Atmosfera will face Tauras in a fixture that the model deems most likely to end in an away win. The odds favour the visitors, with a 53% chance of victory, a 25% chance of a draw and a 22% chance of a home win. The expected total of 2.9 goals suggests a moderately high-scoring affair, though the most probable total is two goals, with a 24% probability. The single scoreline the model sees as most likely is 1-1, carrying a 12% chance.
At home, Atmosfera has averaged 2.42 goals scored and 1.33 conceded against stronger opposition, while Tauras, on the road against weaker teams, averages 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded. Recent form shows Atmosfera coming off a 1-3 loss to Neptūnų Klaipėda, whereas Tauras ended their last match with a 2-2 draw against BFA.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 99%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.7%, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.3%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.3%, Under 6.5 at 97.0%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.0%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 94.0% and Under 5.5 at 92.4%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Atmosfera win
22.2%
Avg Implied 33.5% · @ 2.71
Edge
-11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.80
1xBet
2.74
Dafabet
2.70
Unibet
2.60
Draw
25.2%
Avg Implied 25.5% · @ 3.56
Edge
-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.70
1xBet
3.55
Dafabet
3.55
Unibet
3.45
Tauras win
52.6%
Avg Implied 40.9% · @ 2.22
Edge
+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.25
1xBet
2.25
Dafabet
2.23
Betfair
2.15
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Atmosfera
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.10
2.62
1.23
1.18
1.00
vs Stronger (25)
1.68
1.08
2.42
1.33
1.00
0.85
vs Similar (5)
2.40
1.20
5.00
0.00
1.75
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tauras
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.17
1.53
1.60
1.73
0.73
vs Stronger (8)
2.12
1.38
1.33
2.67
2.60
0.60
vs Similar (7)
1.00
1.43
0.67
2.33
1.25
0.75
vs Weaker (15)
1.67
0.93
1.89
1.00
1.33
0.83
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Atmosfera) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.0%
@ 1.13-4.2%
Under 1.5
20.0%
@ 6.00+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.13
Under
Betfair
6.00
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.9%
@ 1.46-7.4%
Under 2.5
44.1%
@ 2.52+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.47
Unibet
1.45
Under
Betfair
2.63
Unibet
2.40
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
33.5%
@ 2.19-8.7%
Under 3.5
66.5%
@ 1.60+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.25
Unibet
2.14
Under
Betfair
1.62
Unibet
1.58
Both teams to score
Yes
57.2%
@ 1.40-9.1%
No
42.8%
@ 2.75+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.40
No
Betfair
2.75
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%@ 6.50+2.5%
1-2
9.8%@ 7.00+1.1%
0-2
8.8%@ 11.00+3.3%
0-1
8.7%@ 10.00+2.6%
0-0
6.5%@ 15.00+2.4%
2-1
6.0%@ 8.50-1.2%
1-3
5.9%@ 12.00+0.8%
2-2
5.5%@ 8.50-1.7%
Atmosfera goals ↓
Tauras goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
8.7%
8.8%
5.3%
2.4%
1
4.9%
12%
9.8%
5.9%
2.7%
2
3.3%
6.0%
5.5%
3.3%
1.5%
3
1.2%
2.2%
2.0%
1.2%
0.6%
4
0.3%
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Atmosfera goals (down), columns = Tauras goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Atmosfera is 0.67 points worse than Tauras in terms of average points per game (0.83 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Atmosfera is 0.17 goals worse than Tauras in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Atmosfera is 0.50 goals worse than Tauras in terms of goals conceded per game (1.83 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Atmosfera or Draw
47.4%
Avg Implied 59.2% · @ 1.52
Edge
-11.8%
22%
25%
53%
covers Atmosfera + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.57
Unibet
1.47
Atmosfera or Tauras
74.8%
Avg Implied 74.4% · @ 1.21
Edge
+0.4%
22%
25%
53%
covers Atmosfera + Tauras
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.22
Unibet
1.20
Draw or Tauras
77.8%
Avg Implied 66.4% · @ 1.35
Edge
+11.4%
22%
25%
53%
covers Draw + Tauras
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.36
Unibet
1.35
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Atmosfera over/under 0.5
Over
67.1%
Under
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 1.5
Over
30.5%
@ 1.89-17.0%
Under
69.5%
@ 1.71+17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.89
Under
Unibet
1.71
Atmosfera over/under 2.5
Over
10.2%
Under
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 0.5
Over
83.6%
Under
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5
Over
54.0%
@ 1.75+2.7%
Under
46.0%
@ 1.84-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.75
Under
Unibet
1.84
Tauras over/under 2.5
Over
27.2%
Under
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 3.5
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Atmosfera, so a minus line means Atmosfera give that many goals of a start and Tauras receive them. At -1, Atmosfera must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Atmosfera win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Atmosfera)
Atmosfera -2
2.6%
Draw -2
6.2%
Tauras +2
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Atmosfera)
Atmosfera -1
8.8%
@ 4.00-11.0%
Draw -1
13.3%
@ 3.75-7.9%
Tauras +1
77.8%
@ 1.35+18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
4.00
Draw
Unibet
3.75
Away
Unibet
1.35
Handicap +1 (Atmosfera)
Atmosfera +1
47.4%
@ 1.52-8.1%
Draw +1
22.4%
@ 3.85+0.5%
Tauras -1
30.2%
@ 3.73+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.57
Unibet
1.47
Draw
Betfair
4.20
Unibet
3.50
Away
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
3.45
Handicap +2 (Atmosfera)
Atmosfera +2
69.8%
Draw +2
16.4%
Tauras -2
13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Atmosfera
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
1.08
0.46
0.47
0.35
vs Stronger (25)
0.68
0.48
1.08
0.50
0.31
0.46
vs Similar (5)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tauras
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.63
0.40
0.93
0.80
0.33
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
0.62
0.33
1.67
1.60
0.00
vs Similar (7)
0.29
1.00
0.00
1.67
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (15)
0.47
0.47
0.56
0.44
0.33
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Atmosfera) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.8%
@ 1.22-5.6%
Under 0.5
30.2%
@ 3.75+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.22
Under
Betfair
3.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.6%
@ 2.12-9.6%
Under 1.5
66.4%
@ 1.61+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.20
Unibet
2.04
Under
Betfair
1.62
Unibet
1.60
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.1%
@ 5.00-6.5%
Under 2.5
87.9%
@ 1.14+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.00
Under
Betfair
1.14
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Atmosfera over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.9%
Under
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 0.5 HT
Over
46.0%
Under
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Atmosfera
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.70
1.54
0.77
0.71
0.65
vs Stronger (25)
1.00
0.60
1.33
0.83
0.69
0.38
vs Similar (5)
1.40
1.20
4.00
0.00
0.75
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tauras
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.53
1.13
0.67
0.93
0.40
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.60
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.43
0.67
0.67
0.75
0.25
vs Weaker (15)
1.20
0.47
1.33
0.56
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Atmosfera) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.9%
Under 0.5
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
45.0%
Under 1.5
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.9%
Under 2.5
81.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Atmosfera over/under 0.5 2H
Over
49.9%
Under
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.8%
Under
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.0%
Under
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.2%
Under
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.4%
1.08
Betfair
1.08
-
-
-
-
+5.0%
Away +2 handicap
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.9%
1.14
Betfair
1.14
-
-
-
-
+6.5%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
82.8%
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Unibet
1.22
-
-
-
+7.1%
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.0%
1.13
Betfair
1.13
-
-
-
-
-4.2%
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
77.8%
1.35
Betfair
1.36
Unibet
1.35
-
-
-
+11.4%
Away +1 handicap
77.8%
1.35
Unibet
1.35
-
-
-
-
+18.9%
Home or Away
74.8%
1.21
Betfair
1.22
Unibet
1.20
-
-
-
+0.4%
Away under 2.5 goals
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Atmosfera and Tauras have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Atmosfera and Tauras have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Atmosfera and Tauras have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
T2 (2)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Atmosfera and Tauras have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
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Žalgiris II
Babrungas
BFA
Neptūną Klaipėda
Minija
Dainava
Kauno Žalgiris II
Be1 NFA
Jonava
FA Šiauliai II
Hegelmann II
Transinvest 2
Ekranas
Garliava