Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK Result & Analysis

PAOK are the clear favourites to win this encounter, with the model assigning a 56% chance to an away victory, 24% to a draw and 20% to a home win. The expected total of goals is three, yet the most probable total is two, with the single most likely scoreline 1-1 at 11.4%. Asteras Tripolis, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages one goal scored and none conceded, while PAOK, on the road against a weaker side, averages 2.1 goals scored and 0.7 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 80.8%, Over 19.5 fouls at 93.0%, Over 2.5 cards at 90.1%, Over 21.5 fouls at 85.4%, Over 23.5 fouls at 74.0%, Under 11.5 corners at 84.5%, Under 10.5 corners at 75.9%, and Over 3.5 cards at 77.8%. Each pick is listed with its exact probability, and the edge percentages are omitted where not provided.

Asteras Tripolis’ slump continued as the win extended their run of three straight defeats, while PAOK, fresh from a victory, kept their momentum. The final score was 1-2, an away win that matched the model’s favourite prediction of an away win, which the model called correctly. The model’s 56% probability for an away win proved accurate. The suggested picks also largely materialised: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 93%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 90.1%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 85.4%, Under 11.5 corners hit at 84.5%, Over 1.5 hit at 80.8%, Under 10.5 corners hit at 75.9%, Over 23.5 fouls hit at 74.0%, while Over 3.5 cards missed at 77.8%. The model’s selections performed strongly overall.