AS Jeunesse Esch’s recent win over US Rumelange gives the home side a bright start, while Racing FC Union Luxembourg’s draw against Victoria Rosport keeps them on track. The model favours a home win, with a 47% chance, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 29% chance of an away win. The expected total of 3.4 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1 with a 10.5% probability. AS Jeunesse Esch typically scores 1.91 and concedes 1.45 against similar opponents at home, whereas Racing FC Union Luxembourg averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.21 conceded away. The single selection the model offers is Over 1.5, with an 86% probability. These figures set the stage for a match that should see plenty of goals and a clear edge for the home side.
Results analysis
The win extends AS Jeunesse Esch’s recent form, their first of five matches, while Racing FC Union Luxembourg, coming off a draw, failed to find the net. The final score was 3-0, a home win that matched the model’s pick. The model had assigned a 47% probability to a home victory, and it was correct. The suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals carried an 86% chance and hit, as the match saw three goals. The most likely scoreline was 1-1 with a 10.5% chance, but the actual 3-0 result proved the model’s confidence in a decisive home performance.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
AS Jeunesse Esch win✓ Hit
46.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg win✗ Miss
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
AS Jeunesse Esch
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.50
1.80
1.60
1.13
1.40
vs Stronger (6)
1.50
1.83
1.50
2.00
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (23)
1.52
1.35
1.91
1.45
1.17
1.25
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Racing FC Union Luxembourg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.57
1.00
1.53
1.40
1.60
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
3.67
0.50
2.00
0.00
7.00
vs Similar (26)
1.27
1.31
1.00
1.42
1.50
1.21
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (AS Jeunesse Esch) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.0%
Under 1.5
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.5%
Under 2.5
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.6%
Under 3.5
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.5%
No
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.5%
2-1
9.1%
1-2
7.1%
2-2
6.7%
2-0
6.2%
3-1
5.8%
1-0
5.6%
0-0
4.4%
AS Jeunesse Esch goals ↓
Racing FC Union Luxembourg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.4%
4.1%
3.7%
1.8%
0.7%
1
5.6%
11%
7.1%
3.5%
1.3%
2
6.2%
9.1%
6.7%
3.3%
1.2%
3
3.9%
5.8%
4.3%
2.1%
0.8%
4
1.9%
2.8%
2.0%
1.0%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AS Jeunesse Esch goals (down), columns = Racing FC Union Luxembourg goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Differdange 03
2.20
F91 Dudelange
2.03
Swift Hesperange
2.03
Progres Niederkorn
1.83
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.50
UNA Strassen
1.47
Victoria Rosport
1.47
Union Titus Petange
1.30
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.27
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.27
Wiltz
1.10
Mondercange
1.07
US Rumelange
1.00
US Hostert
1.00
Fola Esch
0.94
UN Kaerjeng 97
0.94
Marisca Mersch
0.87
Schifflange
0.83
AS Jeunesse Esch is 0.23 points better than Racing FC Union Luxembourg in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.27).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Differdange 03
2.33
Swift Hesperange
2.20
US Rumelange
2.00
F91 Dudelange
1.97
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.83
Progres Niederkorn
1.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.70
Union Titus Petange
1.60
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.53
Victoria Rosport
1.50
Wiltz
1.43
UNA Strassen
1.33
Marisca Mersch
1.33
Schifflange
1.20
Fola Esch
1.13
Mondercange
1.10
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.03
US Hostert
1.00
AS Jeunesse Esch is 0.17 goals better than Racing FC Union Luxembourg in terms of goals scored per game (1.70 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Differdange 03
0.77
US Hostert
1.00
Swift Hesperange
1.17
Progres Niederkorn
1.17
F91 Dudelange
1.20
UNA Strassen
1.27
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.37
Victoria Rosport
1.47
Union Titus Petange
1.57
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.61
Wiltz
1.73
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.77
Mondercange
1.90
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.93
Schifflange
1.97
US Rumelange
2.00
Fola Esch
2.03
Marisca Mersch
2.07
AS Jeunesse Esch is 0.57 goals better than Racing FC Union Luxembourg in terms of goals conceded per game (1.37 vs 1.93).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AS Jeunesse Esch
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
AS Jeunesse Esch
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (47)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (9)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Racing FC Union Luxembourg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (49)
8.5
10.0
7.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
-
-
-
vs Stronger (6)
8.5
10.0
7.0
1.2
1.0
1.3
-
-
-
vs Similar (41)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
100%
0%
2%
0%
4%
-
-
-
% under line
50%
0%
100%
98%
100%
96%
-
-
-
This opponent (AS Jeunesse Esch) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Progres Niederkorn
10.8
FC Differdange 03
10.0
F91 Dudelange
9.3
Swift Hesperange
8.6
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
8.5
Fola Esch
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Differdange 03
8.8
Progres Niederkorn
7.5
Fola Esch
7.0
Swift Hesperange
5.8
F91 Dudelange
5.1
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Differdange 03
48.0
Swift Hesperange
31.5
Progres Niederkorn
29.0
F91 Dudelange
17.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AS Jeunesse Esch
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.63
1.20
0.60
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
0.83
1.25
1.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.74
0.61
1.18
0.45
0.33
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Racing FC Union Luxembourg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.73
0.47
0.53
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (26)
0.58
0.58
0.50
0.42
0.64
0.71
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (AS Jeunesse Esch) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AS Jeunesse Esch
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.87
0.60
1.00
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.74
0.73
1.00
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Racing FC Union Luxembourg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.83
0.53
1.00
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.67
0.50
1.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.73
0.50
1.00
0.86
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (AS Jeunesse Esch) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (19)
€3m
UK9 (18)
€2m
UM (22)
€2m
FD0 (16)
€2m
PN (19)
€2m
VR (15)
€2m
RFU (15)
€1m
AJE (17)
€1m
FD (16)
€1m
UH (16)
€1m
SH (12)
€1m
WIL (2)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
AS Jeunesse Esch and Racing FC Union Luxembourg have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UK9 (5)
€1m
FD0 (6)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
PN (8)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
UM (5)
€0m
UH (6)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
FD (6)
€0m
SH (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
AS Jeunesse Esch and Racing FC Union Luxembourg have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (5)
€1m
UM (6)
€1m
UK9 (5)
€0m
FD (4)
€0m
RFU (3)
€0m
VR (4)
€0m
UH (3)
€0m
FD0 (3)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
SH (3)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
PN (0)
€0m
WIL (0)
€0m
AS Jeunesse Esch and Racing FC Union Luxembourg have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (9)
€1m
PN (11)
€1m
UM (11)
€1m
FD0 (7)
€1m
AJE (9)
€1m
UK9 (8)
€1m
VR (6)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
UH (7)
€0m
SH (7)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
AS Jeunesse Esch and Racing FC Union Luxembourg have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Luxembourg: National Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Luxembourg: National Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Differdange 03
Swift Hesperange
F91 Dudelange
Progres Niederkorn
UNA Strassen
Victoria Rosport
Union Titus Petange
US Mondorf-les-bains
Wiltz
Mondercange
UN Kaerjeng 97
Fola Esch
Marisca Mersch
Schifflange
US Rumelange
US Hostert