This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Madrid
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.60
1.03
2.60
1.07
2.60
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
2.00
0.50
-
-
2.00
0.50
vs Weaker (28)
2.64
1.07
2.60
1.07
2.69
1.08
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Athletic Club) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.5%
Under 1.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.6%
Under 2.5
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.7%
Under 3.5
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.5%
No
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
0-1
10.4%
1-2 ✓
9.6%
0-2
9.5%
0-0
8.2%
1-0
5.9%
2-1
5.9%
1-3
5.3%
Athletic Club goals ↓
Real Madrid goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
10%
9.5%
5.2%
2.2%
1
5.9%
13%
9.6%
5.3%
2.2%
2
3.6%
5.9%
4.8%
2.7%
1.1%
3
1.2%
2.0%
1.6%
0.9%
0.4%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Athletic Club goals (down), columns = Real Madrid goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Real Madrid
2.45
Barcelona
2.37
Atletico Madrid
2.05
Sevilla
1.89
Villarreal
1.76
Real Sociedad
1.68
Athletic Club
1.66
Espanyol
1.47
Alaves
1.45
Eibar
1.42
Malaga
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Celta Vigo
1.18
Las Palmas
1.03
Real Betis
1.03
Deportivo La Coruna
0.95
Leganes
0.92
Sporting Gijon
0.82
Osasuna
0.58
Granada CF
0.53
Athletic Club is 0.79 points worse than Real Madrid in terms of average points per game (1.66 vs 2.45).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
3.05
Real Madrid
2.79
Atletico Madrid
1.84
Sevilla
1.82
Real Sociedad
1.55
Eibar
1.47
Villarreal
1.47
Valencia
1.47
Celta Vigo
1.39
Las Palmas
1.39
Athletic Club
1.39
Malaga
1.29
Espanyol
1.29
Deportivo La Coruna
1.13
Sporting Gijon
1.11
Alaves
1.08
Real Betis
1.08
Osasuna
1.05
Leganes
0.95
Granada CF
0.79
Athletic Club is 1.39 goals worse than Real Madrid in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 2.79).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Atletico Madrid
0.71
Villarreal
0.87
Barcelona
0.97
Real Madrid
1.08
Alaves
1.13
Athletic Club
1.13
Sevilla
1.29
Espanyol
1.32
Eibar
1.34
Real Sociedad
1.39
Malaga
1.45
Leganes
1.45
Deportivo La Coruna
1.61
Real Betis
1.68
Valencia
1.71
Celta Vigo
1.82
Sporting Gijon
1.89
Las Palmas
1.95
Granada CF
2.16
Osasuna
2.47
Athletic Club is 0.05 goals worse than Real Madrid in terms of goals conceded per game (1.13 vs 1.08).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Athletic Club
For 4.2 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 3.1 · Total 5.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 15.5 · Total 28.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Real Madrid
For 5.6 · Against 3.8 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.9 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 14.4 · Total 25.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Athletic Club
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.3
9.4
5.5
5.7
5.2
27.2
27.9
26.4
vs Stronger (7)
8.7
8.7
8.8
4.6
4.7
4.5
21.7
23.0
20.8
vs Similar (22)
10.7
11.0
10.3
5.5
6.1
4.9
27.7
29.8
25.3
vs Weaker (21)
8.2
7.7
8.7
5.7
5.5
5.9
28.4
27.3
29.7
% over line
50%
50%
50%
76%
81%
71%
78%
77%
79%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
24%
19%
29%
22%
23%
21%
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Madrid
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
11.2
10.0
5.1
5.0
5.3
25.5
24.9
26.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
10.0
7.0
11.0
6.2
7.0
6.0
32.5
28.0
34.0
vs Weaker (46)
10.6
11.3
9.8
5.0
4.9
5.2
24.8
24.8
25.0
% over line
66%
69%
62%
84%
81%
88%
72%
69%
75%
% under line
34%
31%
38%
16%
19%
12%
28%
31%
25%
This opponent (Athletic Club) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Deportivo La Coruna
11.1
Sevilla
10.8
Real Madrid
10.6
Real Sociedad
10.5
Valencia
10.3
Atletico Madrid
10.2
Malaga
10.2
Real Betis
10.2
Alaves
10.1
Granada CF
10.1
Villarreal
9.8
Espanyol
9.5
Eibar
9.4
Athletic Club
9.4
Barcelona
9.2
Sporting Gijon
9.2
Las Palmas
9.2
Celta Vigo
8.9
Osasuna
8.7
Leganes
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Alaves
6.1
Malaga
6.1
Granada CF
5.9
Sevilla
5.8
Real Betis
5.8
Las Palmas
5.6
Celta Vigo
5.5
Real Sociedad
5.5
Athletic Club
5.5
Leganes
5.4
Valencia
5.3
Espanyol
5.3
Sporting Gijon
5.2
Real Madrid
5.1
Barcelona
5.1
Eibar
4.9
Osasuna
4.9
Villarreal
4.8
Atletico Madrid
4.5
Deportivo La Coruna
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Leganes
31.3
Real Betis
30.5
Valencia
30.1
Sevilla
28.9
Real Sociedad
28.9
Espanyol
28.7
Las Palmas
28.2
Alaves
28.0
Sporting Gijon
28.0
Malaga
27.9
Celta Vigo
27.4
Granada CF
27.4
Athletic Club
27.2
Osasuna
26.7
Barcelona
26.4
Atletico Madrid
26.0
Villarreal
25.9
Eibar
25.6
Real Madrid
25.5
Deportivo La Coruna
24.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
45.8%
Under 9.5
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
78.9%
Under 3.5
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
87.1%
Under 21.5
12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Athletic Club
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.69
0.56
0.36
0.64
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.62
0.88
0.50
0.20
0.80
vs Weaker (13)
0.46
0.38
0.50
0.50
0.43
0.29
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Madrid
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.43
1.40
0.40
1.27
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.50
0.00
-
-
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (28)
1.39
0.46
1.40
0.40
1.38
0.54
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Athletic Club) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Athletic Club over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athletic Club over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athletic Club over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Athletic Club
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
1.19
0.38
0.29
0.57
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.31
1.25
0.50
0.20
0.00
vs Weaker (13)
0.85
0.54
1.33
0.17
0.43
0.86
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Madrid
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.60
1.20
0.67
1.33
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
1.50
0.50
-
-
1.50
0.50
vs Weaker (28)
1.25
0.61
1.20
0.67
1.31
0.54
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Athletic Club) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Athletic Club over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athletic Club over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athletic Club over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Athletic Club · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Álex Berenguer33%
Aymeric Laporte0%
Unai Simón0%
Gorka Guruzeta0%
Iñaki Williams0%
Oihan Sancet0%
Nico Williams0%
Beñat Gerenabarrena0%
Peio Canales0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gorka Guruzeta67%
Beñat Gerenabarrena33%
Aymeric Laporte0%
Álex Berenguer0%
Unai Simón0%
Iñaki Williams0%
Oihan Sancet0%
Nico Williams0%
Peio Canales0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Iñaki Williams33%
Aymeric Laporte0%
Álex Berenguer0%
Unai Simón0%
Gorka Guruzeta0%
Oihan Sancet0%
Nico Williams0%
Beñat Gerenabarrena0%
Peio Canales0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Oihan Sancet33%
Aymeric Laporte0%
Álex Berenguer0%
Unai Simón0%
Gorka Guruzeta0%
Iñaki Williams0%
Nico Williams0%
Beñat Gerenabarrena0%
Peio Canales0%
Real Madrid · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kylian Mbappé67%
Jude Bellingham67%
Vinícius Júnior33%
Arda Güler33%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Federico Valverde0%
Dean Huijsen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vinícius Júnior33%
Kylian Mbappé0%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Federico Valverde0%
Jude Bellingham0%
Arda Güler0%
Dean Huijsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vinícius Júnior67%
Federico Valverde33%
Jude Bellingham33%
Arda Güler33%
Kylian Mbappé0%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Dean Huijsen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kylian Mbappé100%
Vinícius Júnior33%
Jude Bellingham33%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Federico Valverde0%
Arda Güler0%
Dean Huijsen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
DLC (29)
€84m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
LEG (26)
€30m
LP (27)
€30m
SG (23)
€28m
GC (18)
€17m
EIB (24)
€15m
Athletic Club's squad is €1216m less valuable than Real Madrid's (€241m vs €1456m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
SG (8)
€14m
LP (12)
€14m
LEG (11)
€14m
EIB (8)
€7m
GC (5)
€6m
Athletic Club's attack is €736m less valuable than Real Madrid's (€106m vs €842m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
LEG (5)
€8m
MAL (5)
€6m
SG (5)
€5m
EIB (6)
€3m
GC (3)
€3m
LP (5)
€3m
Athletic Club's midfield is €180m less valuable than Real Madrid's (€57m vs €238m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
OSA (10)
€33m
DLC (13)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
LP (10)
€13m
MAL (11)
€9m
SG (10)
€9m
GC (10)
€9m
LEG (10)
€8m
EIB (10)
€5m
Athletic Club's defence is €300m less valuable than Real Madrid's (€77m vs €377m).
Spain: La Liga 2016/17 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
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Barcelona
Atletico Madrid
Sevilla
Villarreal
Real Sociedad
Espanyol
Alaves
Eibar
Malaga
Valencia
Celta Vigo
Las Palmas
Real Betis
Deportivo La Coruna
Leganes
Sporting Gijon
Osasuna
Granada CF