Ataka Vilnius enter the cup tie on the back of a defeat to Šiauliai, while the visitors are also coming off a loss, this time to TransINVEST Vilnius. The model therefore rates an away win as the clear favourite, giving Šiauliai a 73% chance of triumph against a home side that has struggled to secure a victory in recent fixtures. The expected total of 4.2 goals signals a high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-3 for the visitors, with an 8.1% probability. Home form shows a 12% chance of a win, 15% for a draw, and 73% for an away win. Šiauliai’s away form against similar-strength opponents averages 1.09 goals scored and 1.91 conceded, suggesting they can outscore the hosts. The model’s suggested picks include Home under 3.5 goals (96.3%), Away +2 handicap (95.3%), Away over 0.5 goals (95.0%), Under 7.5 (93.4%), Over 1.5 (93.0%), Draw or Away (88.0%), Away +1 handicap (88.0%), and Home under 2.5 goals (87.2%). All selections are presented with their exact probabilities and no other outcomes are implied.
Results analysis
The Pythia model’s prediction proved spot on, with the favoured away win materialising as a 1-2 triumph for Šiauliai. The model had identified the match as an “Away win” with a 73% probability, and that call was correct. The team’s recent form, marked by a defeat in their last outing, did not deter the model’s confidence. Every suggested selection also hit: Home under 3.5 goals at 96.3%, Away +2 handicap at 95.3%, Away over 0.5 goals at 95.0%, Under 7.5 at 93.4%, Over 1.5 at 93.0%, Draw or Away at 88.0%, Away +1 handicap at 88.0%, and Home under 2.5 goals at 87.2%. The final score of 1-2 confirmed the model’s comprehensive accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ataka Vilnius win✗ Miss
12.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
15.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai win✓ Hit
72.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ataka Vilnius
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
3.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
3.33
1.00
2.00
1.50
6.00
0.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
3.33
1.00
2.00
1.50
6.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Šiauliai
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.50
2.07
1.57
1.31
1.44
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (23)
1.57
1.74
2.00
1.58
1.09
1.91
vs Weaker (4)
3.00
0.50
3.00
1.00
3.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ataka Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
93.0%
Under 1.5
7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
79.5%
Under 2.5
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
61.2%
Under 3.5
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.9%
No
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-3
8.1%
1-2 ✓
8.1%
0-3
6.6%
0-2
6.5%
1-4
6.1%
1-1
5.9%
2-3
5.0%
2-2
5.0%
Ataka Vilnius goals ↓
Šiauliai goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.0%
3.8%
6.5%
6.6%
4.9%
1
1.2%
5.9%
8.1%
8.1%
6.1%
2
1.1%
3.3%
5.0%
5.0%
3.7%
3
0.5%
1.4%
2.0%
2.0%
1.5%
4
0.1%
0.4%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ataka Vilnius goals (down), columns = Šiauliai goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Panevėžys
3.00
Hegelmann Litauen
2.40
Suduva Marijampole
2.25
Džiugas Telšiai
2.25
Babrungas
2.25
Jonava
2.25
Šiauliai
2.00
Alternatyvus FK
2.00
Kauno Žalgiris
2.00
Tauras
2.00
Minija
2.00
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Vilnius FA
1.50
Cementininkas Akmenė
1.50
Utenis Utena
1.50
Klaipėdos FM
1.50
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.50
Banga
1.50
VGTU Vilkai
1.50
Sirijus Klaipėda
1.50
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
Atmosfera
1.50
Ekranas
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.50
Sveikata
1.50
Nevėžis
1.50
Futboliukas Vilnius
1.01
OG Kaišiadorys
1.01
FK Sumskas
1.01
FK Ketera
1.01
Svyturys
1.01
Radviliškis
1.01
Vilniaus Vytis
1.01
FK Inter Nemencine
1.01
Nadruvis
1.01
Granitas
1.01
FK Jurbarko Imsre
1.01
Kaunas City FA
1.01
Sendvaris
0.00
Viltis Vilnius
0.00
Šilutė
0.00
Širvėna Biržai
0.00
Pempininkai Gargždai
0.00
FK Trakai
0.00
FKS Ukmergė
0.00
Tera
0.00
Venta
0.00
Trivartis Vilnius
0.00
Geležinis Vilkas
0.00
Ataka Vilnius
0.00
Nemunas
0.00
Utenos Utena
0.00
Saned Joniškis
0.00
Dainava
0.00
BFA
0.00
Ataka Vilnius is 2.00 points worse than Šiauliai in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ekranas
9.00
Tauras
6.33
Panevėžys
4.60
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
4.00
Atmosfera
4.00
Cementininkas Akmenė
3.00
VGTU Vilkai
3.00
Sirijus Klaipėda
3.00
Babrungas
3.00
Klaipėdos FM
2.50
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.50
Sveikata
2.50
Hegelmann Litauen
2.40
Alternatyvus FK
2.33
Suduva Marijampole
2.25
Jonava
2.25
Utenis Utena
2.00
Pempininkai Gargždai
2.00
Nevėžis
2.00
Minija
2.00
Džiugas Telšiai
1.75
Futboliukas Vilnius
1.68
OG Kaišiadorys
1.68
FK Sumskas
1.68
FK Ketera
1.68
Svyturys
1.68
Radviliškis
1.68
Vilniaus Vytis
1.68
FK Inter Nemencine
1.68
Nadruvis
1.68
Granitas
1.68
FK Jurbarko Imsre
1.68
Kaunas City FA
1.68
Kauno Žalgiris
1.67
Be1 NFA
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.50
Šiauliai
1.33
Viltis Vilnius
1.00
Širvėna Biržai
1.00
Banga
1.00
FK Trakai
1.00
Venta
1.00
Geležinis Vilkas
1.00
BFA
1.00
Vilnius FA
0.50
Garliava
0.50
Sendvaris
0.00
Šilutė
0.00
FKS Ukmergė
0.00
Tera
0.00
Trivartis Vilnius
0.00
Ataka Vilnius
0.00
Nemunas
0.00
Utenos Utena
0.00
Saned Joniškis
0.00
Dainava
0.00
Ataka Vilnius is 1.33 goals worse than Šiauliai in terms of goals scored per game (0.00 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Panevėžys
0.20
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.50
Banga
0.50
Babrungas
0.50
Be1 NFA
0.50
Hegelmann Litauen
0.60
Minija
0.67
Suduva Marijampole
0.75
Šilutė
1.00
Nemunas
1.00
Atmosfera
1.00
Ekranas
1.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.00
Džiugas Telšiai
1.25
Šiauliai
1.33
Kauno Žalgiris
1.33
Tauras
1.33
Cementininkas Akmenė
1.50
Garliava
1.50
Sveikata
1.50
Jonava
1.75
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
Vilnius FA
2.00
Klaipėdos FM
2.00
FK Trakai
2.00
Utenos Utena
2.00
Nevėžis
2.00
Sirijus Klaipėda
2.50
Alternatyvus FK
2.67
Viltis Vilnius
3.00
Širvėna Biržai
3.00
Utenis Utena
3.00
Ataka Vilnius
3.00
BFA
3.00
Futboliukas Vilnius
3.05
OG Kaišiadorys
3.05
FK Sumskas
3.05
FK Ketera
3.05
Svyturys
3.05
Radviliškis
3.05
Vilniaus Vytis
3.05
FK Inter Nemencine
3.05
Nadruvis
3.05
Granitas
3.05
FK Jurbarko Imsre
3.05
Kaunas City FA
3.05
VGTU Vilkai
3.50
Pempininkai Gargždai
4.00
FKS Ukmergė
4.00
Geležinis Vilkas
5.00
Venta
6.00
Saned Joniškis
6.00
Dainava
6.00
Tera
8.00
Sendvaris
13.00
Trivartis Vilnius
13.00
Ataka Vilnius is 1.67 goals worse than Šiauliai in terms of goals conceded per game (3.00 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ataka Vilnius or Draw✗ Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied -
12%
15%
73%
covers Ataka Vilnius + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ataka Vilnius or Šiauliai✓ Hit
84.6%
Avg Implied -
12%
15%
73%
covers Ataka Vilnius + Šiauliai
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Šiauliai✓ Hit
88.0%
Avg Implied -
12%
15%
73%
covers Draw + Šiauliai
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ataka Vilnius over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
70.9%
Under
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ataka Vilnius over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
34.9%
Under
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ataka Vilnius over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.8%
Under
87.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ataka Vilnius over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
95.0%
Under
5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
80.2%
Under
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
57.8%
Under
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
35.4%
Under
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ataka Vilnius, so a minus line means Ataka Vilnius give that many goals of a start and Šiauliai receive them. At -1, Ataka Vilnius must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ataka Vilnius win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ataka Vilnius)Actual: Šiauliai
Ataka Vilnius -2
1.4%
Draw -2
3.3%
Šiauliai +2
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ataka Vilnius)Actual: Šiauliai
Ataka Vilnius -1
4.7%
Draw -1
7.3%
Šiauliai +1
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ataka Vilnius)Actual: Draw
Ataka Vilnius +1
27.4%
Draw +1
18.7%
Šiauliai -1
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ataka Vilnius)Actual: Ataka Vilnius
Ataka Vilnius +2
46.1%
Draw +2
19.4%
Šiauliai -2
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ataka Vilnius
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
0.33
1.00
0.50
3.00
0.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
1.00
0.50
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Šiauliai
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.53
0.86
0.50
0.62
0.56
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.52
0.83
0.42
0.45
0.64
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Ataka Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ataka Vilnius over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ataka Vilnius over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ataka Vilnius over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ataka Vilnius
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Šiauliai
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.97
1.21
1.07
0.69
0.88
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.91
1.22
1.17
1.17
0.64
1.27
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Ataka Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ataka Vilnius over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ataka Vilnius over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ataka Vilnius over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 3.5 goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
88.0%
-
-
-
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Away +1 handicap
88.0%
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✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
87.2%
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✓ Hit
Under 6.5
86.3%
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Home or Away
84.6%
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✓ Hit
Away over 1.5 goals
80.2%
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✓ Hit
Over 2.5
79.5%
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Under 5.5
74.7%
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Away win
72.6%
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Home over 0.5 goals
70.9%
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✓ Hit
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Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →