Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus Result & Analysis

Asteras Tripolis face Olympiakos Piraeus in a match where the model strongly favours an away win, assigning a 64% probability to that outcome. The model rates Olympiakos highly because they average 1.89 goals scored and only 0.56 conceded on the road, while Asteras struggles at home against stronger teams, scoring just 1.0 and conceding 1.75. The expected total is 2.4 goals, with the most likely total goal count being 2, and the single most probable scoreline is 0-1 for the away side at 15.3%. Home win probability sits at 11%, draw at 24%, and away win at 64%. The suggested picks include Over 2.5 cards at 93.6%, Over 19.5 fouls at 93.5%, Over 21.5 fouls at 86.3%, Over 23.5 fouls at 75.3%, Under 11.5 corners at 80.8%, Under 10.5 corners at 71.2%, Under 3.5 at 78.1%, and Over 3.5 cards at 84.4%. Each pick is listed with its probability, and the edge percentages are noted where provided.

The match saw Olympiakos Piraeus extend their unbeaten run, winning 0-3 to secure the predicted away victory. The model had named an away win as the favourite with a 64% probability, and this call was correct. The most likely scoreline was 0-1, but the actual 0-3 result still fell within the model’s forecast of a 2-goal total, which the model had pegged at 2.4 with a 27% chance. The model’s selections largely came through: Over 2.5 cards hit at 93.6%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 93.5%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 86.3%, Under 11.5 corners hit at 80.8%, Under 3.5 hit at 78.1%, Over 23.5 fouls hit at 75.3%, and Under 10.5 corners hit at 71.2%. Only the Over 3.5 cards selection missed, at 84.4%.