Asane and Kongsvinger are set to face off in a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.7 goals. Recent form suggests that both teams are coming off defeats, Asane losing 1-4 to ODD Ballklubb and Kongsvinger losing 1-3 to Strommen. Historically, Asane struggles at home, conceding an average of 1.75 goals and scoring just 1.0, while facing stronger opponents. On the other hand, Kongsvinger has been scoring an average of 2.56 goals when away, facing weaker opponents and conceding 1.44 goals.
The model predicts a 52% chance of an away win, with the most likely correct score being 1-1 at 9.2%. The model's selection is the away win. Asane has a 26% chance of winning, a 22% chance of drawing, and a 52% chance of losing. The model also suggests selecting Over 1.5 at 88.9% and Over 2.5 at 70.8%.
Results analysis
Asane's recent struggles continued, with the loss extending their run of two straight defeats. The final score of 1-2 reflected the actual result, with Kongsvinger securing an away win. The model's selection, the away win, was correct, despite the low pre-match probability of 52%. The model's call was vindicated as Kongsvinger came off a win and had a stronger opponent strength in their away form. The model's selections largely came in, with over 1.5 goals hitting and over 2.5 goals also coming in, both with high probabilities of 88.9% and 70.8% respectively.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Asane win✗ Miss
26.1%
Avg Implied 17.9% · @ 5.10
Edge
+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
5.50
1xBet
5.28
Pinnacle
5.27
Bet365
5.25
Marathonbet
5.25
Draw✗ Miss
22.4%
Avg Implied 19.3% · @ 4.75
Edge
+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.04
BetVictor
5.00
Dafabet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.85
Kongsvinger win✓ Hit
51.5%
Avg Implied 62.8% · @ 1.46
Edge
-11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Unibet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
Bet365
1.48
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Asane
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
2.13
1.47
2.00
1.13
2.27
vs Stronger (11)
0.91
2.36
1.17
2.50
0.60
2.20
vs Similar (18)
1.44
2.00
1.67
1.67
1.22
2.33
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
2.00
-
-
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
3% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Kongsvinger) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kongsvinger
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.30
1.57
2.12
1.75
2.50
1.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
2.00
1.86
2.00
2.00
2.00
1.67
vs Weaker (8)
3.12
0.75
2.67
0.67
3.40
0.80
Clean sheet %
20% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Asane) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.9%
@ 1.06+1.2%
Under 1.5
11.1%
@ 7.57-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.09
Unibet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Under
Bet365
9.00
BetVictor
8.50
Betfair
8.50
888Sport
8.00
Superbet
7.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
70.8%
@ 1.27-2.2%
Under 2.5
29.2%
@ 3.43+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Under
BetVictor
3.60
Bet365
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Pinnacle
3.51
Superbet
3.50
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
49.8%
@ 1.71-4.7%
Under 3.5
50.2%
@ 2.05+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.76
Pinnacle
1.75
Betfair
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Under
10Bet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.09
Superbet
2.07
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
69.7%
@ 1.37+2.3%
No
30.3%
@ 2.84-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.38
Superbet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
No
BetVictor
3.00
Betfair
3.00
William Hil
2.90
888Sport
2.90
1xBet
2.81
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.2%@ 10.11+4.8%
1-2 ✓
9.0%@ 7.97+3.4%
2-2
6.8%@ 11.45+2.9%
1-3
6.4%@ 9.28+1.7%
2-1
6.3%@ 15.78+3.5%
0-2
5.9%@ 10.58+1.8%
2-3
4.9%@ 12.82+1.4%
0-1
4.7%@ 12.72+1.2%
Asane goals ↓
Kongsvinger goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.4%
4.7%
5.9%
4.3%
2.3%
1
3.0%
9.2%
9.0%
6.4%
3.5%
2
2.9%
6.3%
6.8%
4.9%
2.6%
3
1.5%
3.2%
3.4%
2.4%
1.3%
4
0.6%
1.2%
1.3%
0.9%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Asane goals (down), columns = Kongsvinger goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stabaek
2.50
Kongsvinger
2.17
hodd
2.14
Haugesund
2.14
Stromsgodset
1.86
Bryne
1.86
Lyn
1.83
Strommen
1.67
Egersund
1.57
Sogndal
1.17
ODD Ballklubb
1.14
Asane
0.83
Sandnes ULF
0.57
Raufoss
0.50
Ranheim
0.50
Moss
0.29
Asane is 1.33 points worse than Kongsvinger in terms of average points per game (0.83 vs 2.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stabaek
3.50
Haugesund
3.14
Lyn
3.00
Kongsvinger
2.83
Ranheim
2.50
hodd
2.43
Stromsgodset
2.14
ODD Ballklubb
2.00
Strommen
2.00
Sogndal
1.83
Egersund
1.71
Asane
1.67
Moss
1.29
Bryne
1.14
Sandnes ULF
1.14
Raufoss
1.00
Asane is 1.17 goals worse than Kongsvinger in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 2.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bryne
1.00
Stabaek
1.17
Haugesund
1.57
Stromsgodset
1.57
Egersund
1.71
Kongsvinger
1.83
Strommen
1.83
Sogndal
2.00
Lyn
2.17
Moss
2.29
ODD Ballklubb
2.29
Sandnes ULF
2.29
Asane
2.33
hodd
2.86
Raufoss
3.00
Ranheim
3.33
Asane is 0.50 goals worse than Kongsvinger in terms of goals conceded per game (2.33 vs 1.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Asane
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.00
0.87
0.87
0.60
1.13
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.78
1.06
1.00
0.78
0.56
1.33
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Kongsvinger) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kongsvinger
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
0.88
0.81
1.07
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.82
0.68
0.85
0.85
0.78
0.44
vs Weaker (8)
1.38
0.50
1.00
0.67
1.60
0.40
Clean sheet %
57% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Asane) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Asane over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asane over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asane over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Asane
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.13
0.60
1.13
0.53
1.13
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
1.36
0.50
1.50
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.94
0.67
0.89
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kongsvinger) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kongsvinger
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.93
1.25
0.94
1.43
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.18
1.18
1.15
1.15
1.22
1.22
vs Weaker (8)
1.75
0.25
1.67
0.00
1.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
37% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Asane) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Asane over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asane over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asane over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
88.9%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Unibet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
70.8%
1.27
Pinnacle
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.26
-2.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (24)
€9m
OB (25)
€9m
HAU (24)
€9m
STR (22)
€7m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
STR (19)
€2m
Asane's squad is €3m less valuable than Kongsvinger's (€3m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (9)
€5m
STR (9)
€3m
HAU (8)
€3m
KON (10)
€3m
OB (6)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
STR (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Asane's attack is €2m less valuable than Kongsvinger's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OB (7)
€3m
HAU (6)
€2m
STR (5)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
STR (4)
€0m
Asane and Kongsvinger have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAU (10)
€4m
OB (12)
€3m
STA (10)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
STR (8)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
STR (10)
€1m
Asane and Kongsvinger have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Norway: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stabaek
Haugesund
hodd
Stromsgodset
Bryne
Lyn
Egersund
Strommen
ODD Ballklubb
Sogndal
Sandnes ULF
Ranheim
Raufoss
Moss