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Atmosfera vs Jonava Prediction & Stats

Date: 24/10/2026
Time: 12:00
Atmosfera
Atmosfera
Vs
27%
26%
46%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Jonava
Jonava
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Atmosfera’s recent run of losses and a 1-3 defeat to Neptūnas Klaipėda suggest a fragile home side, while Jonava, fresh from a 2-1 victory over Transinvest 2, shows a potent away attack. The model favours an away win, with a 49% probability, a draw at 26%, and a home win at 25%. The expected total is 2.9 goals, centring on a 2-goal average. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.2% chance. Atmosfera typically scores 2.42 goals and concedes 1.33 at home against stronger opposition, whereas Jonava averages 3.12 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded on the road versus weaker teams. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99%), Under 6.5 (97%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.6%), Under 5.5 (92.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (90.2%), Away +2 handicap (89.3%), Home under 2.5 goals (88.0%) and Under 4.5 (82.7%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Atmosfera win
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jonava win
46.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AtmosferaAtmosfera

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D20W21W03L41W13L11D02L11D13LH·BFA09/11A·FK 11/04H·FK 21/04H·PAN20/05H·HEG25/07A·KAU01/08H·FA 08/08A·TRA14/08A·DAI22/08A·NEP29/08
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.801.102.621.231.181.00
vs Stronger (25)1.681.082.421.331.000.85
vs Similar (5)2.401.205.000.001.751.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JonavaJonava

Last 10 – goals for & against
160-1600D02L160W04L10W20W12L12L01L21WA·ŽAL31/10H·EKR09/11A·UTE14/04H·ŠIA29/04H·GAR25/07A·BE131/07H·EKR07/08A·KAU14/08H·FA 21/08A·TRA29/08
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.030.671.602.400.47
vs Stronger (9)1.441.781.002.602.000.75
vs Similar (7)0.710.430.500.751.000.00
vs Weaker (14)2.000.860.501.333.120.50
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Atmosfera) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.4%
Under 1.5
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.0%
Under 2.5
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.7%
Under 3.5
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.4%
No
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
1-2
9.4%
0-1
8.1%
0-2
7.7%
2-1
7.0%
0-0
6.7%
2-2
5.8%
1-0
5.7%
Atmosfera goals ↓
Jonava goals →
01234
06.7%8.1%7.7%4.2%1.8%
15.7%13%9.4%5.2%2.2%
24.2%7.0%5.8%3.2%1.3%
31.7%2.9%2.4%1.3%0.5%
40.5%0.9%0.7%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Atmosfera goals (down), columns = Jonava goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Atmosfera is 0.67 points worse than Jonava in terms of average points per game (0.83 vs 1.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Atmosfera is 0.17 goals better than Jonava in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.17).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Atmosfera is 0.83 goals worse than Jonava in terms of goals conceded per game (1.83 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Atmosfera or Draw
53.7%
Avg Implied -
27%
26%
46%
covers Atmosfera + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera or Jonava
73.5%
Avg Implied -
27%
26%
46%
covers Atmosfera + Jonava
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Jonava
72.8%
Avg Implied -
27%
26%
46%
covers Draw + Jonava
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Atmosfera over/under 0.5
Over
70.7%
Under
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 1.5
Over
34.7%
Under
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 2.5
Over
12.7%
Under
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 3.5
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 0.5
Over
80.9%
Under
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 1.5
Over
49.3%
Under
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 2.5
Over
23.1%
Under
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 3.5
Over
8.7%
Under
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Atmosfera, so a minus line means Atmosfera give that many goals of a start and Jonava receive them. At -1, Atmosfera must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Atmosfera win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Atmosfera)
Atmosfera -2
3.8%
Draw -2
7.9%
Jonava +2
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Atmosfera)
Atmosfera -1
11.7%
Draw -1
15.5%
Jonava +1
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Atmosfera)
Atmosfera +1
53.7%
Draw +1
21.3%
Jonava -1
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Atmosfera)
Atmosfera +2
75.1%
Draw +2
14.4%
Jonava -2
10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AtmosferaAtmosfera

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L10W01L01L10W10W11D00D11D01LH·BFA09/11A·FK 11/04H·FK 21/04H·PAN20/05H·HEG25/07A·KAU01/08H·FA 08/08A·TRA14/08A·DAI22/08A·NEP29/08
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.401.080.460.470.35
vs Stronger (25)0.680.481.080.500.310.46
vs Similar (5)1.000.001.000.001.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JonavaJonava

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
80-800D00D80W03L00D00D01L10W01L11DA·ŽAL31/10H·EKR09/11A·UTE14/04H·ŠIA29/04H·GAR25/07A·BE131/07H·EKR07/08A·KAU14/08H·FA 21/08A·TRA29/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.500.400.731.000.27
vs Stronger (9)0.671.110.601.600.750.50
vs Similar (7)0.290.000.500.000.000.00
vs Weaker (14)0.930.360.170.501.500.25
Clean sheet %67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Atmosfera) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Atmosfera over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AtmosferaAtmosfera

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W10W20W02L31W03L00D02L00D12LH·BFA09/11A·FK 11/04H·FK 21/04H·PAN20/05H·HEG25/07A·KAU01/08H·FA 08/08A·TRA14/08A·DAI22/08A·NEP29/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.701.540.770.710.65
vs Stronger (25)1.000.601.330.830.690.38
vs Similar (5)1.401.204.000.000.751.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JonavaJonava

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
80-800D02L80W01L10W20W11D02L00D10WA·ŽAL31/10H·EKR09/11A·UTE14/04H·ŠIA29/04H·GAR25/07A·BE131/07H·EKR07/08A·KAU14/08H·FA 21/08A·TRA29/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.530.270.871.400.20
vs Stronger (9)0.780.670.401.001.250.25
vs Similar (7)0.430.430.000.751.000.00
vs Weaker (14)1.070.500.330.831.620.25
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Atmosfera) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Atmosfera over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.0%-------
Under 6.597.2%-------
Home under 3.5 goals96.4%-------
Under 5.592.7%-------
Away under 3.5 goals91.3%-------
Away +2 handicap88.3%-------
Home under 2.5 goals87.3%-------
Under 4.583.4%-------
Away over 0.5 goals80.9%-------
Over 1.579.4%-------
Away under 2.5 goals76.9%-------
Home +2 handicap75.1%-------
Home or Away73.5%-------
Draw or Away72.8%-------
Away +1 handicap72.8%-------
Home over 0.5 goals70.7%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
T2 (2)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
2
ATM wins
0
Draws
1
JON wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Atmosfera vs Jonava · H/A from ATM
DateH/AGameScore
25/10/25AJonava Vs ATM0-2
17/06/25HATM Vs Jonava0-1
22/05/24AJonava Vs ATM0-2

AtmosferaAtmosfera

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs ATM3-1
22/08/26ADainava Vs ATM1-1
14/08/26ATransinvest 2 Vs ATM2-0
08/08/26HATM Vs FA Šiauliai II1-1
01/08/26AKauno Žalgiris II Vs ATM3-1
25/07/26HATM Vs Hegelmann II4-1
20/05/26HATM Vs Panevėžys0-3
21/04/26HATM Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius2-1
11/04/26AFK Ketera Vs ATM0-2
09/11/25HATM Vs BFA2-2

JonavaJonava

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26ATransinvest 2 Vs JON1-2
21/08/26HJON Vs FA Šiauliai II0-1
14/08/26AKauno Žalgiris II Vs JON2-1
07/08/26HJON Vs Ekranas1-2
31/07/26ABe1 NFA Vs JON0-2
25/07/26HJON Vs Garliava1-0
29/04/26HJON Vs Šiauliai0-4
14/04/26AUtenos Utena Vs JON0-16
09/11/25HJON Vs Ekranas0-2
31/10/25AŽalgiris II Vs JON0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Atmosfera
Atmosfera
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLDL1.46
HomeDWLWD1.28
AwayWLLDL1.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%36%48%
AVG goals2.863.402.32
Over 1.5 %76%84%68%
Over 2.5 %52%68%36%
Over 3.5 %32%44%20%
Scored1.641.841.44
Conceded1.221.560.88
BTTS52%68%36%
Clean Sheet28%12%44%
Corners---
Cards---
Jonava
Jonava
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLW1.36
HomeLLWLL0.88
AwayDWWLW1.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%21%54%
AVG goals2.622.422.81
Over 1.5 %66%71%62%
Over 2.5 %42%38%46%
Over 3.5 %24%25%23%
Scored1.400.752.00
Conceded1.221.670.81
BTTS40%42%38%
Clean Sheet34%21%46%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II719
86%
2.7
156+9
3.0
71%
43%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.10.9
-
2BabrungasBabrungas716
71%
2.3
123+9
2.1
71%
29%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.4
-
3BFABFA714
57%
2.0
157+8
3.1
71%
57%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.0
-
4Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda713
57%
1.9
1010+0
2.9
86%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
5MinijaMinija512
80%
2.4
142+12
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.4
-
6DainavaDainava69
33%
1.5
75+2
2.0
67%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.20.8
-
7Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II69
50%
1.5
1110+1
3.5
100%
83%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.7
-
8Be1 NFABe1 NFA69
50%
1.5
109+1
3.2
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.5
-
9TaurasTauras69
33%
1.5
98+1
2.8
83%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
10JonavaJonava69
50%
1.5
76+1
2.2
67%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
11FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II67
33%
1.2
69-3
2.5
67%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
12Hegelmann IIHegelmann II76
29%
0.9
818-10
3.7
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.6
-
13AtmosferaAtmosfera65
17%
0.8
811-3
3.2
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.8
-
14Transinvest 2Transinvest 274
14%
0.6
1116-5
3.9
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.3
-
15EkranasEkranas74
14%
0.6
621-15
3.9
100%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.0
-
16GarliavaGarliava60
0%
0.0
19-8
1.7
33%
17%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.21.5
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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