Atmosfera’s recent run of losses and a 1-3 defeat to Neptūnas Klaipėda suggest a fragile home side, while Jonava, fresh from a 2-1 victory over Transinvest 2, shows a potent away attack. The model favours an away win, with a 49% probability, a draw at 26%, and a home win at 25%. The expected total is 2.9 goals, centring on a 2-goal average. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.2% chance. Atmosfera typically scores 2.42 goals and concedes 1.33 at home against stronger opposition, whereas Jonava averages 3.12 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded on the road versus weaker teams. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99%), Under 6.5 (97%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.6%), Under 5.5 (92.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (90.2%), Away +2 handicap (89.3%), Home under 2.5 goals (88.0%) and Under 4.5 (82.7%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Atmosfera win
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jonava win
46.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Atmosfera
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.10
2.62
1.23
1.18
1.00
vs Stronger (25)
1.68
1.08
2.42
1.33
1.00
0.85
vs Similar (5)
2.40
1.20
5.00
0.00
1.75
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jonava
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.03
0.67
1.60
2.40
0.47
vs Stronger (9)
1.44
1.78
1.00
2.60
2.00
0.75
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.43
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (14)
2.00
0.86
0.50
1.33
3.12
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Atmosfera) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.4%
Under 1.5
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.0%
Under 2.5
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.7%
Under 3.5
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.4%
No
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
1-2
9.4%
0-1
8.1%
0-2
7.7%
2-1
7.0%
0-0
6.7%
2-2
5.8%
1-0
5.7%
Atmosfera goals ↓
Jonava goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
8.1%
7.7%
4.2%
1.8%
1
5.7%
13%
9.4%
5.2%
2.2%
2
4.2%
7.0%
5.8%
3.2%
1.3%
3
1.7%
2.9%
2.4%
1.3%
0.5%
4
0.5%
0.9%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Atmosfera goals (down), columns = Jonava goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Atmosfera is 0.67 points worse than Jonava in terms of average points per game (0.83 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Atmosfera is 0.17 goals better than Jonava in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Atmosfera is 0.83 goals worse than Jonava in terms of goals conceded per game (1.83 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Atmosfera or Draw
53.7%
Avg Implied -
27%
26%
46%
covers Atmosfera + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera or Jonava
73.5%
Avg Implied -
27%
26%
46%
covers Atmosfera + Jonava
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Jonava
72.8%
Avg Implied -
27%
26%
46%
covers Draw + Jonava
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Atmosfera over/under 0.5
Over
70.7%
Under
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 1.5
Over
34.7%
Under
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 2.5
Over
12.7%
Under
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 3.5
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 0.5
Over
80.9%
Under
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 1.5
Over
49.3%
Under
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 2.5
Over
23.1%
Under
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 3.5
Over
8.7%
Under
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Atmosfera, so a minus line means Atmosfera give that many goals of a start and Jonava receive them. At -1, Atmosfera must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Atmosfera win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Atmosfera)
Atmosfera -2
3.8%
Draw -2
7.9%
Jonava +2
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Atmosfera)
Atmosfera -1
11.7%
Draw -1
15.5%
Jonava +1
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Atmosfera)
Atmosfera +1
53.7%
Draw +1
21.3%
Jonava -1
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Atmosfera)
Atmosfera +2
75.1%
Draw +2
14.4%
Jonava -2
10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Atmosfera
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
1.08
0.46
0.47
0.35
vs Stronger (25)
0.68
0.48
1.08
0.50
0.31
0.46
vs Similar (5)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jonava
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.40
0.73
1.00
0.27
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.11
0.60
1.60
0.75
0.50
vs Similar (7)
0.29
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.36
0.17
0.50
1.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Atmosfera) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Atmosfera over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Atmosfera
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.70
1.54
0.77
0.71
0.65
vs Stronger (25)
1.00
0.60
1.33
0.83
0.69
0.38
vs Similar (5)
1.40
1.20
4.00
0.00
0.75
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jonava
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
0.27
0.87
1.40
0.20
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
0.67
0.40
1.00
1.25
0.25
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.43
0.00
0.75
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.07
0.50
0.33
0.83
1.62
0.25
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Atmosfera) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Atmosfera over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →