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Atmosfera vs BFA Prediction & Stats

Date: 19/09/2026
Time: 12:00
Atmosfera
Atmosfera
Vs
35%
26%
39%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
BFA
BFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The contest between Atmosfera and BFA is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. Home victory sits at 35 %, a draw at 26 %, and the away side at 39 %. The expected total is 3.1 goals, yet the most probable total remains 2, a 23 % chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.9 % probability, reflecting both sides’ modest scoring output.

Atmosfera, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 2.31 goals scored and 1.31 conceded. BFA, on the road against a weaker side, nets 2.67 and concedes 1.33 on average, giving the visitors a slight edge.

The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.6 %), Under 6.5 (96.1 %), Home under 3.5 goals (93.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (92.2 %), Under 5.5 (90.6 %), Away +2 handicap (82.7 %), Over 1.5 (82.6 %), and Home under 2.5 goals (80.7 %). Each probability is presented as a percentage, with no additional commentary.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Atmosfera win
35.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BFA win
39.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AtmosferaAtmosfera

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D20W21W03L41W13L11D02L11D13LH·BFA09/11A·FK 11/04H·FK 21/04H·PAN20/05H·HEG25/07A·KAU01/08H·FA 08/08A·TRA14/08A·DAI22/08A·NEP29/08
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.801.102.621.231.181.00
vs Stronger (25)1.681.082.421.331.000.85
vs Similar (5)2.401.205.000.001.751.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFABFA

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W21W03L41W31W01L42W00D20W22DH·BAB28/04H·GAR19/05H·KAU23/06A·EKR19/07H·BE126/07A·FA 02/08H·TRA08/08A·DAI15/08H·NEP22/08A·TAU28/08
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.201.731.001.601.40
vs Stronger (15)1.531.271.331.001.671.44
vs Similar (8)1.381.252.001.200.331.33
vs Weaker (7)2.291.002.000.752.671.33
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Atmosfera) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.8%
Under 1.5
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61.8%
Under 2.5
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
39.5%
Under 3.5
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
64.5%
No
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
1-2
8.6%
2-1
8.1%
2-2
6.7%
0-1
5.7%
0-2
5.6%
1-0
5.3%
0-0
5.2%
Atmosfera goals ↓
BFA goals →
01234
05.2%5.7%5.6%3.1%1.3%
15.3%12%8.6%4.7%1.9%
24.9%8.1%6.7%3.6%1.5%
32.5%4.2%3.4%1.9%0.8%
41.0%1.6%1.3%0.7%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Atmosfera goals (down), columns = BFA goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Atmosfera is 1.17 points worse than BFA in terms of average points per game (0.83 vs 2.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Atmosfera is 0.81 goals worse than BFA in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 2.14).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Atmosfera is 0.83 goals worse than BFA in terms of goals conceded per game (1.83 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Atmosfera or Draw
60.6%
Avg Implied -
35%
26%
39%
covers Atmosfera + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera or BFA
74.5%
Avg Implied -
35%
26%
39%
covers Atmosfera + BFA
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or BFA
64.9%
Avg Implied -
35%
26%
39%
covers Draw + BFA
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Atmosfera over/under 0.5
Over
78.7%
Under
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 1.5
Over
45.7%
Under
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 2.5
Over
20.3%
Under
79.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 3.5
Over
7.1%
Under
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 0.5
Over
80.7%
Under
19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5
Over
49.0%
Under
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5
Over
22.8%
Under
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 3.5
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Atmosfera, so a minus line means Atmosfera give that many goals of a start and BFA receive them. At -1, Atmosfera must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Atmosfera win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Atmosfera)
Atmosfera -2
6.8%
Draw -2
10.6%
BFA +2
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Atmosfera)
Atmosfera -1
17.4%
Draw -1
17.6%
BFA +1
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Atmosfera)
Atmosfera +1
60.6%
Draw +1
18.9%
BFA -1
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Atmosfera)
Atmosfera +2
79.5%
Draw +2
12.1%
BFA -2
8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AtmosferaAtmosfera

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L10W01L01L10W10W11D00D11D01LH·BFA09/11A·FK 11/04H·FK 21/04H·PAN20/05H·HEG25/07A·KAU01/08H·FA 08/08A·TRA14/08A·DAI22/08A·NEP29/08
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.401.080.460.470.35
vs Stronger (25)0.680.481.080.500.310.46
vs Similar (5)1.000.001.000.001.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFABFA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D01L30W10W01L20W00D00D00DH·BAB28/04H·GAR19/05H·KAU23/06A·EKR19/07H·BE126/07A·FA 02/08H·TRA08/08A·DAI15/08H·NEP22/08A·TAU28/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.470.670.330.670.60
vs Stronger (15)0.400.530.330.170.440.78
vs Similar (8)0.620.620.800.600.330.67
vs Weaker (7)1.290.141.000.251.670.00
Clean sheet %67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Atmosfera) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Atmosfera over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AtmosferaAtmosfera

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W10W20W02L31W03L00D02L00D12LH·BFA09/11A·FK 11/04H·FK 21/04H·PAN20/05H·HEG25/07A·KAU01/08H·FA 08/08A·TRA14/08A·DAI22/08A·NEP29/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.701.540.770.710.65
vs Stronger (25)1.000.601.330.830.690.38
vs Similar (5)1.401.204.000.000.751.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFABFA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W02L11D21W00D22D00D20W22DH·BAB28/04H·GAR19/05H·KAU23/06A·EKR19/07H·BE126/07A·FA 02/08H·TRA08/08A·DAI15/08H·NEP22/08A·TAU28/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.731.070.670.930.80
vs Stronger (15)1.130.731.000.831.220.67
vs Similar (8)0.750.621.200.600.000.67
vs Weaker (7)1.000.861.000.501.001.33
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Atmosfera) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Atmosfera over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.3%-------
Under 6.595.6%-------
Home under 3.5 goals92.9%-------
Away under 3.5 goals91.5%-------
Under 5.589.6%-------
Over 1.583.8%-------
Away +2 handicap82.6%-------
Away over 0.5 goals80.7%-------
Home under 2.5 goals79.7%-------
Home +2 handicap79.5%-------
Home over 0.5 goals78.7%-------
Under 4.578.2%-------
Away under 2.5 goals77.2%-------
Home or Away74.5%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Atmosfera and BFA have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Atmosfera and BFA have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Atmosfera and BFA have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
T2 (2)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
3
ATM wins
2
Draws
2
BFA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Atmosfera vs BFA · H/A from ATM
DateH/AGameScore
09/11/25HATM Vs BFA2-2
28/06/25ABFA Vs ATM1-0
13/10/24ABFA Vs ATM0-2
25/05/24HATM Vs BFA1-1
07/05/24HATM Vs BFA6-0
29/10/22ABFA Vs ATM1-2
23/06/22HATM Vs BFA0-1

AtmosferaAtmosfera

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs ATM3-1
22/08/26ADainava Vs ATM1-1
14/08/26ATransinvest 2 Vs ATM2-0
08/08/26HATM Vs FA Šiauliai II1-1
01/08/26AKauno Žalgiris II Vs ATM3-1
25/07/26HATM Vs Hegelmann II4-1
20/05/26HATM Vs Panevėžys0-3
21/04/26HATM Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius2-1
11/04/26AFK Ketera Vs ATM0-2
09/11/25HATM Vs BFA2-2

BFABFA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26ATauras Vs BFA2-2
22/08/26HBFA Vs Neptūną Klaipėda2-0
15/08/26ADainava Vs BFA0-0
08/08/26HBFA Vs Transinvest 24-2
02/08/26AFA Šiauliai II Vs BFA1-0
26/07/26HBFA Vs Be1 NFA3-1
19/07/26AEkranas Vs BFA1-4
23/06/26HBFA Vs Kauno Žalgiris0-3
19/05/26HBFA Vs Garliava2-1
28/04/26HBFA Vs Babrungas1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Atmosfera
Atmosfera
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLDL1.46
HomeDWLWD1.28
AwayWLLDL1.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%36%48%
AVG goals2.863.402.32
Over 1.5 %76%84%68%
Over 2.5 %52%68%36%
Over 3.5 %32%44%20%
Scored1.641.841.44
Conceded1.221.560.88
BTTS52%68%36%
Clean Sheet28%12%44%
Corners---
Cards---
BFA
BFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDWD1.76
HomeWLWWW2.12
AwayWWLDD1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%67%38%
AVG goals2.902.793.00
Over 1.5 %74%67%81%
Over 2.5 %56%50%62%
Over 3.5 %38%33%42%
Scored1.661.711.62
Conceded1.241.081.38
BTTS50%42%58%
Clean Sheet34%46%23%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II719
86%
2.7
156+9
3.0
71%
43%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.10.9
-
2BabrungasBabrungas716
71%
2.3
123+9
2.1
71%
29%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.4
-
3BFABFA714
57%
2.0
157+8
3.1
71%
57%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.0
-
4Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda713
57%
1.9
1010+0
2.9
86%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
5MinijaMinija512
80%
2.4
142+12
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.4
-
6DainavaDainava69
33%
1.5
75+2
2.0
67%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.20.8
-
7Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II69
50%
1.5
1110+1
3.5
100%
83%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.7
-
8Be1 NFABe1 NFA69
50%
1.5
109+1
3.2
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.5
-
9TaurasTauras69
33%
1.5
98+1
2.8
83%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
10JonavaJonava69
50%
1.5
76+1
2.2
67%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
11FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II67
33%
1.2
69-3
2.5
67%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
12Hegelmann IIHegelmann II76
29%
0.9
818-10
3.7
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.6
-
13AtmosferaAtmosfera65
17%
0.8
811-3
3.2
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.8
-
14Transinvest 2Transinvest 274
14%
0.6
1116-5
3.9
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.3
-
15EkranasEkranas74
14%
0.6
621-15
3.9
100%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.0
-
16GarliavaGarliava60
0%
0.0
19-8
1.7
33%
17%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.21.5
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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