This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rayo Vallecano
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
2.10
1.47
1.60
1.40
2.60
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
4.14
0.75
3.00
1.67
5.67
vs Similar (23)
1.52
1.48
1.73
1.09
1.33
1.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Athletic Club) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
89.1%
Under 1.5
10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
71.4%
Under 2.5
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
50.5%
Under 3.5
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
65.2%
No
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.3%
1-1
8.2%
3-1
7.7%
2-0
7.6%
3-0
6.3%
2-2
5.7%
1-0 ✓
5.4%
4-1
4.8%
Athletic Club goals ↓
Rayo Vallecano goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.2%
2.3%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
1
5.4%
8.2%
4.6%
1.8%
0.6%
2
7.6%
9.3%
5.7%
2.3%
0.7%
3
6.3%
7.7%
4.7%
1.9%
0.6%
4
3.9%
4.8%
2.9%
1.2%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Athletic Club goals (down), columns = Rayo Vallecano goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.39
Real Madrid
2.37
Atletico Madrid
2.32
Villarreal
1.68
Athletic Club
1.63
Celta Vigo
1.58
Sevilla
1.37
Real Sociedad
1.26
Malaga
1.26
Real Betis
1.18
Las Palmas
1.16
Valencia
1.16
Espanyol
1.13
Eibar
1.13
Deportivo La Coruna
1.11
Sporting Gijon
1.03
Granada CF
1.03
Rayo Vallecano
1.00
Getafe
0.95
Levante
0.84
Athletic Club is 0.63 points better than Rayo Vallecano in terms of average points per game (1.63 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.95
Real Madrid
2.89
Atletico Madrid
1.66
Athletic Club
1.53
Rayo Vallecano
1.37
Celta Vigo
1.34
Sevilla
1.34
Eibar
1.29
Granada CF
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Real Sociedad
1.18
Deportivo La Coruna
1.18
Las Palmas
1.18
Villarreal
1.16
Sporting Gijon
1.05
Espanyol
1.05
Malaga
1.00
Getafe
0.97
Levante
0.97
Real Betis
0.89
Athletic Club is 0.16 goals better than Rayo Vallecano in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.37).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Atletico Madrid
0.47
Barcelona
0.76
Real Madrid
0.89
Malaga
0.92
Villarreal
0.92
Athletic Club
1.18
Real Sociedad
1.26
Valencia
1.26
Sevilla
1.32
Real Betis
1.37
Las Palmas
1.39
Celta Vigo
1.55
Deportivo La Coruna
1.61
Eibar
1.61
Sporting Gijon
1.63
Getafe
1.76
Granada CF
1.82
Levante
1.84
Rayo Vallecano
1.92
Espanyol
1.95
Athletic Club is 0.74 goals better than Rayo Vallecano in terms of goals conceded per game (1.18 vs 1.92).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Athletic Club
For 4.9 · Against 4.3 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.9 · Against 12.5 · Total 26.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rayo Vallecano
For 6.2 · Against 6.3 · Total 12.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.7 · Against 2.3 · Total 6.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 13.5 · Total 27.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Athletic Club
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (31)
10.3
10.7
9.9
5.7
6.1
5.3
27.0
29.1
25.1
vs Stronger (5)
8.8
10.0
8.0
4.8
6.5
3.7
20.8
27.0
16.7
vs Similar (13)
11.2
11.3
11.0
6.3
6.8
5.9
27.8
32.0
24.3
vs Weaker (13)
9.9
10.3
9.5
5.4
5.3
5.5
28.6
27.3
30.2
% over line
52%
60%
44%
87%
93%
81%
81%
80%
81%
% under line
48%
40%
56%
13%
7%
19%
19%
20%
19%
This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rayo Vallecano
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (31)
11.1
10.3
11.9
5.5
5.7
5.4
28.1
28.8
27.4
vs Stronger (7)
11.6
10.2
13.3
4.9
5.2
4.3
26.6
27.2
25.7
vs Similar (24)
10.9
10.3
11.5
5.8
5.8
5.7
28.5
29.2
27.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
58%
50%
67%
90%
94%
87%
87%
94%
80%
% under line
42%
50%
33%
10%
6%
13%
13%
6%
20%
This opponent (Athletic Club) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sevilla
12.4
Valencia
11.4
Rayo Vallecano
11.1
Real Madrid
11.0
Real Sociedad
10.6
Villarreal
10.4
Athletic Club
10.3
Getafe
10.2
Deportivo La Coruna
10.2
Real Betis
10.1
Espanyol
10.1
Granada CF
9.9
Celta Vigo
9.9
Malaga
9.9
Eibar
9.6
Barcelona
9.6
Levante
9.4
Atletico Madrid
9.1
Las Palmas
8.9
Sporting Gijon
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Granada CF
6.6
Espanyol
6.2
Malaga
6.2
Real Sociedad
6.2
Real Betis
6.1
Levante
6.0
Celta Vigo
6.0
Sevilla
5.9
Athletic Club
5.7
Valencia
5.6
Villarreal
5.6
Eibar
5.6
Rayo Vallecano
5.5
Getafe
5.5
Sporting Gijon
5.5
Las Palmas
5.5
Barcelona
5.0
Real Madrid
5.0
Atletico Madrid
4.9
Deportivo La Coruna
4.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Valencia
32.6
Espanyol
31.4
Granada CF
29.8
Levante
28.8
Las Palmas
28.6
Real Betis
28.3
Celta Vigo
28.1
Malaga
28.1
Rayo Vallecano
28.1
Sevilla
28.1
Real Sociedad
28.1
Eibar
27.6
Athletic Club
27.0
Villarreal
26.9
Sporting Gijon
26.5
Getafe
26.0
Atletico Madrid
25.6
Barcelona
25.5
Real Madrid
25.0
Deportivo La Coruna
22.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
66.9%
Under 9.5
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
82.5%
Under 3.5
17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
88.3%
Under 21.5
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Athletic Club
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.47
1.07
0.29
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.75
0.00
1.00
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.31
0.67
0.33
0.43
0.29
vs Weaker (13)
1.23
0.23
1.57
0.14
0.83
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rayo Vallecano
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.93
0.93
0.73
0.67
1.13
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.57
0.25
1.25
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.74
1.18
0.55
0.50
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Athletic Club) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Athletic Club over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athletic Club over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athletic Club over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Athletic Club
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.83
1.00
0.64
0.62
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.75
1.00
1.00
0.33
2.00
vs Similar (13)
0.92
0.62
1.00
0.33
0.86
0.86
vs Weaker (13)
0.77
0.77
1.00
0.86
0.50
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rayo Vallecano
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.17
0.53
0.87
0.73
1.47
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
2.57
0.50
1.75
0.33
3.67
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.74
0.55
0.55
0.83
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Athletic Club) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Athletic Club over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athletic Club over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athletic Club over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Athletic Club · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Álex Berenguer33%
Aymeric Laporte0%
Unai Simón0%
Gorka Guruzeta0%
Iñaki Williams0%
Oihan Sancet0%
Nico Williams0%
Beñat Gerenabarrena0%
Peio Canales0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gorka Guruzeta67%
Beñat Gerenabarrena33%
Aymeric Laporte0%
Álex Berenguer0%
Unai Simón0%
Iñaki Williams0%
Oihan Sancet0%
Nico Williams0%
Peio Canales0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Iñaki Williams33%
Aymeric Laporte0%
Álex Berenguer0%
Unai Simón0%
Gorka Guruzeta0%
Oihan Sancet0%
Nico Williams0%
Beñat Gerenabarrena0%
Peio Canales0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Oihan Sancet33%
Aymeric Laporte0%
Álex Berenguer0%
Unai Simón0%
Gorka Guruzeta0%
Iñaki Williams0%
Nico Williams0%
Beñat Gerenabarrena0%
Peio Canales0%
Rayo Vallecano · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sergio Camello67%
Álvaro García33%
Florian Lejeune0%
Pathé Ismaël Ciss0%
Óscar Valentín0%
Unai López0%
Randy Nteka0%
Jorge de Frutos0%
Fran Pérez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sergio Camello33%
Unai López33%
Álvaro García33%
Fran Pérez33%
Florian Lejeune0%
Pathé Ismaël Ciss0%
Óscar Valentín0%
Randy Nteka0%
Jorge de Frutos0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Unai López33%
Álvaro García33%
Jorge de Frutos33%
Sergio Camello0%
Florian Lejeune0%
Pathé Ismaël Ciss0%
Óscar Valentín0%
Randy Nteka0%
Fran Pérez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sergio Camello33%
Florian Lejeune33%
Pathé Ismaël Ciss0%
Óscar Valentín0%
Unai López0%
Álvaro García0%
Randy Nteka0%
Jorge de Frutos0%
Fran Pérez0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
RV (23)
€76m
MAL (27)
€41m
LP (27)
€30m
SG (23)
€28m
GC (18)
€17m
EIB (24)
€15m
Athletic Club's squad is €165m more valuable than Rayo Vallecano's (€241m vs €76m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
SG (8)
€14m
LP (12)
€14m
EIB (8)
€7m
GC (5)
€6m
Athletic Club's attack is €76m more valuable than Rayo Vallecano's (€106m vs €30m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€6m
SG (5)
€5m
EIB (6)
€3m
GC (3)
€3m
LP (5)
€3m
Athletic Club's midfield is €48m more valuable than Rayo Vallecano's (€57m vs €9m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
GET (13)
€26m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
LP (10)
€13m
MAL (11)
€9m
SG (10)
€9m
GC (10)
€9m
EIB (10)
€5m
Athletic Club's defence is €41m more valuable than Rayo Vallecano's (€77m vs €36m).
Spain: La Liga 2015/16 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
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Barcelona
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Villarreal
Celta Vigo
Sevilla
Malaga
Real Sociedad
Real Betis
Valencia
Las Palmas
Eibar
Espanyol
Deportivo La Coruna
Sporting Gijon
Granada CF
Getafe
Levante