Atert Bissen is strongly favoured to win at home against Progres Niederkorn, with a 58% chance of victory. The match is expected to be a low-scoring affair, with an average of 2.6 goals expected. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 12.1%.
Atert Bissen has been in excellent form at home, scoring an average of 2.47 goals and conceding just 0.6 goals per match against weaker opponents. Progres Niederkorn, on the other hand, has struggled away from home, scoring an average of 0 goals and conceding 2 goals per match against stronger opponents.
The model suggests two selections: Over 1.5 with a 74.7% probability, and Under 3.5 with a 73.2% probability. Atert Bissen has a 58% chance of winning, a 25% chance of drawing, and a 17% chance of losing.
Results analysis
Atert Bissen's 0-4 loss to Progres Niederkorn extends their recent run of poor form. The away team, on a 3-game winning streak, pulled off a major upset, as the home side's recent struggles continued. The model's selection, a Home win, was wrong, as the pre-match favourite failed to come through. The model's call was incorrect, with the probability of a Home win at 58%. The model's selection of Home win was the pre-match favourite, but it did not materialise. The model's selection of Home win had a probability of 58%. The model's selection of Over 1.5 hit, with a probability of 74.7%, while the model's selection of Under 3.5 missed, with a probability of 73.2%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Atert Bissen win✗ Miss
57.6%
Avg Implied 48.2% · @ 1.88
Edge
+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.91
Dafabet
1.91
888Sport
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
Unibet
1.87
Draw✗ Miss
25.4%
Avg Implied 27.0% · @ 3.35
Edge
-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.50
Dafabet
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Betano
3.40
Pinnacle
3.38
Progres Niederkorn win✓ Hit
17.0%
Avg Implied 24.8% · @ 3.65
Edge
-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.85
1xBet
3.72
Pinnacle
3.69
Marathonbet
3.65
10Bet
3.65
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Atert Bissen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.60
0.77
2.33
0.67
2.87
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
2.06
0.88
1.90
0.50
2.33
1.50
vs Weaker (14)
3.21
0.64
3.20
1.00
3.22
0.44
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Progres Niederkorn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Progres Niederkorn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.43
1.53
1.60
1.33
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.17
1.50
1.56
1.78
0.78
1.22
vs Weaker (12)
1.83
1.33
1.50
1.33
2.17
1.33
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Atert Bissen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.7%
@ 1.23+0.5%
Under 1.5
25.3%
@ 3.54-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.25
888Sport
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Under
10Bet
3.65
888Sport
3.60
1xBet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Unibet
3.45
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.6%
@ 1.77-3.2%
Under 2.5
51.4%
@ 1.91+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.83
888Sport
1.80
Marathonbet
1.78
1xBet
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Under
Pinnacle
1.97
10Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.91
Betano
1.91
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
26.8%
@ 2.90-4.6%
Under 3.5
73.2%
@ 1.33+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.95
888Sport
2.90
Marathonbet
2.88
Unibet
2.88
1xBet
2.88
Under
10Bet
1.36
888Sport
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Unibet
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.8%
@ 1.66-6.2%
No
51.2%
@ 2.03+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.67
888Sport
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.66
10Bet
1.65
No
888Sport
2.05
William Hil
2.05
10Bet
2.05
1xBet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.01
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%@ 6.00+5.8%
1-0
11.7%@ 7.10+6.4%
2-0
11.3%@ 8.60+6.9%
2-1
9.7%@ 7.40+4.6%
0-0
8.4%@ 10.25+4.7%
3-0
6.6%@ 13.80+3.9%
3-1
5.7%@ 12.80+2.7%
0-1
5.2%@ 10.25+1.5%
Atert Bissen goals ↓
Progres Niederkorn goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.4%
5.2%
2.7%
0.8%
0.2%
1
12%
12%
4.7%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
9.7%
4.2%
1.2%
0.3%
3
6.6%
5.7%
2.4%
0.7%
0.2%
4
2.9%
2.5%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Atert Bissen goals (down), columns = Progres Niederkorn goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
UNA Strassen
3.00
US Mondorf-les-bains
3.00
FC Differdange 03
2.40
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.00
Résidence Walferdange
1.80
Atert Bissen
1.80
Progres Niederkorn
1.80
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.80
US Rumelange
1.20
F91 Dudelange
1.20
US Hostert
1.20
Victoria Rosport
0.80
Wiltz
0.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
0.60
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.20
Swift Hesperange
0.00
Atert Bissen and Progres Niederkorn are level in average points per game (both 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.60
UN Kaerjeng 97
2.60
US Mondorf-les-bains
2.40
Résidence Walferdange
2.20
US Hostert
2.20
FC Differdange 03
2.20
Victoria Rosport
2.00
Wiltz
2.00
UNA Strassen
2.00
US Rumelange
1.60
Progres Niederkorn
1.60
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.40
Atert Bissen
1.40
F91 Dudelange
1.00
Swift Hesperange
0.40
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.40
Atert Bissen is 0.20 goals worse than Progres Niederkorn in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 1.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
UNA Strassen
0.20
Progres Niederkorn
0.80
FC Differdange 03
0.80
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.20
Résidence Walferdange
1.20
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.20
Atert Bissen
1.40
F91 Dudelange
1.60
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
2.00
US Hostert
2.00
Wiltz
2.20
Victoria Rosport
2.40
US Rumelange
2.40
Etzella Ettelbruck
2.60
Swift Hesperange
4.20
Atert Bissen is 0.60 goals worse than Progres Niederkorn in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 0.80).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Atert Bissen
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Progres Niederkorn
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Atert Bissen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (38)
8.6
9.0
8.3
0.9
0.8
0.9
26.0
29.0
24.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
9.2
12.0
8.3
1.4
1.0
1.8
24.5
26.0
24.0
vs Weaker (17)
6.0
6.0
-
0.2
0.6
0.0
32.0
32.0
-
% over line
40%
50%
33%
13%
11%
15%
80%
100%
67%
% under line
60%
50%
67%
87%
89%
85%
20%
0%
33%
This opponent (Progres Niederkorn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Progres Niederkorn
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.5
9.0
6.0
0.5
0.3
0.6
22.2
22.5
22.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (31)
7.7
11.0
6.0
0.7
0.4
1.0
22.0
22.0
22.0
vs Weaker (19)
7.0
7.0
-
0.1
0.2
0.0
23.0
23.0
-
% over line
25%
50%
0%
8%
4%
11%
75%
100%
50%
% under line
75%
50%
100%
92%
96%
89%
25%
0%
50%
This opponent (Atert Bissen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
US Mondorf-les-bains
11.0
Victoria Rosport
9.8
UN Kaerjeng 97
9.2
Progres Niederkorn
9.1
F91 Dudelange
8.9
AS Jeunesse Esch
8.8
FC Differdange 03
8.7
Atert Bissen
8.6
US Hostert
8.4
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
8.0
Swift Hesperange
7.9
UNA Strassen
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Differdange 03
7.7
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
7.0
Atert Bissen
6.6
UN Kaerjeng 97
6.6
US Mondorf-les-bains
6.2
Victoria Rosport
6.2
AS Jeunesse Esch
6.2
US Hostert
6.2
Swift Hesperange
6.2
Progres Niederkorn
6.1
F91 Dudelange
6.0
UNA Strassen
5.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Differdange 03
35.0
Swift Hesperange
30.4
AS Jeunesse Esch
29.0
US Hostert
29.0
UNA Strassen
28.2
UN Kaerjeng 97
27.0
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
26.5
Atert Bissen
26.0
US Mondorf-les-bains
25.3
Victoria Rosport
25.0
Progres Niederkorn
23.6
F91 Dudelange
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
31.6%
Under 9.5
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
89.7%
Under 3.5
10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
86.6%
Under 21.5
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Atert Bissen or Draw✗ Miss
83.0%
Avg Implied -
58%
25%
17%
covers Atert Bissen + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Atert Bissen or Progres Niederkorn✓ Hit
74.6%
Avg Implied -
58%
25%
17%
covers Atert Bissen + Progres Niederkorn
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Progres Niederkorn✓ Hit
42.4%
Avg Implied -
58%
25%
17%
covers Draw + Progres Niederkorn
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Atert Bissen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.23
0.73
0.07
1.60
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.88
0.31
0.60
0.10
1.33
0.67
vs Weaker (14)
1.50
0.14
1.00
0.00
1.78
0.22
Clean sheet %
80% (+54pp vs league)
This opponent (Progres Niederkorn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Progres Niederkorn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.53
0.53
0.67
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.39
0.67
0.56
0.33
0.22
vs Weaker (12)
0.75
0.67
0.33
0.50
1.17
0.83
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Atert Bissen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Atert Bissen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atert Bissen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atert Bissen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Atert Bissen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.53
1.60
0.60
1.27
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.19
0.56
1.30
0.40
1.00
0.83
vs Weaker (14)
1.71
0.50
2.20
1.00
1.44
0.22
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Progres Niederkorn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Progres Niederkorn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.93
1.00
1.07
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.67
1.11
0.89
1.22
0.44
1.00
vs Weaker (12)
1.08
0.67
1.17
0.83
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Atert Bissen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Atert Bissen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atert Bissen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atert Bissen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 4.5 cards
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.7%
1.23
10Bet
1.25
888Sport
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.2%
1.33
10Bet
1.36
888Sport
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Unibet
1.30
+4.6%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (19)
€3m
AB (19)
€3m
UK9 (18)
€2m
UM (22)
€2m
FD0 (16)
€2m
PN (19)
€2m
VR (15)
€2m
RFU (15)
€1m
AJE (17)
€1m
FD (16)
€1m
UH (16)
€1m
SH (12)
€1m
RW (3)
€0m
EE (6)
€0m
WIL (2)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
Atert Bissen and Progres Niederkorn have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UK9 (5)
€1m
FD0 (6)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
PN (8)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
AB (4)
€1m
UM (5)
€0m
UH (6)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
FD (6)
€0m
RW (1)
€0m
SH (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (3)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
Atert Bissen and Progres Niederkorn have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (5)
€1m
UM (6)
€1m
AB (5)
€1m
UK9 (5)
€0m
FD (4)
€0m
RFU (3)
€0m
VR (4)
€0m
UH (3)
€0m
FD0 (3)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
SH (3)
€0m
EE (2)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
RW (0)
€0m
PN (0)
€0m
WIL (0)
€0m
Atert Bissen and Progres Niederkorn have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AB (10)
€1m
US (9)
€1m
PN (11)
€1m
UM (11)
€1m
FD0 (7)
€1m
AJE (9)
€1m
UK9 (8)
€1m
VR (6)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
UH (7)
€0m
SH (7)
€0m
RW (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (1)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
Atert Bissen and Progres Niederkorn have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Luxembourg: National Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Luxembourg: National Division stats & trends →
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UNA Strassen
US Mondorf-les-bains
FC Differdange 03
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Résidence Walferdange
UN Kaerjeng 97
US Hostert
F91 Dudelange
US Rumelange
Wiltz
Victoria Rosport
AS Jeunesse Esch
Etzella Ettelbruck
Swift Hesperange