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Atlètic Amèrica vs Carroi Result & Analysis

Date: 30/03/2025
Time: 10:00
Final 3-0
Atlètic Amèrica
Atlètic Amèrica
Vs
22%
22%
56%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Carroi
Carroi
Andorra: 2a Divisió
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Atlético América host Carroi in the Andorra: 2a Divisió league. Carroi's recent form, coming off a win, suggests they may be in good spirits, but they have also struggled with inconsistency. Atlético América, on the other hand, have been unbeaten in their last 5 matches, drawing with UE Santa Coloma II in their last encounter.

The model predicts a 56% chance of an away win, making it the favoured match result. The expected total goals is 3.7, indicating a high-scoring match. The single most likely score is 1-2, with a probability of 9.2%.

Atlético América's home form sees them scoring an average of 1 goal and conceding 2.8, while Carroi's away form sees them scoring 1.57 goals and conceding 1.57 against similar opponents. The model's selection for "Over 2.5" goals has a probability of 70.8%.

The model's selections are "Over 1.5" (88.8%), "Over 2.5" (70.8%), and "Away win" (56%). The home win percentage is 22%, the draw percentage is 22%, and the away win percentage is 56%.

Results analysis

In a stunning upset, Atlético Américana secured a 3-0 victory over Carroi, defying expectations and sending shockwaves through the Andorra: 2a Divisió. The win extends their unbeaten run, a testament to their growing form. The pre-match favourite, a Carroi away win, was incorrectly predicted by the Pythia model, which assigned a 56% probability to this outcome. However, the model's selection ultimately MISSED. The model's selection, an Away win, had a 56% probability, but the actual result was a Home win. The suggested picks, Over 1.5 and Over 2.5, both HIT with probabilities of 88.8% and 70.8% respectively, accurately predicting the high-scoring nature of the match.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Atlètic Amèrica win✓ Hit
22.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Carroi win✗ Miss
56.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Atlètic AmèricaAtlètic Amèrica

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L50W41W11D02L24L13L30W11D41WA·RAN05/10A·CIT19/10A·UE 09/11H·RAN24/11H·UE 18/01A·CIT26/01H·CIT02/02H·UE 09/02A·CAR19/02A·RAN22/02
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.332.771.212.931.442.62
vs Stronger (7)0.574.570.675.000.504.25
vs Similar (2)0.003.500.001.000.006.00
vs Weaker (21)1.712.101.502.501.911.73
Clean sheet %7% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Carroi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

CarroiCarroi

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-822D10W31W21W41W40W80W31W20W11DA·UE 20/10A·CIT27/10H·RAN10/11A·CIT01/12H·RAN19/01A·UE 25/01A·RAN01/02H·CIT08/02H·UE 16/02H·ATL19/02
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.971.072.071.751.88
vs Stronger (13)0.772.770.503.001.002.57
vs Similar (7)1.431.570.671.332.001.75
vs Weaker (10)2.301.202.001.402.601.00
Clean sheet %20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Atlètic Amèrica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%3%08%118%221%319%414%516%6+
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.8%
Under 1.5
11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
70.8%
Under 2.5
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
49.8%
Under 3.5
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
68.3%
No
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.2%
1-1
9.0%
1-3
6.9%
0-2
6.6%
2-2
6.4%
2-1
5.7%
0-1
5.0%
0-3
5.0%
Atlètic Amèrica goals ↓
Carroi goals →
01234
03.4%5.0%6.6%5.0%2.8%
12.8%9.0%9.2%6.9%3.9%
22.5%5.7%6.4%4.9%2.7%
31.2%2.7%3.0%2.3%1.3%
40.4%0.9%1.1%0.8%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Atlètic Amèrica goals (down), columns = Carroi goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Carroi
2.19
Atlètic Amèrica
1.88
City Escaldes
1.44
UE Santa Coloma II
1.00
Ranger's II
0.62
Atlètic Amèrica is 0.31 points worse than Carroi in terms of average points per game (1.88 vs 2.19).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Carroi
2.50
Atlètic Amèrica
2.19
City Escaldes
1.88
UE Santa Coloma II
1.31
Ranger's II
1.00
Atlètic Amèrica is 0.31 goals worse than Carroi in terms of goals scored per game (2.19 vs 2.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Carroi
0.88
Atlètic Amèrica
1.00
UE Santa Coloma II
1.81
City Escaldes
1.81
Ranger's II
3.38
Atlètic Amèrica is 0.12 goals worse than Carroi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.88).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.588.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.570.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RI (34)
€5m
ACI (35)
€5m
USC (26)
€5m
CAR (29)
€3m
CE (51)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RI (0)
€0m
ACI (0)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
CE (0)
€0m
USC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RI (0)
€0m
ACI (0)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
CE (0)
€0m
USC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RI (0)
€0m
ACI (0)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
CE (0)
€0m
USC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Atlètic Amèrica vs Carroi · H/A from AA
DateH/AGameScore
19/02/25ACarroi Vs AA1-1
29/09/24HAA Vs Carroi2-1
20/04/24ACarroi Vs AA2-3
10/12/23HAA Vs Carroi1-3
17/09/23ACarroi Vs AA2-2
20/05/23HAA Vs Carroi2-3
26/03/23ACarroi Vs AA1-4
27/11/22HAA Vs Carroi2-2

Atlètic AmèricaAtlètic Amèrica

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/02/25ARanger's II Vs AA1-4
19/02/25ACarroi Vs AA1-1
09/02/25HAA Vs UE Santa Coloma II3-0
02/02/25HAA Vs City Escaldes1-3
26/01/25ACity Escaldes Vs AA4-2
18/01/25HAA Vs UE Santa Coloma II0-2
24/11/24HAA Vs Ranger's II1-1
09/11/24AUE Santa Coloma II Vs AA1-4
19/10/24ACity Escaldes Vs AA0-5
05/10/24ARanger's II Vs AA1-0

CarroiCarroi

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/02/25HCAR Vs Atlètic Amèrica1-1
16/02/25HCAR Vs UE Santa Coloma II2-0
08/02/25HCAR Vs City Escaldes3-1
01/02/25ARanger's II Vs CAR0-8
25/01/25AUE Santa Coloma II Vs CAR0-4
19/01/25HCAR Vs Ranger's II4-1
01/12/24ACity Escaldes Vs CAR1-2
10/11/24HCAR Vs Ranger's II3-1
27/10/24ACity Escaldes Vs CAR0-1
20/10/24AUE Santa Coloma II Vs CAR2-2

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Atlètic Amèrica
Atlètic Amèrica
Andorra: 2a Divisió
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDW1.10
HomeWDLLW0.92
AwayWWLDW1.27
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%25%38%
AVG goals3.823.883.77
Over 1.5 %86%88%85%
Over 2.5 %70%71%69%
Over 3.5 %48%46%50%
Scored1.541.581.50
Conceded2.282.292.27
BTTS52%62%42%
Clean Sheet14%12%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Carroi
Carroi
Andorra: 2a Divisió
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWD1.28
HomeWWWWD1.17
AwayDWWWW1.37
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%35%41%
AVG goals3.443.263.59
Over 1.5 %92%96%89%
Over 2.5 %66%57%74%
Over 3.5 %48%48%48%
Scored1.481.301.63
Conceded1.961.961.96
BTTS44%35%52%
Clean Sheet28%26%30%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1CarroiCarroi1635
69%
2.2
4014+26
3.4
75%
62%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0002.50.9
-
2Atlètic AmèricaAtlètic Amèrica1630
56%
1.9
3516+19
3.2
88%
56%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
3City EscaldesCity Escaldes1623
44%
1.4
3029+1
3.7
75%
69%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.8
-
4UE Santa Coloma IIUE Santa Coloma II1616
25%
1.0
2129-8
3.1
75%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
0001.31.8
-
5RangerRanger's II1610
19%
0.6
1654-38
4.4
88%
81%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
0001.03.4
-
6Atlètic Club IIAtlètic Club II00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
0000.00.0
-
Andorra: 2a Divisió 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Andorra: 2a Divisió stats & trends →

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