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Atmosfera vs Hegelmann II Result & Analysis

Date: 25/07/2026
Time: 12:00
Final 4-1
Atmosfera
Atmosfera
Vs
53%
24%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Hegelmann II
Hegelmann II
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Atmosfera win✓ Hit
53.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II win✗ Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AtmosferaAtmosfera

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L42W00D41W20W30W22D20W21W03LA·BAB19/09H·NEP27/09A·TAU04/10H·NEV18/10A·JON25/10A·EKR01/11H·BFA09/11A·FK 11/04H·FK 21/04H·PAN20/05
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.701.132.061.501.290.71
vs Stronger (27)1.481.221.871.601.000.75
vs Similar (3)3.670.335.000.003.000.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hegelmann IIHegelmann II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W02L02L11D03L31W14L01L00D02LA·PAN29/08H·FA 12/09A·MIN19/09H·ŽAL26/09A·TRA04/10A·BE117/10A·BAB25/10H·NEP31/10A·TAU09/11H·ŽAL21/07
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.731.121.751.141.71
vs Stronger (13)1.381.621.431.711.331.50
vs Similar (11)0.551.730.331.500.802.00
vs Weaker (6)1.672.002.002.331.331.67
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Atmosfera) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%121%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.5%
Under 1.5
15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.1%
Under 2.5
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
40.9%
Under 3.5
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.0%
No
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
7.6%
1-0
6.7%
3-1
6.4%
1-2
6.2%
2-2
6.1%
3-0
5.0%
Atmosfera goals ↓
Hegelmann II goals →
01234
04.8%3.9%3.1%1.3%0.4%
16.7%11%6.2%2.6%0.8%
27.6%9.7%6.1%2.6%0.8%
35.0%6.4%4.1%1.7%0.5%
42.5%3.2%2.0%0.9%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Atmosfera goals (down), columns = Hegelmann II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Atmosfera is 0.02 points worse than Hegelmann II in terms of average points per game (0.83 vs 0.86).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Atmosfera is 0.19 goals better than Hegelmann II in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.14).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Atmosfera is 0.74 goals better than Hegelmann II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.83 vs 2.57).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AtmosferaAtmosfera

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D00D30W10W10W01L10W01L01LA·BAB19/09H·NEP27/09A·TAU04/10H·NEV18/10A·JON25/10A·EKR01/11H·BFA09/11A·FK 11/04H·FK 21/04H·PAN20/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.530.880.690.500.36
vs Stronger (27)0.630.590.870.730.330.42
vs Similar (3)1.330.001.000.001.500.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hegelmann IIHegelmann II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L01L01L01L11D13L01L00D01LA·PAN29/08H·FA 12/09A·MIN19/09H·ŽAL26/09A·TRA04/10A·BE117/10A·BAB25/10H·NEP31/10A·TAU09/11H·ŽAL21/07
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.030.560.940.431.14
vs Stronger (13)0.690.690.860.570.500.83
vs Similar (11)0.181.270.001.170.401.40
vs Weaker (6)0.671.331.001.330.331.33
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Atmosfera) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Atmosfera over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AtmosferaAtmosfera

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L31W00D11D10W20W21W10W20W02LA·BAB19/09H·NEP27/09A·TAU04/10H·NEV18/10A·JON25/10A·EKR01/11H·BFA09/11A·FK 11/04H·FK 21/04H·PAN20/05
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.601.190.810.790.36
vs Stronger (27)0.850.631.000.870.670.33
vs Similar (3)2.330.334.000.001.500.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hegelmann IIHegelmann II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W01L01L10W02L20W01L00D00D01LA·PAN29/08H·FA 12/09A·MIN19/09H·ŽAL26/09A·TRA04/10A·BE117/10A·BAB25/10H·NEP31/10A·TAU09/11H·ŽAL21/07
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.700.560.810.710.57
vs Stronger (13)0.690.920.571.140.830.67
vs Similar (11)0.360.450.330.330.400.60
vs Weaker (6)1.000.671.001.001.000.33
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Atmosfera) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Atmosfera over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Atmosfera and Hegelmann II have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Atmosfera and Hegelmann II have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Atmosfera and Hegelmann II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
T2 (2)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Atmosfera and Hegelmann II have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
ATM wins
2
Draws
1
HI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Atmosfera vs Hegelmann II · H/A from ATM
DateH/AGameScore
27/07/25HATM Vs Hegelmann II2-2
16/03/25AHegelmann II Vs ATM1-1
31/08/24HATM Vs Hegelmann II2-1
07/04/24AHegelmann II Vs ATM3-0

AtmosferaAtmosfera

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/05/26HATM Vs Panevėžys0-3
21/04/26HATM Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius2-1
11/04/26AFK Ketera Vs ATM0-2
09/11/25HATM Vs BFA2-2
01/11/25AEkranas Vs ATM0-3
25/10/25AJonava Vs ATM0-2
18/10/25HATM Vs Nevėžis4-1
04/10/25ATauras Vs ATM0-0
27/09/25HATM Vs Neptūną Klaipėda4-2
19/09/25ABabrungas Vs ATM3-0

Hegelmann IIHegelmann II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/07/26HHI Vs Žalgiris II0-2
09/11/25ATauras Vs HI0-0
31/10/25HHI Vs Neptūną Klaipėda0-1
25/10/25ABabrungas Vs HI4-1
17/10/25ABe1 NFA Vs HI1-3
04/10/25ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs HI3-0
26/09/25HHI Vs Žalgiris II1-1
19/09/25AMinija Vs HI2-0
12/09/25HHI Vs FA Šiauliai II0-2
29/08/25APanevėžys II Vs HI0-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Atmosfera
Atmosfera
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWL1.62
HomeWWDWL1.37
AwayLDWWW1.91
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%41%57%
AVG goals2.723.222.13
Over 1.5 %70%78%61%
Over 2.5 %50%67%30%
Over 3.5 %28%41%13%
Scored1.601.671.52
Conceded1.121.560.61
BTTS46%59%30%
Clean Sheet34%19%52%
Corners---
Cards---
Hegelmann II
Hegelmann II
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDL1.06
HomeLLDLL1.44
AwayLLWLD0.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%44%16%
AVG goals2.922.803.04
Over 1.5 %82%72%92%
Over 2.5 %52%48%56%
Over 3.5 %30%28%32%
Scored1.141.281.00
Conceded1.781.522.04
BTTS46%44%48%
Clean Sheet20%28%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II719
86%
2.7
156+9
3.0
71%
43%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.10.9
-
2BabrungasBabrungas716
71%
2.3
123+9
2.1
71%
29%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.4
-
3BFABFA714
57%
2.0
157+8
3.1
71%
57%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.0
-
4Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda713
57%
1.9
1010+0
2.9
86%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
5MinijaMinija512
80%
2.4
142+12
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.4
-
6DainavaDainava69
33%
1.5
75+2
2.0
67%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.20.8
-
7Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II69
50%
1.5
1110+1
3.5
100%
83%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.7
-
8Be1 NFABe1 NFA69
50%
1.5
109+1
3.2
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.5
-
9TaurasTauras69
33%
1.5
98+1
2.8
83%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
10JonavaJonava69
50%
1.5
76+1
2.2
67%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
11FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II67
33%
1.2
69-3
2.5
67%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
12Hegelmann IIHegelmann II76
29%
0.9
818-10
3.7
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.6
-
13AtmosferaAtmosfera65
17%
0.8
811-3
3.2
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.8
-
14Transinvest 2Transinvest 274
14%
0.6
1116-5
3.9
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.3
-
15EkranasEkranas74
14%
0.6
621-15
3.9
100%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.0
-
16GarliavaGarliava60
0%
0.0
19-8
1.7
33%
17%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.21.5
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Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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