ASA Targu Mures are tipped to win as the model picks a home victory, with a 47% chance of triumph, 27% for a draw and 26% for Chindia Targoviste to come out on top. The average goal count sits at 2.7, but the most probable total is two goals, with a 26% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.1% chance. ASA have scored an average of 1.62 goals and conceded 1.0 at home against similarly ranked opposition, while Chindia, playing away, averages 1.42 scored and 1.42 conceded against comparable teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Under 6.5 (97.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.2%), Under 5.5 (94.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (89.4%), Home +2 handicap (89.3%) and Under 4.5 (86.1%). ASA are coming off a 0-3 loss to FC Politehnica Timisoara, while Chindia arrive after a 3-1 win over Metalul Buzău, setting the stage for a tightly contested encounter.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
ASA Targu Mures win
46.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Chindia Targoviste win
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
ASA Targu Mures
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.20
1.93
1.00
1.19
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.31
1.23
1.62
1.00
1.00
1.46
vs Weaker (4)
3.00
1.00
6.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Chindia Targoviste) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chindia Targoviste
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.43
1.50
1.50
1.25
1.38
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
1.33
1.33
1.33
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (21)
1.48
1.52
1.56
1.67
1.42
1.42
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (ASA Targu Mures) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.6%
Under 1.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.0%
Under 2.5
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.9%
Under 3.5
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.0%
No
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
2-1
9.4%
1-0
9.3%
2-0
8.3%
0-0
7.8%
1-2
6.7%
0-1
6.3%
2-2
5.3%
ASA Targu Mures goals ↓
Chindia Targoviste goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.8%
6.3%
4.2%
1.6%
0.5%
1
9.3%
13%
6.7%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.3%
9.4%
5.3%
2.0%
0.6%
3
4.4%
5.0%
2.8%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.7%
2.0%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ASA Targu Mures goals (down), columns = Chindia Targoviste goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Politehnica Timisoara
2.60
Slatina
2.60
Concordia
2.40
CSM Reşiţa
2.40
Popești-Leordeni
1.80
Gloria Bistriţa
1.80
Chindia Targoviste
1.80
FC Bacau
1.60
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.60
Metalul Buzău
1.40
Metaloglobus
1.40
Cetatea Suceava
1.40
CS Afumati
1.40
Ştefăneşti
1.20
Bihor Oradea
1.20
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.00
ASA Targu Mures
0.80
CS Dinamo București
0.60
Dumbrăviţa
0.60
CSM Satu Mare
0.40
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
0.20
Unirea Slobozia
0.20
ASA Targu Mures is 1.00 points worse than Chindia Targoviste in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Concordia
2.20
FC Politehnica Timisoara
2.20
Popești-Leordeni
2.00
Chindia Targoviste
2.00
FC Bacau
2.00
Slatina
2.00
CSM Reşiţa
1.80
Gloria Bistriţa
1.40
Metaloglobus
1.40
Cetatea Suceava
1.40
Bihor Oradea
1.20
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.20
CS Afumati
1.20
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.00
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.00
Metalul Buzău
1.00
CS Dinamo București
0.80
Dumbrăviţa
0.80
Ştefăneşti
0.80
ASA Targu Mures
0.60
Unirea Slobozia
0.60
CSM Satu Mare
0.20
ASA Targu Mures is 1.40 goals worse than Chindia Targoviste in terms of goals scored per game (0.60 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Politehnica Timisoara
0.40
Slatina
0.40
Gloria Bistriţa
0.80
Bihor Oradea
0.80
Chindia Targoviste
1.00
FC Bacau
1.00
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.00
Popești-Leordeni
1.20
Dumbrăviţa
1.20
CSM Reşiţa
1.20
Metalul Buzău
1.20
CSM Satu Mare
1.20
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.40
Cetatea Suceava
1.40
Concordia
1.60
ASA Targu Mures
1.60
Metaloglobus
1.60
Unirea Slobozia
1.80
CS Afumati
1.80
CS Dinamo București
2.00
Ştefăneşti
2.00
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
2.20
ASA Targu Mures is 0.60 goals worse than Chindia Targoviste in terms of goals conceded per game (1.60 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ASA Targu Mures or Draw
73.9%
Avg Implied -
47%
27%
26%
covers ASA Targu Mures + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures or Chindia Targoviste
72.6%
Avg Implied -
47%
27%
26%
covers ASA Targu Mures + Chindia Targoviste
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Chindia Targoviste
53.4%
Avg Implied -
47%
27%
26%
covers Draw + Chindia Targoviste
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 0.5
Over
79.5%
Under
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 1.5
Over
46.9%
Under
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 2.5
Over
21.2%
Under
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 3.5
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chindia Targoviste over/under 0.5
Over
67.8%
Under
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chindia Targoviste over/under 1.5
Over
31.3%
Under
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chindia Targoviste over/under 2.5
Over
10.6%
Under
89.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chindia Targoviste over/under 3.5
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to ASA Targu Mures, so a minus line means ASA Targu Mures give that many goals of a start and Chindia Targoviste receive them. At -1, ASA Targu Mures must win by two or more to land; a one-goal ASA Targu Mures win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (ASA Targu Mures)
ASA Targu Mures -2
10.1%
Draw -2
14.5%
Chindia Targoviste +2
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (ASA Targu Mures)
ASA Targu Mures -1
24.6%
Draw -1
21.9%
Chindia Targoviste +1
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (ASA Targu Mures)
ASA Targu Mures +1
73.9%
Draw +1
15.4%
Chindia Targoviste -1
10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (ASA Targu Mures)
ASA Targu Mures +2
89.3%
Draw +2
7.4%
Chindia Targoviste -2
3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
ASA Targu Mures
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.86
0.36
0.56
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.50
0.85
0.38
0.54
0.62
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Chindia Targoviste) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chindia Targoviste
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
0.71
0.43
0.69
0.75
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.76
0.78
0.67
0.75
0.83
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (ASA Targu Mures) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chindia Targoviste over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chindia Targoviste over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chindia Targoviste over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
ASA Targu Mures
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
1.07
0.64
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.73
0.77
0.62
0.46
0.85
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
0.50
5.00
1.00
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Chindia Targoviste) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chindia Targoviste
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.83
0.79
1.07
0.56
0.62
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.33
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.76
0.78
1.00
0.67
0.58
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (ASA Targu Mures) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chindia Targoviste over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chindia Targoviste over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chindia Targoviste over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (37)
€11m
CON (26)
€5m
BO (23)
€4m
CT (21)
€3m
CSB (24)
€3m
SLA (23)
€3m
ATM (22)
€3m
CR (20)
€3m
MB (19)
€3m
FB (23)
€2m
VŞ (19)
€2m
GB (20)
€2m
CSM (19)
€2m
MET (15)
€1m
US (13)
€1m
DUM (15)
€1m
CA (14)
€1m
CDB (14)
€1m
ŞTE (8)
€1m
CRV (10)
€1m
POP (9)
€1m
ASA Targu Mures and Chindia Targoviste have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (13)
€5m
CON (11)
€2m
CT (8)
€2m
SLA (10)
€1m
ATM (7)
€1m
MB (6)
€1m
CSB (8)
€1m
VŞ (8)
€1m
CR (9)
€1m
BO (6)
€1m
GB (8)
€1m
FB (8)
€1m
MET (5)
€1m
CRV (5)
€1m
CA (6)
€1m
US (4)
€0m
CSM (7)
€0m
CDB (3)
€0m
POP (3)
€0m
DUM (3)
€0m
ŞTE (2)
€0m
ASA Targu Mures and Chindia Targoviste have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (9)
€2m
CON (6)
€1m
BO (6)
€1m
CSB (6)
€1m
FB (6)
€1m
ATM (4)
€1m
US (4)
€0m
GB (5)
€0m
DUM (4)
€0m
CR (4)
€0m
MB (4)
€0m
CA (4)
€0m
POP (4)
€0m
CT (2)
€0m
MET (3)
€0m
VŞ (3)
€0m
ŞTE (3)
€0m
CSM (4)
€0m
SLA (4)
€0m
CDB (4)
€0m
CRV (1)
€0m
ASA Targu Mures and Chindia Targoviste have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (15)
€5m
BO (11)
€2m
SLA (9)
€1m
CR (7)
€1m
CSB (10)
€1m
CT (11)
€1m
ATM (11)
€1m
MB (9)
€1m
CON (9)
€1m
CSM (8)
€1m
FB (9)
€1m
CDB (7)
€1m
ŞTE (3)
€1m
VŞ (8)
€1m
DUM (8)
€1m
GB (7)
€1m
MET (7)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
CRV (4)
€0m
CA (4)
€0m
POP (2)
€0m
ASA Targu Mures and Chindia Targoviste have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Romania: Liga II 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Romania: Liga II stats & trends →