Atletico Madrid is expected to narrowly take the win in this La Liga match against Villarreal. The home side's recent form is a storyline worth noting, as they come off a defeat against Villarreal in their last encounter, losing 1-5. However, Atletico Madrid has a strong home record, scoring an average of 2.17 goals and conceding just 1.08 against weaker opponents.
The expected total goals in this match is 2.8, with the most likely total goals being exactly 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 12.2%. Atletico Madrid has a 52% chance of winning, a 26% chance of drawing, and a 22% chance of losing.
The model's selections include Home or Draw (80.4%), Over 1.5 (78.7%), and Home or Away (75.7%). Atletico Madrid's home scoring and conceding rates are 2.17 and 1.08 goals per match, respectively. Villarreal's away scoring and conceding rates are 0.5 and 4.0 goals per match, respectively, against stronger opponents.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a home win for Atletico Madrid, did not materialise, ending in a 2-2 draw that left the model’s call wrong. The match saw a 2-2 final score, a draw that matched the actual result. Atletico, coming off a draw, had been in a mixed run, while Villarreal also finished on a draw. The model’s selection of a home win had a 52 % probability, yet it missed. All suggested picks were settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.5 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 98.1 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.3 %, Under 6.5 hit at 97.2 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 96.6 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 94.9 %, and Home +2 handicap hit at 93.2 %. Each probability is expressed as a percentage and no other figures are repeated.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Atletico Madrid win✗ Miss
51.6%
Avg Implied 51.5% · @ 1.85
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.90
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.89
Pinnacle
1.87
Superbet
1.87
Draw✓ Hit
26.0%
Avg Implied 25.5% · @ 3.74
Edge
+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.90
Betano
3.90
Dafabet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.84
Superbet
3.80
Villarreal win✗ Miss
22.4%
Avg Implied 23.0% · @ 4.14
Edge
-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.40
Pinnacle
4.36
1xBet
4.36
Marathonbet
4.30
Unibet
4.25
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Atletico Madrid
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.50
2.13
1.20
1.53
1.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
2.08
1.75
2.67
1.33
1.50
2.17
vs Weaker (18)
1.67
1.33
1.78
1.11
1.56
1.56
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Villarreal) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Villarreal
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.50
2.36
1.43
1.00
1.56
vs Stronger (4)
1.50
2.25
1.67
1.67
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (10)
1.40
1.80
2.00
1.83
0.50
1.75
vs Weaker (16)
1.81
1.12
3.20
0.80
1.18
1.27
Clean sheet %
10% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.0%
@ 1.22+1.0%
Under 1.5
22.0%
@ 4.11-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Betano
1.23
BetVictor
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Under
Superbet
4.35
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.30
888Sport
4.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.1%
@ 1.72-2.3%
Under 2.5
46.9%
@ 2.14+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.72
Under
1xBet
2.22
Pinnacle
2.21
SBO
2.21
Betano
2.20
Superbet
2.17
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.8%
@ 2.75-3.5%
Under 3.5
69.2%
@ 1.44+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.10
Unibet
2.85
Pinnacle
2.78
Bet365
2.75
888Sport
2.75
Under
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
Superbet
1.47
888Sport
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.2%
@ 1.64-1.8%
No
44.8%
@ 2.17+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
1.73
888Sport
1.67
William Hil
1.67
Unibet
1.65
Superbet
1.64
No
Betfair
2.30
Betano
2.22
Superbet
2.22
Bet365
2.20
1xBet
2.18
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%@ 6.79+5.7%
2-1
9.7%@ 7.65+3.7%
1-0
9.4%@ 7.98+3.6%
2-0
9.1%@ 9.22+4.1%
0-0
7.2%@ 12.57+3.6%
1-2
6.0%@ 12.20+2.3%
3-1
5.6%@ 12.81+2.0%
0-1
5.4%@ 12.80+1.8%
Atletico Madrid goals ↓
Villarreal goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.2%
5.4%
3.5%
1.3%
0.3%
1
9.4%
12%
6.0%
2.2%
0.6%
2
9.1%
9.7%
5.2%
1.9%
0.5%
3
5.2%
5.6%
3.0%
1.1%
0.3%
4
2.3%
2.4%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Atletico Madrid goals (down), columns = Villarreal goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.47
Real Madrid
2.26
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.82
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.42
Getafe
1.34
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Valencia
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.21
Espanyol
1.21
Athletic Club
1.18
Sevilla
1.13
Elche
1.13
Alaves
1.13
Levante
1.11
Osasuna
1.11
Malaga
1.10
Racing Santander
1.10
Deportivo La Coruna
1.08
Atletico Madrid is 0.08 points worse than Villarreal in terms of average points per game (1.82 vs 1.89).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.50
Real Madrid
2.03
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.63
Real Sociedad
1.55
Real Betis
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.39
Elche
1.29
Levante
1.24
Sevilla
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Osasuna
1.16
Alaves
1.16
Athletic Club
1.13
Espanyol
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Malaga
1.08
Racing Santander
1.08
Deportivo La Coruna
1.06
Getafe
0.84
Atletico Madrid is 0.26 goals worse than Villarreal in terms of goals scored per game (1.63 vs 1.89).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Getafe
1.00
Atletico Madrid
1.16
Rayo Vallecano
1.16
Villarreal
1.21
Real Betis
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.26
Osasuna
1.32
Valencia
1.45
Espanyol
1.45
Alaves
1.47
Elche
1.50
Athletic Club
1.53
Sevilla
1.58
Levante
1.61
Real Sociedad
1.61
Malaga
1.69
Racing Santander
1.69
Deportivo La Coruna
1.72
Atletico Madrid is 0.05 goals better than Villarreal in terms of goals conceded per game (1.16 vs 1.21).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
69%
Real Madrid
59%
Elche
58%
Rayo Vallecano
53%
Atletico Madrid
53%
Real Sociedad
51%
Sevilla
51%
Celta Vigo
50%
Real Betis
50%
Athletic Club
49%
Alaves
48%
Valencia
48%
Osasuna
47%
Villarreal
45%
Levante
43%
Espanyol
42%
Getafe
40%
Atletico Madrid is 8.8 percentage points better than Villarreal in terms of average possession (53% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Atletico Madrid
For 5.9 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 10.4 · Total 21.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Villarreal
For 5.5 · Against 6.2 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 11.9 · Total 22.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Atletico Madrid
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
11.0
10.7
3.9
3.5
4.3
20.9
20.2
21.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
9.7
9.2
10.0
4.6
4.4
4.8
21.3
21.9
20.9
vs Weaker (32)
11.5
11.8
11.1
3.5
3.1
3.9
20.6
19.4
21.9
% over line
64%
62%
65%
52%
46%
58%
50%
42%
58%
% under line
36%
38%
35%
48%
54%
42%
50%
58%
42%
This opponent (Villarreal) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Villarreal
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.7
8.6
4.3
4.0
4.6
24.5
23.7
25.2
vs Stronger (8)
9.0
10.4
6.7
4.2
3.6
5.3
23.8
24.0
23.3
vs Similar (19)
9.3
10.3
8.4
4.7
4.1
5.2
24.3
23.0
25.5
vs Weaker (23)
9.0
8.7
9.2
4.1
4.2
4.0
24.9
24.1
25.4
% over line
44%
57%
33%
58%
57%
59%
64%
57%
70%
% under line
56%
43%
67%
42%
43%
41%
36%
43%
30%
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rayo Vallecano
10.8
Atletico Madrid
10.8
Barcelona
10.8
Alaves
10.5
Real Madrid
10.5
Racing Santander
10.5
Real Sociedad
10.2
Levante
10.0
Espanyol
9.7
Valencia
9.7
Athletic Club
9.7
Sevilla
9.3
Osasuna
9.1
Villarreal
9.1
Deportivo La Coruna
9.0
Real Betis
9.0
Malaga
9.0
Getafe
8.7
Elche
8.3
Celta Vigo
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.6
Rayo Vallecano
5.7
Getafe
5.4
Sevilla
5.3
Malaga
5.2
Deportivo La Coruna
5.1
Real Sociedad
5.0
Alaves
4.9
Osasuna
4.9
Real Madrid
4.9
Espanyol
4.9
Real Betis
4.8
Levante
4.8
Elche
4.7
Athletic Club
4.7
Celta Vigo
4.7
Valencia
4.6
Barcelona
4.4
Villarreal
4.3
Atletico Madrid
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
29.2
Alaves
28.9
Elche
27.9
Sevilla
27.6
Racing Santander
26.7
Real Sociedad
26.6
Espanyol
25.9
Rayo Vallecano
25.8
Athletic Club
25.5
Osasuna
25.3
Celta Vigo
24.9
Levante
24.8
Malaga
24.6
Villarreal
24.5
Valencia
24.4
Real Madrid
24.1
Real Betis
23.7
Deportivo La Coruna
23.6
Barcelona
21.8
Atletico Madrid
20.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.74
Superbet
1.71
Unibet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
2.11
Betfair
2.10
Betano
2.07
Superbet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Unibet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Superbet
1.37
Under
Pinnacle
2.86
Superbet
2.80
Unibet
2.65
Betano
2.62
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.48
Under
1xBet
2.36
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Atletico Madrid or Draw✓ Hit
81.6%
Avg Implied 76.9% · @ 1.23
Edge
+4.7%
52%
26%
22%
covers Atletico Madrid + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Atletico Madrid or Villarreal✗ Miss
75.7%
Avg Implied 74.7% · @ 1.26
Edge
+1.0%
52%
26%
22%
covers Atletico Madrid + Villarreal
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
888Sport
1.29
Marathonbet
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Draw or Villarreal✓ Hit
42.7%
Avg Implied 48.4% · @ 1.95
Edge
-5.7%
52%
26%
22%
covers Draw + Villarreal
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.05
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
Unibet
1.97
Superbet
1.97
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
84.9%
@ 1.14+3.4%
Under
15.1%
@ 5.05-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Under
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
Superbet
5.10
Unibet
5.00
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
56.4%
@ 1.76+3.3%
Under
43.6%
@ 2.00-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.78
Pinnacle
1.78
1xBet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Under
Pinnacle
2.10
1xBet
2.06
Marathonbet
2.05
Superbet
2.02
Betfair
2.00
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
29.4%
@ 3.41+2.0%
Under
70.6%
@ 1.29-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.80
Betfair
3.60
Pinnacle
3.47
Bet365
3.40
1xBet
3.40
Under
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.30
888Sport
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Atletico Madrid over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
12.4%
@ 7.38-0.3%
Under
87.6%
@ 1.07+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
1xBet
7.70
888Sport
7.50
Marathonbet
7.50
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
888Sport
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Villarreal over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
63.0%
@ 1.39-3.9%
Under
37.0%
@ 2.81+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.42
10Bet
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Unibet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.98
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Betano
2.87
Superbet
2.85
Villarreal over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
26.2%
@ 2.92-5.8%
Under
73.8%
@ 1.37+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.09
Marathonbet
3.02
Bet365
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Unibet
2.95
Under
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Superbet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Villarreal over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.9%
@ 7.47-4.6%
Under
92.1%
@ 1.07+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.20
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
1xBet
7.80
888Sport
7.50
Under
Betano
1.10
888Sport
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Unibet
1.07
Villarreal over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 19.06-3.2%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
23.00
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Atletico Madrid, so a minus line means Atletico Madrid give that many goals of a start and Villarreal receive them. At -1, Atletico Madrid must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Atletico Madrid win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Atletico Madrid)Actual: Villarreal
Atletico Madrid -2
16.3%
@ 6.57+2.6%
Draw -2
17.9%
@ 5.33+0.9%
Villarreal +2
65.7%
@ 1.30-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Superbet
6.20
Marathonbet
6.20
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Superbet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Away
Superbet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
Unibet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Handicap -1 (Atletico Madrid)Actual: Villarreal
Atletico Madrid -1
34.3%
@ 3.17+5.7%
Draw -1
23.1%
@ 3.73-1.3%
Villarreal +1
42.7%
@ 1.93-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
3.35
Betfair
3.30
Superbet
3.15
Marathonbet
3.14
Bet365
3.10
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.80
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Away
Marathonbet
2.01
Superbet
1.95
Unibet
1.95
Betfair
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Handicap +1 (Atletico Madrid)Actual: Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid +1
81.6%
@ 1.23+7.4%
Draw +1
11.6%
@ 5.83-3.9%
Villarreal -1
6.8%
@ 8.83-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Draw
Marathonbet
6.10
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Superbet
5.90
Unibet
5.75
Away
Betfair
10.00
Marathonbet
9.20
Bet365
9.00
Unibet
8.50
Superbet
8.30
Handicap +2 (Atletico Madrid)Actual: Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid +2
93.2%
@ 1.05+5.7%
Draw +2
4.9%
@ 11.12-3.3%
Villarreal -2
1.8%
@ 21.50-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
10.00
10Bet
8.50
Away
Betfair
26.00
Bet365
23.00
10Bet
19.00
Unibet
18.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Atletico Madrid
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.87
1.07
0.80
0.80
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.25
0.83
1.83
1.00
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (18)
0.72
0.89
0.56
0.67
0.89
1.11
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Villarreal) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Villarreal
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.73
1.36
0.43
0.56
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.00
1.33
0.67
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (10)
1.10
0.70
1.50
0.67
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (16)
0.81
0.69
1.20
0.00
0.64
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
72.2%
@ 1.33+1.5%
Under 0.5
27.8%
@ 3.20-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.35
10Bet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Under
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.35
Pinnacle
3.32
William Hil
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
37.0%
@ 2.54+0.1%
Under 1.5
63.0%
@ 1.49-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.67
SBO
2.66
1xBet
2.57
Marathonbet
2.57
Betfair
2.55
Under
Superbet
1.55
Betano
1.53
Marathonbet
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.6%
@ 6.08-1.8%
Under 2.5
86.4%
@ 1.10+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.20
1xBet
6.20
Bet365
6.00
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.11
10Bet
1.10
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
51.9%
@ 1.72-2.4%
Under
48.1%
@ 2.04+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.75
1xBet
1.72
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.71
Under
Pinnacle
2.10
Superbet
2.07
Betano
2.05
Unibet
2.04
1xBet
2.02
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
16.5%
@ 4.50-4.0%
Under
83.5%
@ 1.16+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
1xBet
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Betano
4.30
Under
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 10.88-5.2%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.02+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Villarreal over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
44.5%
@ 2.38+5.3%
Under
55.5%
@ 1.53-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.54
10Bet
2.40
1xBet
2.40
Unibet
2.38
Marathonbet
2.36
Under
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.53
10Bet
1.53
1xBet
1.52
Villarreal over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.3%
@ 8.18-1.0%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.04+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.40
1xBet
8.90
Unibet
8.00
Superbet
7.60
Betano
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Villarreal over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 21.00-3.1%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
29.00
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Atletico Madrid
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.63
1.07
0.40
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.92
0.83
0.33
0.83
1.50
vs Weaker (18)
0.94
0.44
1.22
0.44
0.67
0.44
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Villarreal) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Villarreal
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
1.00
1.00
0.44
0.56
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.25
0.33
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (10)
0.30
1.10
0.50
1.17
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
1.00
0.44
2.00
0.80
0.55
0.27
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.8%
@ 1.19+1.8%
Under 0.5
19.2%
@ 4.45-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.22
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Under
1xBet
4.65
Marathonbet
4.65
Superbet
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Betano
4.40
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
46.8%
@ 1.92-2.2%
Under 1.5
53.2%
@ 1.84+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.95
William Hil
1.95
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
1xBet
1.94
Under
Marathonbet
1.89
1xBet
1.89
Betano
1.88
Superbet
1.87
888Sport
1.83
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
19.4%
@ 3.86-4.9%
Under 2.5
80.6%
@ 1.24+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.00
888Sport
4.00
Unibet
3.90
Superbet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.84
Under
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
61.6%
@ 1.49-0.9%
Under
38.4%
@ 2.48+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.49
1xBet
1.48
Under
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.50
Superbet
2.45
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
22.2%
@ 3.25-6.3%
Under
77.8%
@ 1.29+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.30
Superbet
3.30
Betano
3.20
1xBet
3.20
Under
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.1%
@ 8.20-6.2%
Under
94.9%
@ 1.04+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.80
Superbet
8.40
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Villarreal over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
45.1%
@ 1.94-2.9%
Under
54.9%
@ 1.78+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.96
Marathonbet
1.95
Superbet
1.92
Betano
1.91
Under
Betano
1.83
Superbet
1.78
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.76
Villarreal over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
11.4%
@ 5.81-4.6%
Under
88.6%
@ 1.10+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.40
1xBet
6.00
Superbet
5.65
Betano
5.20
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
Villarreal over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 14.62-3.7%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.01+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.9%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
93.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.7%
1.05
Betano
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.1%
1.07
Betano
1.10
888Sport
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Unibet
1.07
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.7%
1.04
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.6%
1.10
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
-
+4.6%
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
87.6%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
888Sport
1.08
1xBet
1.07
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.4%
1.10
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.11
10Bet
1.10
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
84.9%
1.14
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.5%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
83.4%
1.15
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
888Sport
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.14
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
81.6%
1.23
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
81.6%
1.23
Marathonbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.21
+7.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.8%
1.19
888Sport
1.22
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.6%
1.24
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
+4.9%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
78.0%
1.22
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Betano
1.23
BetVictor
1.23
Bet365
1.22
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.8%
1.29
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
-
+6.3%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
75.7%
1.26
1xBet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
888Sport
1.29
Marathonbet
1.29
Superbet
1.28
+1.0%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 goals
73.8%
1.37
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Superbet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
+5.8%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.2%
1.33
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.35
10Bet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
+1.5%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
70.6%
1.29
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.30
888Sport
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-2.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Atletico Madrid
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Alex Baena67%
Kang-in Lee33%
Ademola Lookman33%
Giuliano Simeone33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Marcos Llorente0%
Morten Hjulmand0%
Dávid Hancko0%
Pablo Barrios0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcos Llorente33%
Morten Hjulmand33%
Dávid Hancko33%
Alex Baena33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Kang-in Lee0%
Ademola Lookman0%
Giuliano Simeone0%
Pablo Barrios0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marcos Llorente33%
Kang-in Lee33%
Dávid Hancko33%
Alex Baena33%
Giuliano Simeone33%
Pablo Barrios33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Morten Hjulmand0%
Ademola Lookman0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kang-in Lee33%
Alex Baena33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Marcos Llorente0%
Morten Hjulmand0%
Ademola Lookman0%
Dávid Hancko0%
Giuliano Simeone0%
Pablo Barrios0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
Villarreal
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gerard Moreno33%
Nicolas Pépé33%
Pape Gueye33%
Georges Mikautadze33%
Juan Foyth0%
Ayoze Pérez0%
Santi Comesaña0%
Tajon Buchanan0%
Alberto Moleiro0%
Carlos Romero0%
Luiz Júnior0%
Ilias Akhomach0%
Santiago Mouriño0%
Renato Veiga0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Juan Foyth67%
Santiago Mouriño67%
Nicolas Pépé33%
Pape Gueye33%
Carlos Romero33%
Renato Veiga33%
Gerard Moreno0%
Ayoze Pérez0%
Santi Comesaña0%
Tajon Buchanan0%
Georges Mikautadze0%
Alberto Moleiro0%
Luiz Júnior0%
Ilias Akhomach0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Georges Mikautadze33%
Alberto Moleiro33%
Juan Foyth0%
Gerard Moreno0%
Nicolas Pépé0%
Ayoze Pérez0%
Pape Gueye0%
Santi Comesaña0%
Tajon Buchanan0%
Carlos Romero0%
Luiz Júnior0%
Ilias Akhomach0%
Santiago Mouriño0%
Renato Veiga0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Georges Mikautadze67%
Juan Foyth33%
Gerard Moreno33%
Nicolas Pépé0%
Ayoze Pérez0%
Pape Gueye0%
Santi Comesaña0%
Tajon Buchanan0%
Alberto Moleiro0%
Carlos Romero0%
Luiz Júnior0%
Ilias Akhomach0%
Santiago Mouriño0%
Renato Veiga0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RS (20)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
Atletico Madrid's squad is €328m more valuable than Villarreal's (€653m vs €325m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RS (7)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
Atletico Madrid's attack is €166m more valuable than Villarreal's (€290m vs €124m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
RS (5)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€6m
Atletico Madrid's midfield is €103m more valuable than Villarreal's (€155m vs €52m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
RS (8)
€28m
GET (13)
€26m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (11)
€9m
Atletico Madrid's defence is €59m more valuable than Villarreal's (€208m vs €148m).
Spain: La Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barcelona
Real Madrid
Alaves
Osasuna
Sevilla
Real Betis
Deportivo La Coruna
Levante
Racing Santander
Real Sociedad
Espanyol
Athletic Club
Getafe
Celta Vigo
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
Malaga