AS Jeunesse Esch are the clear favourite to win at home, with the model giving them a 64% chance of triumph, 21% for a draw and 15% for an Etzella Ettelbruck victory. The prediction favours a 2-0 scoreline, the most likely result, at 10% probability, while the average goal total is 3.2, matching the model’s 3-goal expectation. The home side’s recent form shows a win after a string of losses, and they have scored 5-2 against US Rumelange, suggesting they can find the net. Etzella, playing away against a stronger opponent, averages 1.36 goals scored and 2.86 conceded, indicating a defensive weakness at home. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 98.4%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.2%, Over 2.5 cards at 96.2%, Under 6.5 at 95.6%, Home +2 handicap at 94.6%, Over 19.5 fouls at 94.3%, Away under 2.5 goals at 92.1% and Over 3.5 cards at 90.0%. The expected total of 3.2 goals reflects the high likelihood of a lively match, but the model’s confidence in a 2-0 win for Jeunesse Esch underscores their home advantage and Etzella’s recent struggles.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
AS Jeunesse Esch win
64.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Etzella Ettelbruck win
14.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
AS Jeunesse Esch
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.37
1.00
1.36
1.38
1.38
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
1.40
0.60
1.20
0.80
1.60
vs Similar (19)
1.26
1.32
1.22
1.44
1.30
1.20
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
2.00
-
-
5.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Etzella Ettelbruck) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Etzella Ettelbruck
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
2.47
0.87
2.13
1.47
2.80
vs Stronger (29)
1.10
2.48
0.87
2.13
1.36
2.86
vs Similar (1)
3.00
2.00
-
-
3.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (AS Jeunesse Esch) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.6%
Under 1.5
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61.7%
Under 2.5
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
39.4%
Under 3.5
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.6%
No
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.0%
1-1
9.9%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
8.2%
3-0
7.3%
3-1
7.2%
0-0
5.0%
2-2
4.9%
AS Jeunesse Esch goals ↓
Etzella Ettelbruck goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
3.2%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
1
8.2%
9.9%
4.4%
1.5%
0.4%
2
10%
9.9%
4.9%
1.6%
0.4%
3
7.3%
7.2%
3.6%
1.2%
0.3%
4
4.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AS Jeunesse Esch goals (down), columns = Etzella Ettelbruck goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
UNA Strassen
3.00
US Mondorf-les-bains
3.00
FC Differdange 03
2.40
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.00
Résidence Walferdange
1.80
Atert Bissen
1.80
Progres Niederkorn
1.80
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.80
US Rumelange
1.20
F91 Dudelange
1.20
US Hostert
1.20
Victoria Rosport
0.80
Wiltz
0.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
0.60
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.20
Swift Hesperange
0.00
AS Jeunesse Esch is 0.40 points better than Etzella Ettelbruck in terms of average points per game (0.60 vs 0.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.60
UN Kaerjeng 97
2.60
US Mondorf-les-bains
2.40
Résidence Walferdange
2.20
US Hostert
2.20
FC Differdange 03
2.20
Victoria Rosport
2.00
Wiltz
2.00
UNA Strassen
2.00
US Rumelange
1.60
Progres Niederkorn
1.60
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.40
Atert Bissen
1.40
F91 Dudelange
1.00
Swift Hesperange
0.40
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.40
AS Jeunesse Esch is 1.00 goals better than Etzella Ettelbruck in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 0.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
UNA Strassen
0.20
Progres Niederkorn
0.80
FC Differdange 03
0.80
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.20
Résidence Walferdange
1.20
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.20
Atert Bissen
1.40
F91 Dudelange
1.60
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
2.00
US Hostert
2.00
Wiltz
2.20
Victoria Rosport
2.40
US Rumelange
2.40
Etzella Ettelbruck
2.60
Swift Hesperange
4.20
AS Jeunesse Esch is 0.60 goals better than Etzella Ettelbruck in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 2.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AS Jeunesse Esch
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Etzella Ettelbruck
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
AS Jeunesse Esch
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
10.0
7.5
0.6
1.0
0.3
29.0
29.0
29.0
vs Stronger (13)
6.0
-
6.0
0.3
0.0
0.7
32.0
-
32.0
vs Similar (36)
9.7
10.0
9.0
0.8
1.5
0.2
28.0
29.0
26.0
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
25%
50%
0%
10%
14%
7%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
75%
50%
100%
90%
86%
93%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Etzella Ettelbruck) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Etzella Ettelbruck
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (42)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (41)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (AS Jeunesse Esch) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
US Mondorf-les-bains
11.0
Victoria Rosport
9.8
UN Kaerjeng 97
9.2
Progres Niederkorn
9.1
F91 Dudelange
8.9
AS Jeunesse Esch
8.8
FC Differdange 03
8.7
Atert Bissen
8.6
US Hostert
8.4
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
8.0
Swift Hesperange
7.9
UNA Strassen
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Differdange 03
7.7
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
7.0
Atert Bissen
6.6
UN Kaerjeng 97
6.6
US Mondorf-les-bains
6.2
Victoria Rosport
6.2
AS Jeunesse Esch
6.2
US Hostert
6.2
Swift Hesperange
6.2
Progres Niederkorn
6.1
F91 Dudelange
6.0
UNA Strassen
5.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Differdange 03
35.0
Swift Hesperange
30.4
AS Jeunesse Esch
29.0
US Hostert
29.0
UNA Strassen
28.2
UN Kaerjeng 97
27.0
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
26.5
Atert Bissen
26.0
US Mondorf-les-bains
25.3
Victoria Rosport
25.0
Progres Niederkorn
23.6
F91 Dudelange
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
33.9%
Under 9.5
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
90.0%
Under 3.5
10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
87.8%
Under 21.5
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
AS Jeunesse Esch or Draw
85.1%
Avg Implied -
64%
21%
15%
covers AS Jeunesse Esch + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
AS Jeunesse Esch or Etzella Ettelbruck
78.9%
Avg Implied -
64%
21%
15%
covers AS Jeunesse Esch + Etzella Ettelbruck
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Etzella Ettelbruck
36.0%
Avg Implied -
64%
21%
15%
covers Draw + Etzella Ettelbruck
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 0.5
Over
88.9%
Under
11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 1.5
Over
64.5%
Under
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 2.5
Over
37.7%
Under
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 3.5
Over
18.1%
Under
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etzella Ettelbruck over/under 0.5
Over
62.7%
Under
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etzella Ettelbruck over/under 1.5
Over
25.9%
Under
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etzella Ettelbruck over/under 2.5
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etzella Ettelbruck over/under 3.5
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to AS Jeunesse Esch, so a minus line means AS Jeunesse Esch give that many goals of a start and Etzella Ettelbruck receive them. At -1, AS Jeunesse Esch must win by two or more to land; a one-goal AS Jeunesse Esch win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (AS Jeunesse Esch)
AS Jeunesse Esch -2
22.2%
Draw -2
19.5%
Etzella Ettelbruck +2
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (AS Jeunesse Esch)
AS Jeunesse Esch -1
41.7%
Draw -1
22.3%
Etzella Ettelbruck +1
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (AS Jeunesse Esch)
AS Jeunesse Esch +1
85.1%
Draw +1
9.5%
Etzella Ettelbruck -1
5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (AS Jeunesse Esch)
AS Jeunesse Esch +2
94.7%
Draw +2
3.9%
Etzella Ettelbruck -2
1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AS Jeunesse Esch
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.53
0.36
0.64
0.75
0.44
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.50
0.20
0.60
0.60
0.40
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.53
0.44
0.67
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Etzella Ettelbruck) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Etzella Ettelbruck
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
1.07
0.27
1.00
0.33
1.13
vs Stronger (29)
0.28
1.07
0.27
1.00
0.29
1.14
vs Similar (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (AS Jeunesse Esch) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etzella Ettelbruck over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etzella Ettelbruck over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etzella Ettelbruck over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AS Jeunesse Esch
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.83
0.64
0.71
0.62
0.94
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
0.90
0.40
0.60
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.79
0.78
0.78
0.70
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Etzella Ettelbruck) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Etzella Ettelbruck
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.40
0.60
1.13
1.13
1.67
vs Stronger (29)
0.83
1.41
0.60
1.13
1.07
1.71
vs Similar (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (AS Jeunesse Esch) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etzella Ettelbruck over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etzella Ettelbruck over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etzella Ettelbruck over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 4.5 cards
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (19)
€3m
AB (19)
€3m
UK9 (18)
€2m
UM (22)
€2m
FD0 (16)
€2m
PN (19)
€2m
VR (15)
€2m
RFU (15)
€1m
AJE (17)
€1m
FD (16)
€1m
UH (16)
€1m
SH (12)
€1m
RW (3)
€0m
EE (6)
€0m
WIL (2)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
AS Jeunesse Esch's squad is €1m more valuable than Etzella Ettelbruck's (€1m vs €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UK9 (5)
€1m
FD0 (6)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
PN (8)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
AB (4)
€1m
UM (5)
€0m
UH (6)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
FD (6)
€0m
RW (1)
€0m
SH (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (3)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
AS Jeunesse Esch and Etzella Ettelbruck have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (5)
€1m
UM (6)
€1m
AB (5)
€1m
UK9 (5)
€0m
FD (4)
€0m
RFU (3)
€0m
VR (4)
€0m
UH (3)
€0m
FD0 (3)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
SH (3)
€0m
EE (2)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
RW (0)
€0m
PN (0)
€0m
WIL (0)
€0m
AS Jeunesse Esch and Etzella Ettelbruck have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AB (10)
€1m
US (9)
€1m
PN (11)
€1m
UM (11)
€1m
FD0 (7)
€1m
AJE (9)
€1m
UK9 (8)
€1m
VR (6)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
UH (7)
€0m
SH (7)
€0m
RW (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (1)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
AS Jeunesse Esch and Etzella Ettelbruck have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Luxembourg: National Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Luxembourg: National Division stats & trends →