympic0-0

JezeroJezero

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/11/24HJEZ Vs Sutjeska0-1
09/11/24ABuducnost Podgorica Vs JEZ1-1
02/11/24HJEZ Vs Dečić1-1
27/10/24AJedinstvo Vs JEZ1-1
23/10/24HJEZ Vs Petrovac0-1
19/10/24HJEZ Vs Otrant-Olympic1-0
06/10/24AMornar Vs JEZ2-0
02/10/24HJEZ Vs Bokelj0-0
28/09/24HJEZ Vs Arsenal Tivat0-0
22/09/24ASutjeska Vs JEZ2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWWW1.22
HomeDDDLW1.28
AwayLLDWW1.16
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%28%28%
AVG goals2.602.522.68
Over 1.5 %80%80%80%
Over 2.5 %46%40%52%
Over 3.5 %32%32%32%
Scored1.161.281.04
Conceded1.441.241.64
BTTS56%56%56%
Clean Sheet22%20%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Jezero
Jezero
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 1 Wins / 5 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDDL1.20
HomeDWLDL1.40
AwayLLLDD1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%36%24%
AVG goals2.062.042.08
Over 1.5 %64%60%68%
Over 2.5 %32%32%32%
Over 3.5 %18%24%12%
Scored0.961.120.80
Conceded1.100.921.28
BTTS44%36%52%
Clean Sheet30%36%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica3685
72%
2.4
9029+61
3.3
89%
61%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1122.50.8
-
2PetrovacPetrovac3660
47%
1.7
5037+13
2.4
67%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.41.0
-
3SutjeskaSutjeska3651
39%
1.4
4038+2
2.2
75%
33%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.11.1
-
4DečićDečić3648
28%
1.3
3431+3
1.8
58%
22%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.90.9
-
5Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat3846
29%
1.2
3647-11
2.2
66%
37%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1000.91.2
-
6JezeroJezero3845
29%
1.2
3744-7
2.1
63%
32%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.2
-
7MornarMornar3644
33%
1.2
4053-13
2.6
83%
39%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.11.5
-
8BokeljBokelj3644
36%
1.2
3150-19
2.2
64%
39%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.91.4
-
9JedinstvoJedinstvo3643
31%
1.2
4558-13
2.9
81%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.6
-
10Otrant-OlympicOtrant-Olympic3635
25%
1.0
4353-10
2.7
67%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.21.5
-
11LovćenLovćen21
0%
0.5
04-4
2.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
-
12Rudar (Montenegro)Rudar (Montenegro)20
0%
0.0
02-2
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
Montenegro: First League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

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