Arsenal Tivat’s defensive record at home shows they concede 1.3 goals on average, while Mornar, on the road, has kept just 0.71 goals against similar opponents. The model projects a tight affair, with an expected total of 2.1 goals and a 28% chance that the match will finish with exactly two goals. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.6% probability. The predicted winner is the away side, Mornar, with a 41% chance of victory, a 33% chance of a draw, and a 27% chance of a home win. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.6%), Under 5.5 (98.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.9%), Under 4.5 (94.1%), Home under 2.5 goals (93.7%), and Away +2 handicap (90.3%). Arsenal Tivat are coming off a defeat, while Mornar remain unbeaten in their last five.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Arsenal Tivat win
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
32.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mornar win
43.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Arsenal Tivat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.23
0.86
1.00
0.94
1.44
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
1.29
0.50
0.25
1.67
2.67
vs Similar (23)
0.87
1.22
1.00
1.30
0.77
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mornar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.60
1.73
0.47
1.20
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.41
0.59
1.54
0.46
1.29
0.71
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
3.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
62.9%
Under 1.5
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
34.5%
Under 2.5
65.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
15.8%
Under 3.5
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
42.0%
No
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-1
13.9%
0-0
13.8%
1-0
9.5%
0-2
9.2%
1-2
8.0%
2-1
5.7%
2-0
4.7%
Arsenal Tivat goals ↓
Mornar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
14%
9.2%
3.7%
1.1%
1
9.5%
14%
8.0%
3.2%
1.0%
2
4.7%
5.7%
3.5%
1.4%
0.4%
3
1.3%
1.6%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arsenal Tivat goals (down), columns = Mornar goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dečić
2.60
Mornar
2.00
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Bokelj
1.33
Petrovac
1.20
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Jezero
1.00
Arsenal Tivat
0.80
Sutjeska
0.80
Mladost DG
0.80
Arsenal Tivat is 1.20 points worse than Mornar in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dečić
1.60
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mornar
1.33
Sutjeska
1.20
Mladost DG
1.00
Petrovac
0.80
Buducnost Podgorica
0.40
Jezero
0.40
Bokelj
0.33
Arsenal Tivat
0.20
Arsenal Tivat is 1.13 goals worse than Mornar in terms of goals scored per game (0.20 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.20
Arsenal Tivat
0.40
Petrovac
0.40
Bokelj
0.50
Mornar
0.67
Buducnost Podgorica
0.80
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
1.40
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mladost DG
2.00
Arsenal Tivat is 0.27 goals better than Mornar in terms of goals conceded per game (0.40 vs 0.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Arsenal Tivat or Draw
57.0%
Avg Implied -
25%
32%
43%
covers Arsenal Tivat + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat or Mornar
67.9%
Avg Implied -
25%
32%
43%
covers Arsenal Tivat + Mornar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Mornar
75.1%
Avg Implied -
25%
32%
43%
covers Draw + Mornar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5
Over
57.9%
Under
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5
Over
21.5%
Under
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 3.5
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 0.5
Over
70.4%
Under
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5
Over
34.3%
Under
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 3.5
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Arsenal Tivat, so a minus line means Arsenal Tivat give that many goals of a start and Mornar receive them. At -1, Arsenal Tivat must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Arsenal Tivat win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Arsenal Tivat)
Arsenal Tivat -2
2.2%
Draw -2
6.5%
Mornar +2
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Arsenal Tivat)
Arsenal Tivat -1
8.7%
Draw -1
16.2%
Mornar +1
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Arsenal Tivat)
Arsenal Tivat +1
57.0%
Draw +1
23.4%
Mornar -1
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Arsenal Tivat)
Arsenal Tivat +2
80.4%
Draw +2
12.9%
Mornar -2
6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Arsenal Tivat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.53
0.36
0.50
0.31
0.56
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
0.29
0.00
0.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (23)
0.35
0.61
0.50
0.70
0.23
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mornar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.27
0.73
0.27
0.73
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.78
0.26
0.77
0.23
0.79
0.29
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Arsenal Tivat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.50
0.50
0.62
0.88
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.00
0.50
0.25
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.61
0.50
0.60
0.54
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mornar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.33
1.00
0.20
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.33
0.77
0.23
0.50
0.43
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
2.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
Arsenal Tivat's squad is €2m less valuable than Mornar's (€1m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
Arsenal Tivat and Mornar have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
Arsenal Tivat and Mornar have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
Arsenal Tivat's defence is €2m less valuable than Mornar's (€0m vs €2m).
Montenegro: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dečić
Bokelj
Otrant-Olympic
Petrovac
Buducnost Podgorica
Jezero
Sutjeska
Mladost DG