This opponent (Malaga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Malaga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.47
1.40
1.47
0.80
1.47
vs Stronger (17)
1.18
1.53
1.50
1.25
0.89
1.78
vs Similar (13)
1.00
1.38
1.29
1.71
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
80.0%
Under 1.5
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.5%
Under 2.5
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.1%
Under 3.5
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
41.8%
No
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
14.4%
1-0 ✓
11.5%
3-0
11.2%
2-1
8.7%
1-1
8.2%
3-1
6.8%
4-0
6.6%
0-0
6.0%
Atletico Madrid goals ↓
Malaga goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
2.4%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
1
12%
8.2%
2.3%
0.5%
0.1%
2
14%
8.7%
2.6%
0.5%
0.1%
3
11%
6.8%
2.1%
0.4%
0.1%
4
6.6%
4.0%
1.2%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Atletico Madrid goals (down), columns = Malaga goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.45
Atletico Madrid
2.08
Real Madrid
2.00
Valencia
1.92
Villarreal
1.61
Real Betis
1.58
Sevilla
1.53
Getafe
1.45
Eibar
1.34
Girona
1.34
Celta Vigo
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.29
Espanyol
1.29
Alaves
1.24
Levante
1.21
Leganes
1.13
Athletic Club
1.13
Deportivo La Coruna
0.76
Las Palmas
0.58
Malaga
0.53
Atletico Madrid is 1.55 points better than Malaga in terms of average points per game (2.08 vs 0.53).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.61
Real Madrid
2.47
Real Sociedad
1.74
Valencia
1.71
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.55
Atletico Madrid
1.53
Villarreal
1.50
Girona
1.32
Sevilla
1.29
Eibar
1.16
Levante
1.16
Getafe
1.11
Athletic Club
1.08
Alaves
1.05
Deportivo La Coruna
1.00
Espanyol
0.95
Leganes
0.89
Malaga
0.63
Las Palmas
0.63
Atletico Madrid is 0.89 goals better than Malaga in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 0.63).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Atletico Madrid
0.58
Barcelona
0.76
Getafe
0.87
Valencia
1.00
Espanyol
1.11
Real Madrid
1.16
Athletic Club
1.29
Eibar
1.32
Alaves
1.32
Villarreal
1.32
Leganes
1.34
Sevilla
1.53
Levante
1.53
Real Sociedad
1.55
Girona
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.58
Malaga
1.61
Real Betis
1.61
Las Palmas
1.95
Deportivo La Coruna
2.00
Atletico Madrid is 1.03 goals better than Malaga in terms of goals conceded per game (0.58 vs 1.61).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Atletico Madrid
For 3.2 · Against 4.2 · Total 7.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 3.3 · Total 5.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 11.8 · Total 24.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Malaga
For 3.9 · Against 4.0 · Total 7.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.8 · Against 14.2 · Total 29.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Atletico Madrid
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.9
9.1
4.7
4.8
4.7
25.8
27.0
24.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
10.8
12.5
9.0
5.8
6.0
5.5
33.2
38.5
28.0
vs Weaker (46)
9.3
9.6
9.1
4.7
4.6
4.7
25.1
26.0
24.3
% over line
42%
54%
31%
72%
67%
77%
78%
88%
69%
% under line
58%
46%
69%
28%
33%
23%
22%
12%
31%
This opponent (Malaga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Malaga
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.3
9.8
5.7
5.7
5.7
28.3
29.0
27.5
vs Stronger (25)
10.6
10.0
11.0
5.9
6.1
5.8
27.0
28.2
26.1
vs Similar (25)
9.5
10.5
8.0
5.5
5.5
5.5
29.6
29.5
29.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
50%
50%
86%
85%
88%
88%
88%
88%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
14%
15%
12%
12%
12%
12%
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Deportivo La Coruna
10.7
Real Madrid
10.4
Real Sociedad
10.2
Getafe
10.2
Levante
10.2
Villarreal
10.1
Malaga
10.0
Alaves
10.0
Athletic Club
9.7
Barcelona
9.6
Valencia
9.6
Eibar
9.6
Atletico Madrid
9.5
Real Betis
9.3
Las Palmas
9.3
Sevilla
9.1
Espanyol
9.1
Celta Vigo
8.8
Leganes
8.5
Girona
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Girona
8.0
Levante
5.8
Alaves
5.8
Sevilla
5.7
Malaga
5.7
Real Betis
5.6
Getafe
5.5
Las Palmas
5.5
Athletic Club
5.4
Real Sociedad
5.3
Valencia
5.3
Celta Vigo
5.2
Real Madrid
5.2
Barcelona
5.0
Eibar
5.0
Espanyol
4.9
Leganes
4.9
Villarreal
4.9
Deportivo La Coruna
4.8
Atletico Madrid
4.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Girona
31.0
Leganes
30.2
Real Betis
29.8
Real Sociedad
29.7
Sevilla
29.4
Valencia
29.1
Las Palmas
28.7
Malaga
28.3
Espanyol
27.8
Levante
27.7
Alaves
27.7
Celta Vigo
27.2
Athletic Club
27.0
Barcelona
26.7
Deportivo La Coruna
26.7
Getafe
26.4
Villarreal
26.3
Atletico Madrid
25.8
Real Madrid
24.9
Eibar
24.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
45.2%
Under 9.5
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
75.5%
Under 3.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
88.8%
Under 21.5
11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Atletico Madrid
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.27
0.64
0.14
0.56
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (27)
0.67
0.26
0.75
0.08
0.60
0.40
Clean sheet %
80% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Malaga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Malaga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.67
0.73
0.53
0.27
0.80
vs Stronger (17)
0.53
0.82
0.75
0.38
0.33
1.22
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.46
0.71
0.71
0.17
0.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malaga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malaga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malaga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Atletico Madrid
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.47
0.93
0.57
1.31
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.67
1.67
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (27)
1.19
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Malaga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Malaga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.67
0.93
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (17)
0.65
0.71
0.75
0.88
0.56
0.56
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.92
0.57
1.00
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malaga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malaga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malaga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home win
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Atletico Madrid · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Alex Baena67%
Kang-in Lee33%
Ademola Lookman33%
Giuliano Simeone33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Marcos Llorente0%
Morten Hjulmand0%
Dávid Hancko0%
Pablo Barrios0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcos Llorente33%
Morten Hjulmand33%
Dávid Hancko33%
Alex Baena33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Kang-in Lee0%
Ademola Lookman0%
Giuliano Simeone0%
Pablo Barrios0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marcos Llorente33%
Kang-in Lee33%
Dávid Hancko33%
Alex Baena33%
Giuliano Simeone33%
Pablo Barrios33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Morten Hjulmand0%
Ademola Lookman0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kang-in Lee33%
Alex Baena33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Marcos Llorente0%
Morten Hjulmand0%
Ademola Lookman0%
Dávid Hancko0%
Giuliano Simeone0%
Pablo Barrios0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
Malaga · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Chupete33%
Joaquín Muñoz0%
Einar Galilea0%
Alfonso Herrero0%
Ramón Enríquez0%
Carlos Dotor0%
Carlos Puga0%
Juan Cruz0%
David Larrubia0%
Ángel Recio0%
Rafa Rodriguez0%
Izan Merino0%
Rafa Garrido0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ramón Enríquez67%
Carlos Puga33%
Juan Cruz33%
David Larrubia33%
Chupete33%
Joaquín Muñoz0%
Einar Galilea0%
Alfonso Herrero0%
Carlos Dotor0%
Ángel Recio0%
Rafa Rodriguez0%
Izan Merino0%
Rafa Garrido0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Joaquín Muñoz0%
Einar Galilea0%
Alfonso Herrero0%
Ramón Enríquez0%
Carlos Dotor0%
Carlos Puga0%
Juan Cruz0%
David Larrubia0%
Ángel Recio0%
Rafa Rodriguez0%
Chupete0%
Izan Merino0%
Rafa Garrido0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rafa Rodriguez33%
Chupete33%
Joaquín Muñoz0%
Einar Galilea0%
Alfonso Herrero0%
Ramón Enríquez0%
Carlos Dotor0%
Carlos Puga0%
Juan Cruz0%
David Larrubia0%
Ángel Recio0%
Izan Merino0%
Rafa Garrido0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GIR (28)
€114m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
LEG (26)
€30m
LP (27)
€30m
EIB (24)
€15m
Atletico Madrid's squad is €612m more valuable than Malaga's (€653m vs €41m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
GIR (12)
€64m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
MAL (11)
€26m
ALA (8)
€24m
LP (12)
€14m
LEG (11)
€14m
EIB (8)
€7m
Atletico Madrid's attack is €265m more valuable than Malaga's (€290m vs €26m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GIR (7)
€28m
GET (6)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
LEG (5)
€8m
MAL (5)
€6m
EIB (6)
€3m
LP (5)
€3m
Atletico Madrid's midfield is €149m more valuable than Malaga's (€155m vs €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
GET (13)
€26m
GIR (9)
€22m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
LP (10)
€13m
MAL (11)
€9m
LEG (10)
€8m
EIB (10)
€5m
Atletico Madrid's defence is €198m more valuable than Malaga's (€208m vs €9m).
Spain: La Liga 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barcelona
Real Madrid
Valencia
Villarreal
Real Betis
Sevilla
Getafe
Eibar
Girona
Real Sociedad
Celta Vigo
Espanyol
Alaves
Levante
Athletic Club
Leganes
Deportivo La Coruna
Las Palmas