ASA Targu Mures are the clear favourites, with the model rating a 62 % chance of a home win. Their recent 1-0 victory over Gloria Bistriţa and the fact that they are playing at home against a weaker opponent give the model confidence. The expected total of 3.1 goals is high, yet the most likely total remains 2, with a 22 % probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.3 % chance. ASA’s home form shows an average of 4.5 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded versus weaker teams, while Dinamo București’s away record is 1.29 scored and 2.71 conceded against stronger sides. Home win probability is 62 %, draw 22 %, away win 16 %. The model’s suggested picks are: Under 7.5 (98.5 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.1 %), Under 6.5 (96.0 %), Home +2 handicap (94.3 %), Away under 2.5 goals (92.1 %), Under 5.5 (90.4 %), Home over 0.5 goals (88.0 %), and Home or Draw (84.2 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
ASA Targu Mures win
62.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
CS Dinamo București win
15.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
ASA Targu Mures
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.20
1.93
1.00
1.19
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.31
1.23
1.62
1.00
1.00
1.46
vs Weaker (4)
3.00
1.00
6.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (CS Dinamo București) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CS Dinamo București
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
2.03
0.87
1.87
1.00
2.20
vs Stronger (22)
0.95
2.14
0.67
2.08
1.30
2.20
vs Similar (8)
0.88
1.75
1.67
1.00
0.40
2.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (ASA Targu Mures) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.7%
Under 1.5
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.3%
Under 2.5
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.9%
Under 3.5
62.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.4%
No
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.3%
2-0
10.0%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
8.5%
3-0
7.1%
3-1
7.0%
0-0
5.4%
2-2
4.9%
ASA Targu Mures goals ↓
CS Dinamo București goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
3.5%
2.2%
0.7%
0.2%
1
8.5%
10%
4.6%
1.5%
0.4%
2
10.0%
9.9%
4.9%
1.6%
0.4%
3
7.1%
7.0%
3.5%
1.2%
0.3%
4
3.8%
3.7%
1.9%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ASA Targu Mures goals (down), columns = CS Dinamo București goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Politehnica Timisoara
2.60
Slatina
2.60
Concordia
2.40
CSM Reşiţa
2.40
Popești-Leordeni
1.80
Gloria Bistriţa
1.80
Chindia Targoviste
1.80
FC Bacau
1.60
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.60
Metalul Buzău
1.40
Metaloglobus
1.40
Cetatea Suceava
1.40
CS Afumati
1.40
Ştefăneşti
1.20
Bihor Oradea
1.20
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.00
ASA Targu Mures
0.80
CS Dinamo București
0.60
Dumbrăviţa
0.60
CSM Satu Mare
0.40
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
0.20
Unirea Slobozia
0.20
ASA Targu Mures is 0.20 points better than CS Dinamo București in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 0.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Concordia
2.20
FC Politehnica Timisoara
2.20
Popești-Leordeni
2.00
Chindia Targoviste
2.00
FC Bacau
2.00
Slatina
2.00
CSM Reşiţa
1.80
Gloria Bistriţa
1.40
Metaloglobus
1.40
Cetatea Suceava
1.40
Bihor Oradea
1.20
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.20
CS Afumati
1.20
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.00
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.00
Metalul Buzău
1.00
CS Dinamo București
0.80
Dumbrăviţa
0.80
Ştefăneşti
0.80
ASA Targu Mures
0.60
Unirea Slobozia
0.60
CSM Satu Mare
0.20
ASA Targu Mures is 0.20 goals worse than CS Dinamo București in terms of goals scored per game (0.60 vs 0.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Politehnica Timisoara
0.40
Slatina
0.40
Gloria Bistriţa
0.80
Bihor Oradea
0.80
Chindia Targoviste
1.00
FC Bacau
1.00
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.00
Popești-Leordeni
1.20
Dumbrăviţa
1.20
CSM Reşiţa
1.20
Metalul Buzău
1.20
CSM Satu Mare
1.20
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.40
Cetatea Suceava
1.40
Concordia
1.60
ASA Targu Mures
1.60
Metaloglobus
1.60
Unirea Slobozia
1.80
CS Afumati
1.80
CS Dinamo București
2.00
Ştefăneşti
2.00
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
2.20
ASA Targu Mures is 0.40 goals better than CS Dinamo București in terms of goals conceded per game (1.60 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ASA Targu Mures or Draw
84.2%
Avg Implied -
62%
22%
16%
covers ASA Targu Mures + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures or CS Dinamo București
78.1%
Avg Implied -
62%
22%
16%
covers ASA Targu Mures + CS Dinamo București
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or CS Dinamo București
37.6%
Avg Implied -
62%
22%
16%
covers Draw + CS Dinamo București
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 0.5
Over
88.0%
Under
12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 1.5
Over
62.7%
Under
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 2.5
Over
35.7%
Under
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 3.5
Over
16.6%
Under
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CS Dinamo București over/under 0.5
Over
63.0%
Under
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CS Dinamo București over/under 1.5
Over
26.2%
Under
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CS Dinamo București over/under 2.5
Over
7.9%
Under
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CS Dinamo București over/under 3.5
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to ASA Targu Mures, so a minus line means ASA Targu Mures give that many goals of a start and CS Dinamo București receive them. At -1, ASA Targu Mures must win by two or more to land; a one-goal ASA Targu Mures win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (ASA Targu Mures)
ASA Targu Mures -2
20.6%
Draw -2
19.2%
CS Dinamo București +2
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (ASA Targu Mures)
ASA Targu Mures -1
39.8%
Draw -1
22.6%
CS Dinamo București +1
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (ASA Targu Mures)
ASA Targu Mures +1
84.2%
Draw +1
10.1%
CS Dinamo București -1
5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (ASA Targu Mures)
ASA Targu Mures +2
94.3%
Draw +2
4.2%
CS Dinamo București -2
1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
ASA Targu Mures
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.86
0.36
0.56
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.50
0.85
0.38
0.54
0.62
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (CS Dinamo București) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CS Dinamo București
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
0.93
0.20
0.93
0.20
0.93
vs Stronger (22)
0.18
1.05
0.17
1.08
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.25
0.62
0.33
0.33
0.20
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (ASA Targu Mures) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CS Dinamo București over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CS Dinamo București over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CS Dinamo București over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
ASA Targu Mures
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
1.07
0.64
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.73
0.77
0.62
0.46
0.85
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
0.50
5.00
1.00
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (CS Dinamo București) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CS Dinamo București
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.10
0.67
0.93
0.80
1.27
vs Stronger (22)
0.77
1.09
0.50
1.00
1.10
1.20
vs Similar (8)
0.62
1.12
1.33
0.67
0.20
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (ASA Targu Mures) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CS Dinamo București over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CS Dinamo București over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CS Dinamo București over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (37)
€11m
CON (26)
€5m
BO (23)
€4m
CT (21)
€3m
CSB (24)
€3m
SLA (23)
€3m
ATM (22)
€3m
CR (20)
€3m
MB (19)
€3m
FB (23)
€2m
VŞ (19)
€2m
GB (20)
€2m
CSM (19)
€2m
MET (15)
€1m
US (13)
€1m
DUM (15)
€1m
CA (14)
€1m
CDB (14)
€1m
ŞTE (8)
€1m
CRV (10)
€1m
POP (9)
€1m
ASA Targu Mures's squad is €2m more valuable than CS Dinamo București's (€3m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (13)
€5m
CON (11)
€2m
CT (8)
€2m
SLA (10)
€1m
ATM (7)
€1m
MB (6)
€1m
CSB (8)
€1m
VŞ (8)
€1m
CR (9)
€1m
BO (6)
€1m
GB (8)
€1m
FB (8)
€1m
MET (5)
€1m
CRV (5)
€1m
CA (6)
€1m
US (4)
€0m
CSM (7)
€0m
CDB (3)
€0m
POP (3)
€0m
DUM (3)
€0m
ŞTE (2)
€0m
ASA Targu Mures and CS Dinamo București have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (9)
€2m
CON (6)
€1m
BO (6)
€1m
CSB (6)
€1m
FB (6)
€1m
ATM (4)
€1m
US (4)
€0m
GB (5)
€0m
DUM (4)
€0m
CR (4)
€0m
MB (4)
€0m
CA (4)
€0m
POP (4)
€0m
CT (2)
€0m
MET (3)
€0m
VŞ (3)
€0m
ŞTE (3)
€0m
CSM (4)
€0m
SLA (4)
€0m
CDB (4)
€0m
CRV (1)
€0m
ASA Targu Mures and CS Dinamo București have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (15)
€5m
BO (11)
€2m
SLA (9)
€1m
CR (7)
€1m
CSB (10)
€1m
CT (11)
€1m
ATM (11)
€1m
MB (9)
€1m
CON (9)
€1m
CSM (8)
€1m
FB (9)
€1m
CDB (7)
€1m
ŞTE (3)
€1m
VŞ (8)
€1m
DUM (8)
€1m
GB (7)
€1m
MET (7)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
CRV (4)
€0m
CA (4)
€0m
POP (2)
€0m
ASA Targu Mures and CS Dinamo București have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Romania: Liga II 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Romania: Liga II stats & trends →