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Arsenal Tivat vs Mladost DG Result & Analysis

Date: 18/05/2024
Time: 17:00
Final 3-1
Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
Vs
39%
27%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Mladost DG
Mladost DG
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

šŸŽÆ 1. Model Analysis

Arsenal Tivat wināœ“ Hit
39.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawāœ— Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG wināœ— Miss
33.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

āš½ 2. Goal Analysis

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D21W02L42W04L10W12L11D04L22DH·PET13/03A·MLA17/03H·DEČ30/03H·RUD03/04A·JEZ07/04H·SUT14/04H·MOR21/04A·JED27/04H·BUD04/05A·PET12/05
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.671.311.500.861.86
vs Stronger (7)0.572.140.751.500.333.00
vs Similar (20)1.151.551.201.601.101.50
vs Weaker (3)2.001.333.001.000.002.00
Clean sheet %13% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost DG) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Mladost DGMladost DG

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L12L00D21W00D15L02L10W10W32WA·SUT13/03H·ARS17/03A·JED30/03A·BUD03/04H·PET08/04A·MOR13/04A·DEČ21/04H·RUD27/04A·JEZ04/05H·SUT12/05
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.630.931.431.191.81
vs Stronger (3)1.672.001.003.002.001.50
vs Similar (23)1.041.781.001.451.082.08
vs Weaker (4)0.750.500.500.501.000.50
Clean sheet %23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.9%
Under 1.5
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.2%
Under 2.5
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.9%
Under 3.5
68.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.8%
No
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
8.0%
1-0
7.5%
0-0
7.0%
0-1
6.7%
2-0
6.4%
2-2
5.9%
Arsenal Tivat goals ↓
Mladost DG goals →
01234
07.0%6.7%5.3%2.4%0.8%
17.5%13%8.0%3.6%1.2%
26.4%8.7%5.9%2.7%0.9%
33.2%4.4%3.0%1.3%0.5%
41.2%1.6%1.1%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arsenal Tivat goals (down), columns = Mladost DG goals (across).

šŸ’Ŗ 3. Team Strengths Analysis

šŸ† Total PPG

Points / game
Otrant-Olympic
2.00
Dečić
1.94
Mornar
1.78
Buducnost Podgorica
1.69
Sutjeska
1.47
Jezero
1.42
Petrovac
1.33
Arsenal Tivat
1.17
Jedinstvo
1.03
Mladost DG
0.92
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.75
Mladost LjeŔkopolje
0.50
Arsenal Tivat is 0.25 points better than Mladost DG in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 0.92).

āš”ļø Attack

Goals scored / game
Buducnost Podgorica
1.83
Dečić
1.53
Otrant-Olympic
1.50
Sutjeska
1.28
Mornar
1.25
Jedinstvo
1.21
Arsenal Tivat
1.19
Petrovac
1.17
Jezero
1.14
Mladost DG
1.03
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.69
Mladost LjeŔkopolje
0.50
Arsenal Tivat is 0.17 goals better than Mladost DG in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 1.03).

šŸ›”ļø Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.75
Mornar
0.89
Otrant-Olympic
1.00
Sutjeska
1.00
Jezero
1.06
Petrovac
1.11
Buducnost Podgorica
1.19
Jedinstvo
1.50
Mladost LjeŔkopolje
1.50
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.50
Arsenal Tivat
1.61
Mladost DG
1.63
Arsenal Tivat is 0.02 goals better than Mladost DG in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 1.63).

ā±ļø Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

šŸŽ² 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

šŸ”€ 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

šŸ„… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

āš–ļø 7. Handicap

ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D11D00D31W04L00D01L10W01L11DH·PET13/03A·MLA17/03H·DEČ30/03H·RUD03/04A·JEZ07/04H·SUT14/04H·MOR21/04A·JED27/04H·BUD04/05A·PET12/05
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.731.000.940.880.501.14
vs Stronger (7)0.141.140.250.750.001.67
vs Similar (20)0.800.950.901.000.700.90
vs Weaker (3)1.671.002.500.500.002.00
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost DG) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Mladost DGMladost DG

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D11D00D21W00D12L00D00D00D10WA·SUT13/03H·ARS17/03A·JED30/03A·BUD03/04H·PET08/04A·MOR13/04A·DEČ21/04H·RUD27/04A·JEZ04/05H·SUT12/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.700.360.640.620.75
vs Stronger (3)1.331.331.002.001.501.00
vs Similar (23)0.390.740.360.640.420.83
vs Weaker (4)0.500.000.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ„… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W02L11D00D10W11D01L03L11DH·PET13/03A·MLA17/03H·DEČ30/03H·RUD03/04A·JEZ07/04H·SUT14/04H·MOR21/04A·JED27/04H·BUD04/05A·PET12/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.670.380.620.360.71
vs Stronger (7)0.431.000.500.750.331.33
vs Similar (20)0.350.600.300.600.400.60
vs Weaker (3)0.330.330.500.500.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost DG) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Mladost DGMladost DG

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L00D00D00D03L02L10W10W22DA·SUT13/03H·ARS17/03A·JED30/03A·BUD03/04H·PET08/04A·MOR13/04A·DEČ21/04H·RUD27/04A·JEZ04/05H·SUT12/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.930.570.790.561.06
vs Stronger (3)0.330.670.001.000.500.50
vs Similar (23)0.651.040.640.820.671.25
vs Weaker (4)0.250.500.500.500.000.50
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ„… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ”„ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.9%-------āœ“ Hit

šŸ’° 14. Squad value

šŸ’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
R( (3)
€0m
Arsenal Tivat's squad is €1m less valuable than Mladost DG's (€1m vs €3m).

āš”ļø Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Arsenal Tivat and Mladost DG have a similar attack value (both €1m).

šŸ§  Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
Arsenal Tivat and Mladost DG have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

šŸ›”ļø Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
JED (10)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
R( (2)
€0m
Arsenal Tivat and Mladost DG have a similar defence value (both €0m).

šŸ¤ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
AT wins
0
Draws
2
MD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Arsenal Tivat vs Mladost DG · H/A from AT
DateH/AGameScore
17/03/24AMladost DG Vs AT1-2
26/11/23HAT Vs Mladost DG0-2
16/09/23AMladost DG Vs AT2-1

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/05/24APetrovac Vs AT2-2
04/05/24HAT Vs Buducnost Podgorica0-4
27/04/24AJedinstvo Vs AT1-1
21/04/24HAT Vs Mornar1-2
14/04/24HAT Vs Sutjeska1-0
07/04/24AJezero Vs AT4-0
03/04/24HAT Vs Rudar (Montenegro)4-2
30/03/24HAT Vs Dečić0-2
17/03/24AMladost DG Vs AT1-2
13/03/24HAT Vs Petrovac1-1

Mladost DGMladost DG

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/05/24HMD Vs Sutjeska3-2
04/05/24AJezero Vs MD0-1
27/04/24HMD Vs Rudar (Montenegro)1-0
21/04/24ADečić Vs MD2-0
13/04/24AMornar Vs MD5-1
08/04/24HMD Vs Petrovac0-0
03/04/24ABuducnost Podgorica Vs MD1-2
30/03/24AJedinstvo Vs MD0-0
17/03/24HMD Vs Arsenal Tivat1-2
13/03/24ASutjeska Vs MD2-1

šŸ“Š 16. Overall Statistics

Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDLD1.20
HomeLWWLL1.04
AwayLWLDD1.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%21%31%
AVG goals2.502.752.27
Over 1.5 %70%75%65%
Over 2.5 %40%42%38%
Over 3.5 %30%38%23%
Scored1.081.171.00
Conceded1.421.581.27
BTTS52%58%46%
Clean Sheet26%17%35%
Corners12.509.0016.00
Cards3.503.004.00
Mladost DG
Mladost DG
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWW1.28
HomeLLDWW1.36
AwayDWLLW1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%40%32%
AVG goals2.382.402.36
Over 1.5 %64%68%60%
Over 2.5 %48%48%48%
Over 3.5 %20%20%20%
Scored1.001.040.96
Conceded1.381.361.40
BTTS46%48%44%
Clean Sheet34%28%40%
Corners---
Cards---

šŸ† 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ā‚¬mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1DečićDečić3670
56%
1.9
5527+28
2.3
69%
36%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.50.8
-
2MornarMornar3664
47%
1.8
4532+13
2.1
50%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.20.9
-
3Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica3661
47%
1.7
6643+23
3.0
86%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.81.2
-
4SutjeskaSutjeska3653
36%
1.5
4636+10
2.3
67%
39%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.31.0
-
5JezeroJezero3651
39%
1.4
4138+3
2.2
64%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.1
-
6PetrovacPetrovac3648
31%
1.3
4240+2
2.3
69%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.1
-
7Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat3642
25%
1.2
4358-15
2.8
83%
47%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.21.6
-
8JedinstvoJedinstvo3839
24%
1.0
4657-11
2.7
74%
45%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.5
-
9Mladost DGMladost DG3835
24%
0.9
3962-23
2.7
76%
55%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.6
-
10Rudar (Montenegro)Rudar (Montenegro)3627
19%
0.8
2554-29
2.2
58%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.5
-
11Otrant-OlympicOtrant-Olympic24
50%
2.0
32+1
2.5
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.0
-
12Mladost LjeŔkopoljeMladost LjeŔkopolje21
0%
0.5
13-2
2.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.5
-
Montenegro: First League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

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