Athletic Club vs Levante Result & Analysis

Athletic Club’s defensive record at home shows a modest 0.6 goals conceded, while Levante’s away form has them giving up 1.18, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair. The model favours a home win with a 53% probability, a draw 30%, and an away win 17%. The expected total is 2.1 goals, with the most likely total of two goals at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-0 for Athletic Club, carrying a 16% chance. Athletic’s home scoring average is 0.8 against similar opponents, whereas Levante’s away scoring sits at 0.82 with a higher concession rate. The suggested selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 94.6%, Over 2.5 cards at 90.7%, Over 21.5 fouls at 88.2%, Under 3.5 at 83.6%, Over 3.5 cards at 78.9%, and Over 23.5 fouls at 78.2%. The model’s pick remains a home victory, with the match expected to be a narrow, defensively dominated contest.

The pre-match favourite, Athletic Club, was expected to win with a 53% probability, but the match ended 1-3 in favour of Levante, so the model’s call was wrong. The win extended Athletic’s recent run, yet Levante’s form also carried them through a win after a 5-2 triumph over Real Betis. The model’s other selections proved largely accurate: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 94.6%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 90.7%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 88.2%, Over 3.5 cards hit at 78.9%, and Over 23.5 fouls hit at 78.2%. Only the Under 3.5 selection missed at 83.6%. The final score of 1-3 confirmed an unexpected away victory.