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Arsenal Tivat vs Petrovac Result & Analysis

Date: 08/03/2025
Time: 13:00
Final 1-2
Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
Vs
26%
29%
44%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Petrovac
Petrovac
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Arsenal Tivat win✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Petrovac win✓ Hit
44.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L00D21W40W20W01L11D00D15L02LH·SUT23/10A·PET27/10A·BOK02/11H·MOR10/11A·OTR24/11H·JEZ01/12H·JED07/12A·DEČ22/02H·BUD26/02A·SUT02/03
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.471.001.331.071.60
vs Stronger (8)0.622.120.402.401.001.67
vs Similar (22)1.181.231.300.801.081.58
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrovac) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PetrovacPetrovac

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D23L10W01L14L42W13L21W30W21WH·ARS27/10A·JED02/11H·BOK10/11A·DEČ23/11H·BUD27/11H·MOR01/12A·BUD07/12H·OTR22/02A·SUT26/02H·JEZ02/03
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.101.801.201.201.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (29)1.551.101.801.201.291.00
vs Weaker (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%018%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.8%
Under 1.5
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.7%
Under 2.5
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.5%
Under 3.5
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.4%
No
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
0-1
10.8%
0-0
9.8%
1-2 ✓
9.0%
0-2
8.6%
1-0
7.6%
2-1
6.6%
2-2
4.7%
Arsenal Tivat goals ↓
Petrovac goals →
01234
09.8%11%8.6%4.1%1.4%
17.6%14%9.0%4.2%1.5%
24.6%6.6%4.7%2.2%0.8%
31.6%2.3%1.6%0.8%0.3%
40.4%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arsenal Tivat goals (down), columns = Petrovac goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Buducnost Podgorica
2.36
Petrovac
1.67
Sutjeska
1.42
Dečić
1.33
Bokelj
1.22
Mornar
1.22
Arsenal Tivat
1.21
Jedinstvo
1.19
Jezero
1.18
Otrant-Olympic
0.97
Lovćen
0.50
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.00
Arsenal Tivat is 0.46 points worse than Petrovac in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.67).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Buducnost Podgorica
2.50
Petrovac
1.39
Jedinstvo
1.25
Otrant-Olympic
1.19
Sutjeska
1.11
Mornar
1.11
Jezero
0.97
Arsenal Tivat
0.95
Dečić
0.94
Bokelj
0.86
Lovćen
0.00
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.00
Arsenal Tivat is 0.44 goals worse than Petrovac in terms of goals scored per game (0.95 vs 1.39).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Buducnost Podgorica
0.81
Dečić
0.86
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.00
Petrovac
1.03
Sutjeska
1.06
Jezero
1.16
Arsenal Tivat
1.24
Bokelj
1.39
Otrant-Olympic
1.47
Mornar
1.47
Jedinstvo
1.61
Lovćen
2.00
Arsenal Tivat is 0.21 goals worse than Petrovac in terms of goals conceded per game (1.24 vs 1.03).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D11D20W10W01L01L00D02L00DH·SUT23/10A·PET27/10A·BOK02/11H·MOR10/11A·OTR24/11H·JEZ01/12H·JED07/12A·DEČ22/02H·BUD26/02A·SUT02/03
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.730.270.470.531.00
vs Stronger (8)0.120.620.000.600.330.67
vs Similar (22)0.500.770.400.400.581.08
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrovac) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PetrovacPetrovac

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D10W01L11D10W11D01L20W21WH·ARS27/10A·JED02/11H·BOK10/11A·DEČ23/11H·BUD27/11H·MOR01/12A·BUD07/12H·OTR22/02A·SUT26/02H·JEZ02/03
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.430.670.330.730.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (29)0.720.410.670.330.790.50
vs Weaker (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrovac over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrovac over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrovac over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D10W20W10W00D10W00D13L02LH·SUT23/10A·PET27/10A·BOK02/11H·MOR10/11A·OTR24/11H·JEZ01/12H·JED07/12A·DEČ22/02H·BUD26/02A·SUT02/03
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.730.730.870.530.60
vs Stronger (8)0.501.500.401.800.671.00
vs Similar (22)0.680.450.900.400.500.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrovac) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PetrovacPetrovac

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D12L00D00D03L32W02L20W10W00DH·ARS27/10A·JED02/11H·BOK10/11A·DEČ23/11H·BUD27/11H·MOR01/12A·BUD07/12H·OTR22/02A·SUT26/02H·JEZ02/03
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.671.130.870.470.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (29)0.830.691.130.870.500.50
vs Weaker (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrovac over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrovac over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrovac over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.576.5%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.571.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
R( (3)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
Arsenal Tivat's squad is €2m less valuable than Petrovac's (€1m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Arsenal Tivat and Petrovac have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
Arsenal Tivat and Petrovac have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
JED (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
R( (2)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
Arsenal Tivat's defence is €1m less valuable than Petrovac's (€0m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
AT wins
7
Draws
0
PET wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Arsenal Tivat vs Petrovac · H/A from AT
DateH/AGameScore
27/10/24APetrovac Vs AT0-0
25/08/24HAT Vs Petrovac1-1
12/05/24APetrovac Vs AT2-2
13/03/24HAT Vs Petrovac1-1
11/11/23APetrovac Vs AT1-1
03/09/23HAT Vs Petrovac2-2
05/04/23APetrovac Vs AT0-3
07/12/22HAT Vs Petrovac1-1

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/03/25ASutjeska Vs AT2-0
26/02/25HAT Vs Buducnost Podgorica1-5
22/02/25ADečić Vs AT0-0
07/12/24HAT Vs Jedinstvo1-1
01/12/24HAT Vs Jezero0-1
24/11/24AOtrant-Olympic Vs AT0-2
10/11/24HAT Vs Mornar4-0
02/11/24ABokelj Vs AT1-2
27/10/24APetrovac Vs AT0-0
23/10/24HAT Vs Sutjeska0-1

PetrovacPetrovac

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/03/25HPET Vs Jezero2-1
26/02/25ASutjeska Vs PET0-3
22/02/25HPET Vs Otrant-Olympic2-1
07/12/24ABuducnost Podgorica Vs PET3-1
01/12/24HPET Vs Mornar4-2
27/11/24HPET Vs Buducnost Podgorica1-4
23/11/24ADečić Vs PET1-0
10/11/24HPET Vs Bokelj1-0
02/11/24AJedinstvo Vs PET3-2
27/10/24HPET Vs Arsenal Tivat0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDLL1.16
HomeLWLDL1.19
AwayDWWDL1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%27%25%
AVG goals2.542.462.62
Over 1.5 %78%77%79%
Over 2.5 %42%35%50%
Over 3.5 %30%27%33%
Scored1.081.151.00
Conceded1.461.311.62
BTTS54%54%54%
Clean Sheet22%19%25%
Corners---
Cards---
Petrovac
Petrovac
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWW1.54
HomeWLWWW1.83
AwayWLLLW1.27
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%50%35%
AVG goals2.442.792.12
Over 1.5 %66%71%62%
Over 2.5 %42%58%27%
Over 3.5 %26%38%15%
Scored1.321.581.08
Conceded1.121.211.04
BTTS54%71%38%
Clean Sheet34%25%42%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica3685
72%
2.4
9029+61
3.3
89%
61%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1122.50.8
-
2PetrovacPetrovac3660
47%
1.7
5037+13
2.4
67%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.41.0
-
3SutjeskaSutjeska3651
39%
1.4
4038+2
2.2
75%
33%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.11.1
-
4DečićDečić3648
28%
1.3
3431+3
1.8
58%
22%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.90.9
-
5Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat3846
29%
1.2
3647-11
2.2
66%
37%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1000.91.2
-
6JezeroJezero3845
29%
1.2
3744-7
2.1
63%
32%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.2
-
7MornarMornar3644
33%
1.2
4053-13
2.6
83%
39%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.11.5
-
8BokeljBokelj3644
36%
1.2
3150-19
2.2
64%
39%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.91.4
-
9JedinstvoJedinstvo3643
31%
1.2
4558-13
2.9
81%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.6
-
10Otrant-OlympicOtrant-Olympic3635
25%
1.0
4353-10
2.7
67%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.21.5
-
11LovćenLovćen21
0%
0.5
04-4
2.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
-
12Rudar (Montenegro)Rudar (Montenegro)20
0%
0.0
02-2
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
Montenegro: First League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

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