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Arsenal Tivat vs Mornar Result & Analysis

Date: 21/04/2024
Time: 14:30
Final 1-2
Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
Vs
40%
31%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Mornar
Mornar
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Arsenal Tivat win✗ Miss
40.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mornar win✓ Hit
29.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-611D00D11D06L11D21W02L42W04L10WA·SUT24/02A·MOR28/02H·JED03/03A·BUD10/03H·PET13/03A·MLA17/03H·DEČ30/03H·RUD03/04A·JEZ07/04H·SUT14/04
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.501.471.330.871.67
vs Stronger (7)0.861.861.000.670.752.75
vs Similar (19)1.161.471.301.601.001.33
vs Weaker (4)1.751.003.001.000.501.00
Clean sheet %20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MornarMornar

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W00D10W00D00D10W13L10W02L51WA·MLA24/02H·ARS28/02A·DEČ03/03H·JED09/03A·RUD13/03H·BUD17/03A·JEZ30/03H·PET03/04A·SUT07/04H·MLA13/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.901.270.670.931.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)1.080.921.080.501.081.33
vs Weaker (6)1.170.832.001.330.330.33
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%220%312%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.2%
Under 1.5
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.3%
Under 2.5
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.0%
Under 3.5
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.6%
No
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.4%
1-0
11.3%
0-1
9.1%
2-1
8.3%
2-0
8.0%
1-2 ✓
6.8%
0-2
5.4%
Arsenal Tivat goals ↓
Mornar goals →
01234
011%9.1%5.4%1.9%0.5%
111%14%6.8%2.4%0.6%
28.0%8.3%4.3%1.5%0.4%
33.3%3.5%1.8%0.6%0.2%
41.1%1.1%0.6%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arsenal Tivat goals (down), columns = Mornar goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Otrant-Olympic
2.00
Dečić
1.94
Mornar
1.78
Buducnost Podgorica
1.69
Sutjeska
1.47
Jezero
1.42
Petrovac
1.33
Arsenal Tivat
1.17
Jedinstvo
1.03
Mladost DG
0.92
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.75
Mladost Lješkopolje
0.50
Arsenal Tivat is 0.61 points worse than Mornar in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.78).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Buducnost Podgorica
1.83
Dečić
1.53
Otrant-Olympic
1.50
Sutjeska
1.28
Mornar
1.25
Jedinstvo
1.21
Arsenal Tivat
1.19
Petrovac
1.17
Jezero
1.14
Mladost DG
1.03
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.69
Mladost Lješkopolje
0.50
Arsenal Tivat is 0.06 goals worse than Mornar in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 1.25).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.75
Mornar
0.89
Otrant-Olympic
1.00
Sutjeska
1.00
Jezero
1.06
Petrovac
1.11
Buducnost Podgorica
1.19
Jedinstvo
1.50
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.50
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.50
Arsenal Tivat
1.61
Mladost DG
1.63
Arsenal Tivat is 0.72 goals worse than Mornar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 0.89).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D11D03L11D11D00D31W04L00DA·SUT24/02A·MOR28/02H·JED03/03A·BUD10/03H·PET13/03A·MLA17/03H·DEČ30/03H·RUD03/04A·JEZ07/04H·SUT14/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.931.070.870.531.00
vs Stronger (7)0.431.000.330.670.501.25
vs Similar (19)0.790.951.001.000.560.89
vs Weaker (4)1.500.752.500.500.501.00
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MornarMornar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D00D00D00D01L00D00D21WA·MLA24/02H·ARS28/02A·DEČ03/03H·JED09/03A·RUD13/03H·BUD17/03A·JEZ30/03H·PET03/04A·SUT07/04H·MLA13/04
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.370.530.330.400.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.420.380.420.250.420.50
vs Weaker (6)0.670.331.000.670.330.00
Clean sheet %73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D00D03L00D10W02L11D00D10WA·SUT24/02A·MOR28/02H·JED03/03A·BUD10/03H·PET13/03A·MLA17/03H·DEČ30/03H·RUD03/04A·JEZ07/04H·SUT14/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.570.400.470.330.67
vs Stronger (7)0.430.860.670.000.251.50
vs Similar (19)0.370.530.300.600.440.44
vs Weaker (4)0.250.250.500.500.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MornarMornar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W00D10W00D00D10W12L10W02L30WA·MLA24/02H·ARS28/02A·DEČ03/03H·JED09/03A·RUD13/03H·BUD17/03A·JEZ30/03H·PET03/04A·SUT07/04H·MLA13/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.530.730.330.530.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.670.540.670.250.670.83
vs Weaker (6)0.500.501.000.670.000.33
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.580.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
R( (3)
€0m
Arsenal Tivat's squad is €2m less valuable than Mornar's (€1m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Arsenal Tivat and Mornar have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
Arsenal Tivat and Mornar have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
JED (10)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
R( (2)
€0m
Arsenal Tivat's defence is €2m less valuable than Mornar's (€0m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
4
AT wins
3
Draws
0
MOR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Arsenal Tivat vs Mornar · H/A from AT
DateH/AGameScore
28/02/24AMornar Vs AT0-0
21/10/23HAT Vs Mornar2-2
12/08/23AMornar Vs AT0-1
23/04/23AMornar Vs AT0-1
28/02/23HAT Vs Mornar0-0
22/10/22AMornar Vs AT0-1
16/08/22HAT Vs Mornar2-1

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/04/24HAT Vs Sutjeska1-0
07/04/24AJezero Vs AT4-0
03/04/24HAT Vs Rudar (Montenegro)4-2
30/03/24HAT Vs Dečić0-2
17/03/24AMladost DG Vs AT1-2
13/03/24HAT Vs Petrovac1-1
10/03/24ABuducnost Podgorica Vs AT6-0
03/03/24HAT Vs Jedinstvo1-1
28/02/24AMornar Vs AT0-0
24/02/24ASutjeska Vs AT1-1

MornarMornar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/04/24HMOR Vs Mladost DG5-1
07/04/24ASutjeska Vs MOR2-0
03/04/24HMOR Vs Petrovac1-0
30/03/24AJezero Vs MOR3-1
17/03/24HMOR Vs Buducnost Podgorica1-0
13/03/24ARudar (Montenegro) Vs MOR0-0
09/03/24HMOR Vs Jedinstvo0-0
03/03/24ADečić Vs MOR0-1
28/02/24HMOR Vs Arsenal Tivat0-0
24/02/24AMladost DG Vs MOR1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLW1.26
HomeDDLWW1.20
AwayDDLWL1.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%24%32%
AVG goals2.322.482.16
Over 1.5 %64%68%60%
Over 2.5 %34%32%36%
Over 3.5 %26%32%20%
Scored1.041.160.92
Conceded1.281.321.24
BTTS48%56%40%
Clean Sheet30%24%36%
Corners12.509.0016.00
Cards3.503.004.00
Mornar
Mornar
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLW1.60
HomeDDWWW1.92
AwayWWDLL1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%56%28%
AVG goals1.881.762.00
Over 1.5 %46%36%56%
Over 2.5 %26%24%28%
Over 3.5 %18%12%24%
Scored1.021.160.88
Conceded0.860.601.12
BTTS36%28%44%
Clean Sheet50%52%48%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1DečićDečić3670
56%
1.9
5527+28
2.3
69%
36%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.50.8
-
2MornarMornar3664
47%
1.8
4532+13
2.1
50%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.20.9
-
3Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica3661
47%
1.7
6643+23
3.0
86%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.81.2
-
4SutjeskaSutjeska3653
36%
1.5
4636+10
2.3
67%
39%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.31.0
-
5JezeroJezero3651
39%
1.4
4138+3
2.2
64%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.1
-
6PetrovacPetrovac3648
31%
1.3
4240+2
2.3
69%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.1
-
7Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat3642
25%
1.2
4358-15
2.8
83%
47%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.21.6
-
8JedinstvoJedinstvo3839
24%
1.0
4657-11
2.7
74%
45%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.5
-
9Mladost DGMladost DG3835
24%
0.9
3962-23
2.7
76%
55%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.6
-
10Rudar (Montenegro)Rudar (Montenegro)3627
19%
0.8
2554-29
2.2
58%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.5
-
11Otrant-OlympicOtrant-Olympic24
50%
2.0
32+1
2.5
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.0
-
12Mladost LješkopoljeMladost Lješkopolje21
0%
0.5
13-2
2.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.5
-
Montenegro: First League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

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