This opponent (Real Sociedad) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Sociedad
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.33
1.47
1.33
1.47
1.33
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.75
1.00
1.33
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (10)
1.20
1.60
0.83
1.50
1.75
1.75
vs Weaker (16)
1.81
1.06
2.33
1.17
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
82.6%
Under 1.5
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
60.1%
Under 2.5
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.7%
Under 3.5
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.1%
No
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.4%
1-1
10.0%
2-1
9.9%
1-0 ✓
8.7%
3-0
7.5%
3-1
7.1%
0-0
5.4%
2-2
4.7%
Atletico Madrid goals ↓
Real Sociedad goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
3.3%
2.0%
0.6%
0.1%
1
8.7%
10%
4.3%
1.4%
0.3%
2
10%
9.9%
4.7%
1.5%
0.3%
3
7.5%
7.1%
3.4%
1.1%
0.3%
4
4.1%
3.9%
1.8%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Atletico Madrid goals (down), columns = Real Sociedad goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Real Madrid
2.45
Barcelona
2.37
Atletico Madrid
2.05
Sevilla
1.89
Villarreal
1.76
Real Sociedad
1.68
Athletic Club
1.66
Espanyol
1.47
Alaves
1.45
Eibar
1.42
Malaga
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Celta Vigo
1.18
Las Palmas
1.03
Real Betis
1.03
Deportivo La Coruna
0.95
Leganes
0.92
Sporting Gijon
0.82
Osasuna
0.58
Granada CF
0.53
Atletico Madrid is 0.37 points better than Real Sociedad in terms of average points per game (2.05 vs 1.68).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
3.05
Real Madrid
2.79
Atletico Madrid
1.84
Sevilla
1.82
Real Sociedad
1.55
Eibar
1.47
Villarreal
1.47
Valencia
1.47
Celta Vigo
1.39
Las Palmas
1.39
Athletic Club
1.39
Malaga
1.29
Espanyol
1.29
Deportivo La Coruna
1.13
Sporting Gijon
1.11
Alaves
1.08
Real Betis
1.08
Osasuna
1.05
Leganes
0.95
Granada CF
0.79
Atletico Madrid is 0.29 goals better than Real Sociedad in terms of goals scored per game (1.84 vs 1.55).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Atletico Madrid
0.71
Villarreal
0.87
Barcelona
0.97
Real Madrid
1.08
Alaves
1.13
Athletic Club
1.13
Sevilla
1.29
Espanyol
1.32
Eibar
1.34
Real Sociedad
1.39
Malaga
1.45
Leganes
1.45
Deportivo La Coruna
1.61
Real Betis
1.68
Valencia
1.71
Celta Vigo
1.82
Sporting Gijon
1.89
Las Palmas
1.95
Granada CF
2.16
Osasuna
2.47
Atletico Madrid is 0.68 goals better than Real Sociedad in terms of goals conceded per game (0.71 vs 1.39).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Atletico Madrid
For 3.6 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.6 · Against 13.3 · Total 27.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Real Sociedad
For 5.2 · Against 3.7 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 3.4 · Total 5.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 17.6 · Total 29.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Atletico Madrid
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.5
9.7
4.4
4.5
4.3
26.0
27.2
24.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
11.2
12.5
10.3
6.0
6.0
6.0
32.2
38.5
28.0
vs Weaker (45)
10.0
10.3
9.6
4.2
4.4
4.1
25.3
26.2
24.4
% over line
50%
60%
40%
66%
64%
68%
80%
88%
72%
% under line
50%
40%
60%
34%
36%
32%
20%
12%
28%
This opponent (Real Sociedad) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Sociedad
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
11.0
9.8
5.6
6.0
5.1
28.9
28.6
29.1
vs Stronger (7)
10.7
12.6
6.0
5.1
5.8
3.5
30.4
31.4
28.0
vs Similar (16)
9.9
9.5
10.2
6.4
6.2
6.6
31.6
31.1
32.1
vs Weaker (27)
10.7
11.4
10.0
5.1
5.8
4.5
26.8
26.0
27.6
% over line
62%
73%
50%
86%
96%
75%
90%
85%
96%
% under line
38%
27%
50%
14%
4%
25%
10%
15%
4%
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Deportivo La Coruna
10.8
Sevilla
10.6
Real Sociedad
10.4
Real Madrid
10.4
Valencia
10.4
Malaga
10.3
Granada CF
10.1
Alaves
10.1
Atletico Madrid
10.1
Real Betis
10.0
Villarreal
9.9
Athletic Club
9.4
Espanyol
9.3
Eibar
9.3
Sporting Gijon
9.3
Las Palmas
9.2
Barcelona
9.1
Celta Vigo
8.7
Osasuna
8.6
Leganes
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Alaves
6.0
Malaga
5.9
Granada CF
5.8
Sevilla
5.8
Real Betis
5.7
Celta Vigo
5.6
Real Sociedad
5.6
Las Palmas
5.5
Athletic Club
5.5
Leganes
5.4
Valencia
5.3
Espanyol
5.3
Sporting Gijon
5.2
Real Madrid
5.1
Barcelona
5.1
Eibar
5.0
Villarreal
4.8
Osasuna
4.8
Deportivo La Coruna
4.5
Atletico Madrid
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Leganes
31.0
Real Betis
30.1
Valencia
29.6
Real Sociedad
28.9
Sevilla
28.6
Espanyol
28.2
Las Palmas
28.2
Alaves
28.0
Sporting Gijon
27.9
Malaga
27.8
Granada CF
27.3
Celta Vigo
27.3
Osasuna
26.8
Athletic Club
26.8
Atletico Madrid
26.0
Barcelona
25.9
Villarreal
25.4
Eibar
25.4
Real Madrid
25.2
Deportivo La Coruna
25.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
51.0%
Under 9.5
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
71.1%
Under 3.5
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
91.2%
Under 21.5
8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Atletico Madrid
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.30
0.87
0.27
0.27
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (27)
0.63
0.26
1.00
0.23
0.29
0.29
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Sociedad) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Sociedad
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.63
0.47
0.60
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.75
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.70
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (16)
0.56
0.56
0.83
0.50
0.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Sociedad over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Sociedad over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Sociedad over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Atletico Madrid
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.47
1.40
0.53
1.20
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.67
1.33
0.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (27)
1.37
0.37
1.54
0.31
1.21
0.43
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Sociedad) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Sociedad
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.70
1.00
0.73
0.93
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.90
0.50
0.83
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
1.25
0.50
1.50
0.67
1.10
0.40
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Sociedad over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Sociedad over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Sociedad over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Atletico Madrid · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Alex Baena67%
Kang-in Lee33%
Ademola Lookman33%
Giuliano Simeone33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Marcos Llorente0%
Morten Hjulmand0%
Dávid Hancko0%
Pablo Barrios0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcos Llorente33%
Morten Hjulmand33%
Dávid Hancko33%
Alex Baena33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Kang-in Lee0%
Ademola Lookman0%
Giuliano Simeone0%
Pablo Barrios0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marcos Llorente33%
Kang-in Lee33%
Dávid Hancko33%
Alex Baena33%
Giuliano Simeone33%
Pablo Barrios33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Morten Hjulmand0%
Ademola Lookman0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kang-in Lee33%
Alex Baena33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Marcos Llorente0%
Morten Hjulmand0%
Ademola Lookman0%
Dávid Hancko0%
Giuliano Simeone0%
Pablo Barrios0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
Real Sociedad · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luka Sučić33%
Ander Barrenetxea33%
Orri Óskarsson33%
Sergio Gómez0%
Carlos Soler0%
Yangel Herrera0%
Takefusa Kubo0%
Álex Remiro0%
Igor Zubeldia0%
Mikel Oyarzabal0%
Beñat Turrientes0%
Jon Aramburu0%
Jon Martin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Igor Zubeldia67%
Jon Aramburu67%
Sergio Gómez33%
Yangel Herrera33%
Beñat Turrientes33%
Carlos Soler0%
Luka Sučić0%
Takefusa Kubo0%
Álex Remiro0%
Ander Barrenetxea0%
Mikel Oyarzabal0%
Orri Óskarsson0%
Jon Martin0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mikel Oyarzabal33%
Sergio Gómez0%
Carlos Soler0%
Yangel Herrera0%
Luka Sučić0%
Takefusa Kubo0%
Álex Remiro0%
Igor Zubeldia0%
Ander Barrenetxea0%
Orri Óskarsson0%
Beñat Turrientes0%
Jon Aramburu0%
Jon Martin0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Orri Óskarsson33%
Sergio Gómez0%
Carlos Soler0%
Yangel Herrera0%
Luka Sučić0%
Takefusa Kubo0%
Álex Remiro0%
Igor Zubeldia0%
Ander Barrenetxea0%
Mikel Oyarzabal0%
Beñat Turrientes0%
Jon Aramburu0%
Jon Martin0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
DLC (29)
€84m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
LEG (26)
€30m
LP (27)
€30m
SG (23)
€28m
GC (18)
€17m
EIB (24)
€15m
Atletico Madrid's squad is €406m more valuable than Real Sociedad's (€653m vs €247m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
SG (8)
€14m
LP (12)
€14m
LEG (11)
€14m
EIB (8)
€7m
GC (5)
€6m
Atletico Madrid's attack is €181m more valuable than Real Sociedad's (€290m vs €110m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
LEG (5)
€8m
MAL (5)
€6m
SG (5)
€5m
EIB (6)
€3m
GC (3)
€3m
LP (5)
€3m
Atletico Madrid's midfield is €97m more valuable than Real Sociedad's (€155m vs €58m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
OSA (10)
€33m
DLC (13)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
LP (10)
€13m
MAL (11)
€9m
SG (10)
€9m
GC (10)
€9m
LEG (10)
€8m
EIB (10)
€5m
Atletico Madrid's defence is €128m more valuable than Real Sociedad's (€208m vs €79m).
Spain: La Liga 2016/17 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
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Real Madrid
Barcelona
Sevilla
Villarreal
Athletic Club
Espanyol
Alaves
Eibar
Malaga
Valencia
Celta Vigo
Las Palmas
Real Betis
Deportivo La Coruna
Leganes
Sporting Gijon
Osasuna
Granada CF