The away team, US Mondorf-les-bains, looks poised for a win, having been on a 2-game winning run. However, their recent form note suggests they've experienced some inconsistency, with a win followed by a draw and then a loss.
AS Jeunesse Esch, the home side, are struggling, having lost two of their last five matches, including a 0-2 defeat to Atert Bissen. They have a 26% chance of winning, a 29% chance of drawing, and a 45% chance of losing. The expected total goals is 2.5, with 2 goals being the most likely total. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 13.7%.
Against stronger opponents at home, AS Jeunesse Esch have averaged 0.75 goals scored and 1.12 goals conceded. Meanwhile, US Mondorf-les-bains have averaged 1.38 goals scored and 1.25 goals conceded when facing weaker opponents away.
The model's selection is an away win. The model also suggests Over 3.5 cards (91.8%), Over 21.5 fouls (87.2%), Under 3.5 (75.2%), and Over 1.5 (73.0%). The away team has a 45% chance of winning, a 27% chance of drawing, and a 26% chance of losing.
The model’s prediction proved spot on, with US Mondorf-les-bains claiming a 1-3 away win, extending their four-game winning streak. The pre-match favourite was the away side, given a 45 % probability, and the model’s call was correct. The final score matched the expected 1-3 outcome, confirming the favoured result. The model’s selections performed well: Under 7.5 (99.6 %) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.8 %) hit, Under 6.5 (98.5 %) hit, Home under 3.5 goals (97.7 %) hit, Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.6 %) hit, and Under 5.5 (95.6 %) hit. All predictions were settled accurately, underscoring the model’s reliability.
AS Jeunesse Esch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 1.27 | 1.00 | 1.23 | 1.06 | 1.29 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 0.70 | 1.40 | 0.60 | 1.20 | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-6pp vs league) | |||||
US Mondorf-les-bains| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.93 | 0.93 | 2.14 | 0.86 | 1.75 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.68 | 0.96 | 2.00 | 0.92 | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 3.20 | 0.80 | 4.00 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+10pp vs league) | |||||
| US Mondorf-les-bains goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.2% | 11% | 8.6% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
| 1 | 7.2% | 14% | 9.1% | 4.5% | 1.6% |
| 2 | 4.5% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
AS Jeunesse Esch
US Mondorf-les-bains
AS Jeunesse Esch| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.8 | 10.0 | 7.5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 29.0 | 29.0 | 29.0 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 6.0 | - | 6.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 32.0 | - | 32.0 |
| vs Similar (36) | 9.7 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 28.0 | 29.0 | 26.0 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 25% | 50% | 0% | 10% | 12% | 8% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| % under line | 75% | 50% | 100% | 90% | 88% | 92% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
US Mondorf-les-bains| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.0 | 10.0 | 11.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 25.3 | 28.0 | 24.0 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (42) | 11.5 | - | 11.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 24.0 | - | 24.0 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 10.0 | 10.0 | - | 0.9 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 28.0 | 28.0 | - |
| % over line | 100% | 100% | 100% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| % under line | 0% | 0% | 0% | 92% | 92% | 92% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
AS Jeunesse Esch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.47 | 0.38 | 0.54 | 0.59 | 0.41 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 0.40 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.55 | 0.45 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.58 | 0.42 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+30pp vs league) | |||||
US Mondorf-les-bains| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 0.47 | 1.07 | 0.36 | 0.81 | 0.56 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.84 | 0.48 | 1.00 | 0.38 | 0.67 | 0.58 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.40 | 0.40 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 1.25 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+30pp vs league) | |||||
AS Jeunesse Esch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.80 | 0.62 | 0.69 | 0.47 | 0.88 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 0.30 | 0.90 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.65 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.58 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+17pp vs league) | |||||
US Mondorf-les-bains| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 0.47 | 1.07 | 0.50 | 0.94 | 0.44 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.84 | 0.48 | 1.00 | 0.54 | 0.67 | 0.42 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.80 | 0.40 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 1.75 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+40pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 99.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 98.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 6.5 | 98.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 97.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 97.6% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +6.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 97.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 95.6% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +2.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 94.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 93.9% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +3.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 93.8% | 1.06 | 1.06 | - | - | - | - | +7.5% | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 93.1% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +2.3% | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 92.1% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +1.3% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 91.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 90.9% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +0.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Away +2 handicap | 89.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 | 88.8% | 1.07 | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | +3.3% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 87.7% | 1.07 | 1.08 | 1.06 | 1.06 | - | - | +0.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 87.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 2H goals | 86.5% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | -1.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 4.5 cards | 82.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 82.3% | 1.14 | 1.14 | - | - | - | - | +1.8% | ✗ Miss |
| Under 11.5 corners | 82.2% | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | - | +9.9% | - |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 81.7% | 1.27 | 1.27 | - | - | - | - | +8.9% | ✗ Miss |
| Under 2.5 2H goals | 81.3% | 1.16 | 1.16 | - | - | - | - | +2.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 1.5 2H goals | 78.9% | 1.24 | 1.24 | - | - | - | - | +5.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 78.3% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | +2.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Home +2 handicap | 77.0% | 1.31 | 1.34 | 1.28 | - | - | - | +12.3% | ✗ Miss |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 76.9% | 1.14 | 1.15 | 1.13 | - | - | - | -2.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 76.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 3.5 | 75.2% | 1.25 | 1.28 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.22 | +2.8% | ✗ Miss |
| Draw or Away | 74.0% | 1.14 | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.13 | -6.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Away +1 handicap | 74.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 73.0% | 1.27 | 1.30 | 1.29 | 1.27 | 1.25 | 1.25 | +1.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 10.5 corners | 73.0% | 1.48 | 1.48 | - | - | - | - | +11.0% | - |
| Home under 1.5 goals | 71.4% | 1.20 | 1.23 | 1.20 | 1.18 | - | - | -4.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Home or Away | 71.3% | 1.24 | 1.30 | 1.27 | 1.25 | 1.23 | 1.22 | -2.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 19/10/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 25/05/25 | A | 4-1 | |
| 04/08/24 | H | 1-1 | |
| 17/03/24 | A | 0-2 | |
| 24/09/23 | H | 2-2 | |
| 05/05/23 | H | 0-2 | |
| 04/12/22 | A | 3-1 |
AS Jeunesse Esch| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 09/08/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 23/05/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 1-1 |
US Mondorf-les-bains| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 09/08/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 02/08/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 23/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 5 | 15 | 100% | 3.0 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.0 | 0.2 | - |
| 2 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 5 | 15 | 100% | 3.0 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.6 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | - |
| 3 | FC Differdange 03 | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 3.0 | 100% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 3.8 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.6 | 1.2 | - |
| 5 | Résidence Walferdange | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 3.4 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 6 | UN Kaerjeng 97 | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 7 | Progres Niederkorn | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 2.4 | 60% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | - |
| 8 | Atert Bissen | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.8 | 100% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 9 | US Hostert | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 4.2 | 100% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 10 | F91 Dudelange | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2.6 | 80% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | - |
| 11 | US Rumelange | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 4.0 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.4 | - |
| 12 | Wiltz | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 4.2 | 100% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 13 | Victoria Rosport | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 2.4 | - |
| 14 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 2.0 | - |
| 15 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3.0 | 60% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.4 | 2.6 | - |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 2 | 21 | -19 | 4.6 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.4 | 4.2 | - |