This opponent (Crystal Palace) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crystal Palace
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.40
2.25
1.12
1.00
1.71
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
2.33
1.00
2.67
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.91
1.18
2.67
0.75
1.00
1.70
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Aston Villa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.7%
Under 1.5
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.9%
Under 2.5
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.5%
Under 3.5
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.6%
No
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-0
11.0%
0-0
9.4%
2-1
9.2%
2-0
9.2%
0-1
6.9%
1-2 ✓
6.2%
2-2
4.7%
Aston Villa goals ↓
Crystal Palace goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.4%
6.9%
4.1%
1.4%
0.3%
1
11%
14%
6.2%
2.1%
0.5%
2
9.2%
9.2%
4.7%
1.6%
0.4%
3
4.6%
4.6%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.7%
1.7%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aston Villa goals (down), columns = Crystal Palace goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Newcastle
2.71
Sheffield Weds
2.50
Tottenham
2.40
Fleetwood Town
2.33
Crystal Palace
2.25
Manchester United
2.00
Derby
2.00
Everton
2.00
Liverpool
2.00
Leyton Orient
2.00
Blackpool
2.00
Brighton
2.00
Watford
2.00
Wycombe
2.00
Fulham
2.00
Coventry
2.00
Arsenal
1.80
Southampton
1.75
Preston
1.75
Brentford
1.75
Stoke
1.75
Walsall
1.67
Oxford
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.50
Aston Villa
1.50
Blackburn
1.50
Birmingham
1.50
Doncaster
1.50
West Ham
1.50
Swansea
1.50
Millwall
1.50
Huddersfield
1.50
Wolves
1.50
Norwich
1.50
Rotherham
1.50
Cardiff
1.50
Tranmere
1.50
Plymouth
1.50
Chelsea
1.50
Crawley Town
1.50
Manchester City
1.50
Harrogate
1.50
Sheffield United
1.50
Barrow
1.33
Leicester
1.33
QPR
1.33
AFC Wimbledon
1.33
Barnsley
1.33
Bolton
1.33
Luton
1.00
Notts County
1.00
Wigan
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Exeter
1.00
Reading
1.00
Ipswich
1.00
Bradford
1.00
Shrewsbury
0.50
Colchester
0.50
Grimsby
0.50
Bristol City
0.00
Charlton
0.00
Gillingham
0.00
Bromley
0.00
Lincoln
0.00
Wrexham
0.00
Newport County
0.00
Bristol Rvs
0.00
Accrington
0.00
Swindon
0.00
Burton
0.00
Burnley
0.00
Sunderland
0.00
Stockport
0.00
Salford
0.00
Morecambe
0.00
Portsmouth
0.00
Cheltenham
0.00
Crewe
0.00
Carlisle
0.00
Milton Keynes Dons
0.00
Cambridge
0.00
Chesterfield
0.00
Stevenage
0.00
Peterboro
0.00
West Brom
0.00
Bournemouth
0.00
Leeds
0.00
Hull
0.00
Northampton
0.00
Port Vale
0.00
Aston Villa is 0.75 points worse than Crystal Palace in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 2.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester United
5.00
Blackburn
3.50
Notts County
3.00
Brighton
3.00
Stevenage
3.00
Watford
2.67
Southampton
2.50
Liverpool
2.50
Huddersfield
2.50
Cardiff
2.50
Crystal Palace
2.50
Chelsea
2.50
Stoke
2.50
Sheffield Weds
2.25
Arsenal
2.20
Wrexham
2.00
Everton
2.00
Preston
2.00
Leyton Orient
2.00
Blackpool
2.00
Swindon
2.00
Wolves
2.00
Norwich
2.00
Crawley Town
2.00
Leicester
2.00
Sheffield United
2.00
Reading
2.00
Ipswich
2.00
Port Vale
2.00
Newcastle
1.86
Tottenham
1.80
Fleetwood Town
1.67
Shrewsbury
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.50
Aston Villa
1.50
Swansea
1.50
Brentford
1.50
Fulham
1.50
Rotherham
1.50
Tranmere
1.50
Plymouth
1.50
Manchester City
1.50
Walsall
1.33
Wycombe
1.33
QPR
1.33
AFC Wimbledon
1.33
Bolton
1.33
Luton
1.00
Oxford
1.00
Gillingham
1.00
Bromley
1.00
Barrow
1.00
Lincoln
1.00
Wigan
1.00
Doncaster
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Newport County
1.00
West Ham
1.00
Derby
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Stockport
1.00
Colchester
1.00
Grimsby
1.00
Exeter
1.00
Crewe
1.00
Cambridge
1.00
Chesterfield
1.00
Harrogate
1.00
Coventry
1.00
West Brom
1.00
Hull
1.00
Bradford
1.00
Barnsley
0.67
Birmingham
0.50
Millwall
0.50
Bristol City
0.00
Charlton
0.00
Bristol Rvs
0.00
Accrington
0.00
Burton
0.00
Burnley
0.00
Sunderland
0.00
Salford
0.00
Morecambe
0.00
Portsmouth
0.00
Cheltenham
0.00
Carlisle
0.00
Milton Keynes Dons
0.00
Peterboro
0.00
Bournemouth
0.00
Leeds
0.00
Northampton
0.00
Aston Villa is 1.00 goals worse than Crystal Palace in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 2.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Newcastle
0.43
Oxford
0.50
Derby
0.50
Everton
0.50
Millwall
0.50
Fulham
0.50
Blackpool
0.67
Watford
0.67
Wycombe
0.67
Coventry
0.67
Sheffield Weds
0.75
Luton
1.00
Walsall
1.00
Bristol City
1.00
Charlton
1.00
Birmingham
1.00
Wigan
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Swansea
1.00
Preston
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Exeter
1.00
Portsmouth
1.00
Plymouth
1.00
Chelsea
1.00
Stoke
1.00
Bournemouth
1.00
Bradford
1.00
Fleetwood Town
1.00
Liverpool
1.17
Brentford
1.25
Crystal Palace
1.25
Leyton Orient
1.33
QPR
1.33
AFC Wimbledon
1.33
Arsenal
1.40
Aston Villa
1.50
Blackburn
1.50
Doncaster
1.50
Huddersfield
1.50
Colchester
1.50
Wolves
1.50
Rotherham
1.50
Manchester City
1.50
Sheffield United
1.50
Brighton
1.67
Leicester
1.67
Tottenham
1.80
Bromley
2.00
Manchester United
2.00
Lincoln
2.00
Southampton
2.00
Bristol Rvs
2.00
Burnley
2.00
Sunderland
2.00
Tranmere
2.00
Salford
2.00
Crewe
2.00
Carlisle
2.00
Cambridge
2.00
Chesterfield
2.00
Peterboro
2.00
West Brom
2.00
Reading
2.00
Hull
2.00
Ipswich
2.00
Northampton
2.00
Bolton
2.00
Barrow
2.33
Shrewsbury
2.50
Middlesbrough
2.50
West Ham
2.50
Cardiff
2.50
Barnsley
2.67
Gillingham
3.00
Notts County
3.00
Accrington
3.00
Grimsby
3.00
Morecambe
3.00
Cheltenham
3.00
Crawley Town
3.00
Harrogate
3.00
Leeds
3.00
Port Vale
3.00
Norwich
3.50
Wrexham
4.00
Newport County
4.00
Swindon
4.00
Burton
4.00
Stevenage
4.00
Milton Keynes Dons
5.00
Stockport
6.00
Aston Villa is 0.25 goals worse than Crystal Palace in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Aston Villa
For 5.4 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 4.3 · Total 7.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 11.9 · Total 24.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Crystal Palace
For 5.1 · Against 5.5 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 11.6 · Total 22.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aston Villa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.5
10.5
5.3
5.2
5.4
23.3
23.7
22.9
vs Stronger (6)
7.3
7.2
7.5
4.3
4.8
3.5
22.3
24.0
19.0
vs Similar (30)
10.9
10.3
11.4
5.4
4.7
6.2
22.7
22.6
22.9
vs Weaker (14)
9.1
9.0
9.2
5.4
6.6
4.1
25.0
25.7
24.2
% over line
47%
42%
52%
76%
77%
75%
67%
77%
57%
% under line
53%
58%
48%
24%
23%
25%
33%
23%
43%
This opponent (Crystal Palace) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crystal Palace
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
9.8
10.5
3.9
4.1
3.7
23.5
23.8
23.1
vs Stronger (10)
9.8
10.0
9.6
3.9
4.8
3.0
22.9
23.4
22.4
vs Similar (37)
10.1
9.5
10.8
3.9
3.9
3.9
23.3
23.6
23.1
vs Weaker (3)
11.5
14.0
9.0
4.0
5.0
3.5
29.0
31.0
27.0
% over line
58%
52%
65%
58%
65%
50%
65%
68%
61%
% under line
42%
48%
35%
42%
35%
50%
35%
32%
39%
This opponent (Aston Villa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Tottenham
12.8
Manchester United
12.3
Bournemouth
11.8
Exeter
11.7
Coventry
11.7
Plymouth
11.7
Luton
11.6
Southampton
11.6
Crawley Town
11.4
Sheffield Weds
11.3
Bromley
11.3
QPR
11.3
Barnsley
11.3
Sheffield United
11.3
Huddersfield
11.2
Port Vale
11.1
Tranmere
11.1
Manchester City
11.0
Everton
11.0
Fleetwood Town
11.0
Stoke
10.9
Derby
10.9
West Brom
10.9
Harrogate
10.9
Brentford
10.9
Bristol City
10.8
Rotherham
10.8
Swansea
10.8
Morecambe
10.7
Wrexham
10.7
Charlton
10.7
Middlesbrough
10.7
Newcastle
10.7
Notts County
10.7
Wycombe
10.7
Liverpool
10.7
Wolves
10.6
Ipswich
10.6
Blackburn
10.6
Mansfield
10.6
Bolton
10.5
Leeds
10.5
Fulham
10.5
Doncaster
10.5
Grimsby
10.5
Hull
10.5
Reading
10.5
Burnley
10.5
Birmingham
10.5
Chelsea
10.5
Norwich
10.4
Nottingham Forest
10.4
Walsall
10.4
Peterboro
10.4
Millwall
10.3
Swindon
10.3
Crewe
10.3
Accrington
10.2
Oxford
10.2
Bristol Rvs
10.2
Portsmouth
10.2
Lincoln
10.2
Crystal Palace
10.2
Shrewsbury
10.2
Chesterfield
10.1
Bradford
10.1
Sunderland
10.1
Watford
10.1
Stevenage
10.0
Colchester
10.0
Aston Villa
10.0
Blackpool
9.9
Leicester
9.9
Leyton Orient
9.8
Newport County
9.8
Carlisle
9.7
Salford
9.7
Cheltenham
9.7
Gillingham
9.6
Brighton
9.6
West Ham
9.6
Cardiff
9.4
Barrow
9.4
AFC Wimbledon
9.3
Cambridge
9.2
Preston
9.2
Stockport
9.2
Wigan
9.0
Arsenal
9.0
Burton
8.9
Northampton
8.8
Milton Keynes Dons
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aston Villa
5.5
Chelsea
5.5
Wigan
5.1
Brighton
5.0
Tottenham
5.0
Wolves
5.0
Stevenage
4.9
Portsmouth
4.8
Newcastle
4.8
Sunderland
4.8
Southampton
4.8
Lincoln
4.7
Nottingham Forest
4.6
Bradford
4.6
Bournemouth
4.6
Salford
4.6
Crawley Town
4.6
Plymouth
4.4
Leicester
4.4
Crewe
4.4
Manchester United
4.4
Colchester
4.4
AFC Wimbledon
4.4
Bolton
4.3
Millwall
4.3
Cheltenham
4.3
Notts County
4.3
Watford
4.3
Burnley
4.3
QPR
4.3
Doncaster
4.3
Coventry
4.3
Barrow
4.3
Blackburn
4.3
Tranmere
4.3
Blackpool
4.2
Leeds
4.2
Milton Keynes Dons
4.2
Bristol Rvs
4.2
Morecambe
4.2
Liverpool
4.2
Swansea
4.2
Exeter
4.2
Sheffield Weds
4.2
Port Vale
4.2
West Ham
4.2
Norwich
4.2
Cambridge
4.2
Brentford
4.2
Gillingham
4.2
Oxford
4.2
Middlesbrough
4.1
Luton
4.1
Stoke
4.1
Sheffield United
4.1
Fleetwood Town
4.1
Barnsley
4.1
Birmingham
4.0
Wycombe
4.0
Hull
4.0
Mansfield
4.0
Charlton
4.0
Crystal Palace
4.0
Chesterfield
4.0
Burton
3.9
Preston
3.9
Fulham
3.9
Wrexham
3.9
Huddersfield
3.9
Ipswich
3.9
Arsenal
3.9
Accrington
3.8
Shrewsbury
3.8
Northampton
3.8
Grimsby
3.8
Bromley
3.7
Leyton Orient
3.7
Walsall
3.6
Newport County
3.6
West Brom
3.6
Derby
3.6
Cardiff
3.6
Stockport
3.6
Reading
3.6
Carlisle
3.5
Everton
3.5
Manchester City
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Bristol City
3.4
Rotherham
3.3
Peterboro
3.3
Harrogate
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stevenage
26.3
Wigan
25.3
Tottenham
25.1
Portsmouth
24.9
Cheltenham
24.8
Accrington
24.8
Luton
24.3
Birmingham
24.0
Grimsby
23.8
Stockport
23.7
Wolves
23.6
Sunderland
23.6
Milton Keynes Dons
23.5
Leeds
23.5
AFC Wimbledon
23.5
Salford
23.5
Chelsea
23.5
Bolton
23.5
Doncaster
23.5
Cambridge
23.4
Blackpool
23.4
Watford
23.4
Crystal Palace
23.4
Chesterfield
23.4
Bournemouth
23.3
Bradford
23.3
Newcastle
23.3
Aston Villa
23.2
Lincoln
23.2
Coventry
23.2
Preston
23.2
Millwall
23.1
Ipswich
23.1
Bristol Rvs
23.0
Bromley
22.9
Huddersfield
22.9
Shrewsbury
22.7
Brighton
22.6
Barrow
22.6
Plymouth
22.5
Exeter
22.5
Swansea
22.5
QPR
22.5
Reading
22.5
Crewe
22.4
Hull
22.3
Newport County
22.3
Southampton
22.3
Nottingham Forest
22.2
Sheffield Weds
22.1
Colchester
22.1
Burton
22.1
Middlesbrough
22.0
Morecambe
21.9
Rotherham
21.9
Arsenal
21.9
Fleetwood Town
21.8
Wycombe
21.8
Stoke
21.7
Liverpool
21.7
Mansfield
21.6
Burnley
21.5
Crawley Town
21.5
Oxford
21.5
Norwich
21.5
Derby
21.5
Everton
21.5
Leicester
21.4
Charlton
21.4
Walsall
21.3
Fulham
21.2
Gillingham
21.2
Wrexham
21.1
West Ham
21.0
Port Vale
21.0
Blackburn
20.9
Leyton Orient
20.8
Bristol City
20.8
Swindon
20.7
Peterboro
20.6
Northampton
20.6
Cardiff
20.6
Carlisle
20.5
Brentford
20.5
Barnsley
20.5
Notts County
20.3
Sheffield United
20.3
Tranmere
20.1
Manchester United
20.1
Harrogate
20.1
West Brom
19.4
Manchester City
18.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
50.1%
Under 9.5
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
74.2%
Under 3.5
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
77.8%
Under 21.5
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Aston Villa or Draw✗ Miss
75.9%
Avg Implied -
48%
28%
24%
covers Aston Villa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa or Crystal Palace✓ Hit
71.6%
Avg Implied -
48%
28%
24%
covers Aston Villa + Crystal Palace
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Crystal Palace✓ Hit
52.5%
Avg Implied -
48%
28%
24%
covers Draw + Crystal Palace
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Aston Villa over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.8%
Under
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
44.3%
Under
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
19.2%
Under
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.6%
Under
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crystal Palace over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
63.4%
Under
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crystal Palace over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
26.6%
Under
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crystal Palace over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.1%
Under
91.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crystal Palace over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Aston Villa, so a minus line means Aston Villa give that many goals of a start and Crystal Palace receive them. At -1, Aston Villa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Aston Villa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Aston Villa)Actual: Crystal Palace
Aston Villa -2
9.8%
Draw -2
14.8%
Crystal Palace +2
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Aston Villa)Actual: Crystal Palace
Aston Villa -1
24.6%
Draw -1
22.9%
Crystal Palace +1
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Aston Villa)Actual: Draw
Aston Villa +1
75.9%
Draw +1
14.9%
Crystal Palace -1
9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Aston Villa)Actual: Aston Villa
Aston Villa +2
90.8%
Draw +2
6.6%
Crystal Palace -2
2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aston Villa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.60
0.62
0.50
0.57
0.71
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.68
0.80
0.50
0.44
0.89
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.43
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Crystal Palace) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crystal Palace
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
1.06
0.44
0.43
0.50
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.83
0.67
0.67
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.82
0.41
1.17
0.42
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Aston Villa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aston Villa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crystal Palace over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crystal Palace over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crystal Palace over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aston Villa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.90
1.31
1.00
0.79
0.79
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.89
1.11
1.20
1.40
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (7)
1.71
0.29
2.00
0.00
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Crystal Palace) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crystal Palace
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.93
1.19
0.69
0.57
1.21
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.50
0.33
2.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.09
0.77
1.50
0.33
0.60
1.30
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Aston Villa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aston Villa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crystal Palace over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crystal Palace over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crystal Palace over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Aston Villa
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jhon Durán41%
Ollie Watkins30%
Marco Asensio24%
Morgan Rogers22%
Donyell Malen18%
Marcus Rashford18%
Amadou Onana15%
Ross Barkley14%
Youri Tielemans9%
Jacob Ramsey9%
John McGinn8%
Ezri Konsa6%
Leon Bailey5%
Emiliano Buendía5%
Ian Maatsen4%
Matty Cash3%
Boubacar Kamara2%
Robin Olsen0%
Lucas Digne0%
Tyrone Mings0%
Emiliano Martínez0%
Diego Carlos0%
Axel Disasi0%
Pau Torres0%
Jaden Philogene-Bidace0%
Lamare Bogarde0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Jamaldeen Jimoh0%
Andrés García0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Diego Carlos29%
Morgan Rogers22%
Matty Cash21%
Axel Disasi20%
Jaden Philogene-Bidace20%
Jhon Durán17%
John McGinn16%
Tyrone Mings14%
Ross Barkley14%
Lucas Digne13%
Lamare Bogarde12%
Boubacar Kamara12%
Amadou Onana12%
Leon Bailey11%
Marco Asensio10%
Youri Tielemans9%
Emiliano Martínez9%
Pau Torres9%
Jacob Ramsey7%
Ian Maatsen7%
Emiliano Buendía5%
Ezri Konsa4%
Ollie Watkins4%
Donyell Malen0%
Robin Olsen0%
Marcus Rashford0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Jamaldeen Jimoh0%
Andrés García0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ollie Watkins24%
Marcus Rashford24%
Morgan Rogers20%
Youri Tielemans19%
John McGinn12%
Lucas Digne11%
Leon Bailey11%
Jacob Ramsey9%
Pau Torres6%
Marco Asensio5%
Ian Maatsen4%
Ross Barkley3%
Matty Cash3%
Donyell Malen0%
Robin Olsen0%
Boubacar Kamara0%
Jhon Durán0%
Emiliano Buendía0%
Tyrone Mings0%
Ezri Konsa0%
Emiliano Martínez0%
Diego Carlos0%
Axel Disasi0%
Jaden Philogene-Bidace0%
Amadou Onana0%
Lamare Bogarde0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Jamaldeen Jimoh0%
Andrés García0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jhon Durán28%
Marco Asensio24%
Marcus Rashford24%
Ollie Watkins19%
Morgan Rogers17%
Donyell Malen12%
Youri Tielemans9%
Jacob Ramsey4%
Leon Bailey3%
Ian Maatsen2%
John McGinn2%
Robin Olsen0%
Boubacar Kamara0%
Ross Barkley0%
Lucas Digne0%
Emiliano Buendía0%
Tyrone Mings0%
Matty Cash0%
Ezri Konsa0%
Emiliano Martínez0%
Diego Carlos0%
Axel Disasi0%
Pau Torres0%
Jaden Philogene-Bidace0%
Amadou Onana0%
Lamare Bogarde0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Jamaldeen Jimoh0%
Andrés García0%
Crystal Palace
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Eberechi Eze33%
Jean-Philippe Mateta28%
Trevoh Chalobah21%
Ismaïla Sarr17%
Edward Nketiah16%
Matheus França14%
Daniel Muñoz13%
Romain Esse11%
Ben Chilwell9%
Justin Devenny7%
Marc Guéhi7%
Daichi Kamada5%
Chris Richards3%
Maxence Lacroix2%
Jefferson Lerma0%
Cheick Doucouré0%
Will Hughes0%
Jeffrey Schlupp0%
Joel Ward0%
Nathaniel Clyne0%
Dean Henderson0%
Matt Turner0%
Tyrick Mitchell0%
Chadi Riad0%
Adam Wharton0%
Caleb Kporha0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joel Ward33%
Will Hughes29%
Daniel Muñoz28%
Caleb Kporha25%
Jefferson Lerma24%
Marc Guéhi20%
Edward Nketiah16%
Chris Richards16%
Daichi Kamada14%
Maxence Lacroix14%
Dean Henderson11%
Adam Wharton11%
Nathaniel Clyne11%
Ben Chilwell9%
Ismaïla Sarr9%
Cheick Doucouré7%
Trevoh Chalobah7%
Tyrick Mitchell7%
Jean-Philippe Mateta7%
Justin Devenny4%
Eberechi Eze2%
Jeffrey Schlupp0%
Matt Turner0%
Chadi Riad0%
Matheus França0%
Romain Esse0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Eberechi Eze23%
Daniel Muñoz15%
Ismaïla Sarr15%
Tyrick Mitchell13%
Adam Wharton11%
Romain Esse11%
Jean-Philippe Mateta9%
Will Hughes7%
Daichi Kamada7%
Edward Nketiah5%
Nathaniel Clyne5%
Marc Guéhi5%
Justin Devenny4%
Chris Richards3%
Jefferson Lerma2%
Maxence Lacroix2%
Dean Henderson2%
Ben Chilwell0%
Cheick Doucouré0%
Jeffrey Schlupp0%
Joel Ward0%
Trevoh Chalobah0%
Matt Turner0%
Chadi Riad0%
Matheus França0%
Caleb Kporha0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Eberechi Eze28%
Ismaïla Sarr17%
Jean-Philippe Mateta15%
Edward Nketiah11%
Ben Chilwell9%
Maxence Lacroix5%
Daniel Muñoz4%
Justin Devenny4%
Daichi Kamada2%
Jefferson Lerma0%
Cheick Doucouré0%
Will Hughes0%
Jeffrey Schlupp0%
Joel Ward0%
Nathaniel Clyne0%
Dean Henderson0%
Trevoh Chalobah0%
Matt Turner0%
Marc Guéhi0%
Chris Richards0%
Tyrick Mitchell0%
Chadi Riad0%
Adam Wharton0%
Matheus França0%
Caleb Kporha0%
Romain Esse0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
COV (27)
€237m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
HUL (27)
€105m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
LEI (22)
€69m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
BOL (22)
€17m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
LIN (24)
€12m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
BR (24)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BRO (19)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
CAR (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
Aston Villa's squad is €31m more valuable than Crystal Palace's (€536m vs €505m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
HUL (7)
€22m
LEI (7)
€20m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
LIN (7)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Aston Villa's attack is €10m less valuable than Crystal Palace's (€220m vs €229m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
WOL (6)
€79m
IPS (7)
€66m
SOU (5)
€53m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
HUL (8)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
FUL (3)
€28m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
LEI (4)
€13m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
MKD (6)
€7m
BLB (7)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
LUT (6)
€4m
BOL (4)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Aston Villa's midfield is €67m more valuable than Crystal Palace's (€160m vs €93m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
WHU (12)
€141m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
WOL (14)
€116m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
SOU (15)
€79m
HUL (12)
€52m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
LEI (11)
€36m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
LUT (10)
€12m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
PV (11)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Aston Villa's defence is €26m less valuable than Crystal Palace's (€156m vs €182m).
England: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
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Liverpool
Arsenal
Manchester City
Chelsea
Newcastle
Nottingham Forest
Brighton
Bournemouth
Brentford
Fulham
Everton
West Ham
Manchester United
Wolves
Tottenham
Leicester
Ipswich
Southampton