This opponent (Celta Vigo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celta Vigo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.37
1.67
1.27
1.13
1.47
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
2.75
2.00
3.50
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (21)
1.43
1.29
1.50
1.00
1.36
1.55
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.60
2.00
0.67
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.8%
Under 1.5
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.8%
Under 2.5
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.9%
Under 3.5
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.7%
No
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.4%
3-0
11.2%
1-0
8.5%
2-1
8.4%
3-1
7.6%
4-0
7.6%
1-1
6.9%
4-1
5.2%
Atletico Madrid goals ↓
Celta Vigo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.0%
1.7%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
1
8.5%
6.9%
2.1%
0.5%
0.1%
2
12%
8.4%
2.9%
0.7%
0.1%
3
11%
7.6%
2.6%
0.6%
0.1%
4
7.6%
5.2%
1.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Atletico Madrid goals (down), columns = Celta Vigo goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Real Madrid
2.45
Barcelona
2.37
Atletico Madrid
2.05
Sevilla
1.89
Villarreal
1.76
Real Sociedad
1.68
Athletic Club
1.66
Espanyol
1.47
Alaves
1.45
Eibar
1.42
Malaga
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Celta Vigo
1.18
Las Palmas
1.03
Real Betis
1.03
Deportivo La Coruna
0.95
Leganes
0.92
Sporting Gijon
0.82
Osasuna
0.58
Granada CF
0.53
Atletico Madrid is 0.87 points better than Celta Vigo in terms of average points per game (2.05 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
3.05
Real Madrid
2.79
Atletico Madrid
1.84
Sevilla
1.82
Real Sociedad
1.55
Eibar
1.47
Villarreal
1.47
Valencia
1.47
Celta Vigo
1.39
Las Palmas
1.39
Athletic Club
1.39
Malaga
1.29
Espanyol
1.29
Deportivo La Coruna
1.13
Sporting Gijon
1.11
Alaves
1.08
Real Betis
1.08
Osasuna
1.05
Leganes
0.95
Granada CF
0.79
Atletico Madrid is 0.45 goals better than Celta Vigo in terms of goals scored per game (1.84 vs 1.39).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Atletico Madrid
0.71
Villarreal
0.87
Barcelona
0.97
Real Madrid
1.08
Alaves
1.13
Athletic Club
1.13
Sevilla
1.29
Espanyol
1.32
Eibar
1.34
Real Sociedad
1.39
Malaga
1.45
Leganes
1.45
Deportivo La Coruna
1.61
Real Betis
1.68
Valencia
1.71
Celta Vigo
1.82
Sporting Gijon
1.89
Las Palmas
1.95
Granada CF
2.16
Osasuna
2.47
Atletico Madrid is 1.11 goals better than Celta Vigo in terms of goals conceded per game (0.71 vs 1.82).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Atletico Madrid
For 5.9 · Against 4.4 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 14.0 · Total 26.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Celta Vigo
For 3.5 · Against 5.2 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 15.0 · Total 28.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Atletico Madrid
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.7
9.4
4.5
4.5
4.5
25.5
27.2
24.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
11.2
14.0
10.3
6.0
6.0
6.0
29.8
35.0
28.0
vs Weaker (46)
9.9
10.5
9.3
4.3
4.4
4.3
25.1
26.8
23.4
% over line
48%
58%
38%
68%
67%
69%
76%
88%
65%
% under line
52%
42%
62%
32%
33%
31%
24%
12%
35%
This opponent (Celta Vigo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celta Vigo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.6
9.3
5.7
5.3
6.2
27.9
27.5
28.2
vs Stronger (8)
9.1
9.8
8.5
4.5
4.0
5.0
26.9
28.2
25.5
vs Similar (34)
9.8
10.1
9.4
6.1
6.1
6.2
28.6
27.8
29.3
vs Weaker (8)
8.4
7.8
9.3
5.4
4.0
7.7
25.9
26.2
25.3
% over line
36%
40%
32%
82%
80%
84%
86%
84%
88%
% under line
64%
60%
68%
18%
20%
16%
14%
16%
12%
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sevilla
11.2
Deportivo La Coruna
11.0
Alaves
10.7
Valencia
10.7
Real Sociedad
10.5
Real Madrid
10.4
Malaga
10.3
Villarreal
10.0
Real Betis
10.0
Atletico Madrid
10.0
Granada CF
10.0
Eibar
9.7
Espanyol
9.6
Celta Vigo
9.4
Athletic Club
9.3
Las Palmas
9.3
Barcelona
9.0
Sporting Gijon
8.7
Osasuna
8.5
Leganes
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Malaga
6.0
Real Betis
5.9
Granada CF
5.8
Alaves
5.8
Celta Vigo
5.7
Sevilla
5.7
Athletic Club
5.4
Valencia
5.4
Espanyol
5.4
Las Palmas
5.4
Real Sociedad
5.3
Barcelona
5.2
Leganes
5.1
Sporting Gijon
5.1
Real Madrid
5.0
Eibar
5.0
Villarreal
4.8
Osasuna
4.6
Atletico Madrid
4.5
Deportivo La Coruna
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Valencia
30.9
Leganes
30.6
Espanyol
29.8
Real Betis
29.6
Sevilla
28.4
Real Sociedad
28.3
Malaga
27.9
Celta Vigo
27.9
Las Palmas
27.9
Granada CF
27.8
Alaves
27.7
Sporting Gijon
27.6
Athletic Club
27.3
Osasuna
26.8
Villarreal
26.2
Barcelona
26.1
Atletico Madrid
25.5
Eibar
25.5
Real Madrid
25.2
Deportivo La Coruna
24.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
52.5%
Under 9.5
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
72.4%
Under 3.5
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
89.7%
Under 21.5
10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Atletico Madrid
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.30
0.87
0.20
0.47
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (28)
0.71
0.25
0.93
0.14
0.50
0.36
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Celta Vigo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celta Vigo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.37
0.80
0.27
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.48
0.70
0.40
0.64
0.55
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.20
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celta Vigo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celta Vigo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celta Vigo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Atletico Madrid
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.43
1.40
0.33
0.87
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (28)
1.18
0.39
1.50
0.21
0.86
0.57
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Celta Vigo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celta Vigo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.00
0.87
1.00
0.67
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
2.75
0.50
3.50
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.81
0.80
0.60
0.73
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.40
1.33
0.67
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celta Vigo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celta Vigo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celta Vigo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Atletico Madrid · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Alex Baena67%
Kang-in Lee33%
Ademola Lookman33%
Giuliano Simeone33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Marcos Llorente0%
Morten Hjulmand0%
Dávid Hancko0%
Pablo Barrios0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcos Llorente33%
Morten Hjulmand33%
Dávid Hancko33%
Alex Baena33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Kang-in Lee0%
Ademola Lookman0%
Giuliano Simeone0%
Pablo Barrios0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marcos Llorente33%
Kang-in Lee33%
Dávid Hancko33%
Alex Baena33%
Giuliano Simeone33%
Pablo Barrios33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Morten Hjulmand0%
Ademola Lookman0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kang-in Lee33%
Alex Baena33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Marcos Llorente0%
Morten Hjulmand0%
Ademola Lookman0%
Dávid Hancko0%
Giuliano Simeone0%
Pablo Barrios0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
Celta Vigo · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Iago Aspas33%
Ionuț Radu0%
Ferrán Jutglà0%
Sergio Carreira0%
Ilaix Moriba0%
Javier Rueda0%
Williot Swedberg0%
Hugo Álvarez0%
Yoel Lago0%
Miguel Román0%
Javi Rodríguez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ionuț Radu33%
Sergio Carreira33%
Javier Rueda33%
Iago Aspas0%
Ferrán Jutglà0%
Ilaix Moriba0%
Williot Swedberg0%
Hugo Álvarez0%
Yoel Lago0%
Miguel Román0%
Javi Rodríguez0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Miguel Román33%
Ionuț Radu0%
Iago Aspas0%
Ferrán Jutglà0%
Sergio Carreira0%
Ilaix Moriba0%
Javier Rueda0%
Williot Swedberg0%
Hugo Álvarez0%
Yoel Lago0%
Javi Rodríguez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ionuț Radu0%
Iago Aspas0%
Ferrán Jutglà0%
Sergio Carreira0%
Ilaix Moriba0%
Javier Rueda0%
Williot Swedberg0%
Hugo Álvarez0%
Yoel Lago0%
Miguel Román0%
Javi Rodríguez0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
DLC (29)
€84m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
LEG (26)
€30m
LP (27)
€30m
SG (23)
€28m
GC (18)
€17m
EIB (24)
€15m
Atletico Madrid's squad is €490m more valuable than Celta Vigo's (€653m vs €163m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
SG (8)
€14m
LP (12)
€14m
LEG (11)
€14m
EIB (8)
€7m
GC (5)
€6m
Atletico Madrid's attack is €234m more valuable than Celta Vigo's (€290m vs €57m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
LEG (5)
€8m
MAL (5)
€6m
SG (5)
€5m
EIB (6)
€3m
GC (3)
€3m
LP (5)
€3m
Atletico Madrid's midfield is €120m more valuable than Celta Vigo's (€155m vs €35m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
OSA (10)
€33m
DLC (13)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
LP (10)
€13m
MAL (11)
€9m
SG (10)
€9m
GC (10)
€9m
LEG (10)
€8m
EIB (10)
€5m
Atletico Madrid's defence is €137m more valuable than Celta Vigo's (€208m vs €71m).
Spain: La Liga 2016/17 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
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Real Madrid
Barcelona
Sevilla
Villarreal
Real Sociedad
Athletic Club
Espanyol
Alaves
Eibar
Malaga
Valencia
Las Palmas
Real Betis
Deportivo La Coruna
Leganes
Sporting Gijon
Osasuna
Granada CF