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Auda vs BFC Daugavpils Result & Analysis

Date: 20/07/2025
Time: 12:00
Final 1-3
Auda
Auda
Vs
63%
23%
14%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Auda win✗ Miss
62.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils win✓ Hit
14.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AudaAuda

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D41W42W21W01L13L10W20W00D22DA·FK 24/05H·MET29/05A·TUK13/06A·GRO18/06A·RĪG22/06H·RIG27/06A·SUP01/07H·FS 05/07A·LAR10/07H·LAR16/07
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.700.972.140.861.311.06
vs Stronger (7)1.001.861.002.671.001.25
vs Similar (10)1.400.902.000.751.001.00
vs Weaker (13)2.310.542.710.141.831.00
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-710W14L11D22D12L32W17L11D10W24LH·FS 25/05A·SUP01/06A·FK 13/06A·MET17/06H·TUK21/06H·GRO26/06H·RĪG30/06A·RIG06/07A·VLL10/07H·VLL17/07
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.402.071.532.121.232.00
vs Stronger (9)1.003.110.833.501.332.33
vs Similar (18)1.561.722.001.561.111.89
vs Weaker (3)1.671.001.500.502.002.00
Clean sheet %17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.8%
Under 1.5
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.9%
Under 2.5
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.7%
Under 3.5
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.6%
No
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.8%
1-0
11.0%
1-1
11.0%
2-1
9.8%
3-0
7.7%
0-0
7.1%
3-1
6.4%
1-2
4.2%
Auda goals ↓
BFC Daugavpils goals →
01234
07.1%4.1%2.1%0.6%0.1%
111%11%4.2%1.2%0.2%
212%9.8%4.1%1.1%0.2%
37.7%6.4%2.7%0.7%0.2%
43.8%3.1%1.3%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Auda goals (down), columns = BFC Daugavpils goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Riga
2.44
Rīgas FS
2.42
FK Liepaja
1.69
BFC Daugavpils
1.33
Auda
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.06
Tukums
1.00
Grobiņa
0.95
Super Nova
0.89
Metta / LU
0.86
JDFS Alberts
0.50
Auda is 0.08 points worse than BFC Daugavpils in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 1.33).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.78
Riga
2.36
FK Liepaja
1.64
BFC Daugavpils
1.44
Super Nova
1.22
Auda
1.22
FS Jelgava
1.08
Metta / LU
1.08
Tukums
1.08
Grobiņa
0.89
JDFS Alberts
0.00
Auda is 0.22 goals worse than BFC Daugavpils in terms of goals scored per game (1.22 vs 1.44).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
JDFS Alberts
0.50
Riga
0.72
Rīgas FS
1.08
FS Jelgava
1.28
Auda
1.36
FK Liepaja
1.53
Super Nova
1.56
Grobiņa
1.68
BFC Daugavpils
1.72
Tukums
1.75
Metta / LU
2.06
Auda is 0.36 goals better than BFC Daugavpils in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 1.72).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AudaAuda

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D21W11D00D02L00D10W00D10WA·FK 24/05H·MET29/05A·TUK13/06A·GRO18/06A·RĪG22/06H·RIG27/06A·SUP01/07H·FS 05/07A·LAR10/07H·LAR16/07
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.600.790.570.380.62
vs Stronger (7)0.001.290.002.330.000.50
vs Similar (10)0.500.401.000.000.170.67
vs Weaker (13)0.920.381.000.140.830.67
Clean sheet %57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W03L01L21W02L12L12L10W00D22DH·FS 25/05A·SUP01/06A·FK 13/06A·MET17/06H·TUK21/06H·GRO26/06H·RĪG30/06A·RIG06/07A·VLL10/07H·VLL17/07
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.900.760.880.540.92
vs Stronger (9)0.331.220.331.500.330.67
vs Similar (18)0.720.831.000.670.441.00
vs Weaker (3)1.330.331.000.002.001.00
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Auda over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AudaAuda

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D30W21W10W01L11D10W10W00D12LA·FK 24/05H·MET29/05A·TUK13/06A·GRO18/06A·RĪG22/06H·RIG27/06A·SUP01/07H·FS 05/07A·LAR10/07H·LAR16/07
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.371.360.290.940.44
vs Stronger (7)1.000.571.000.331.000.75
vs Similar (10)0.900.501.000.750.830.33
vs Weaker (13)1.380.151.710.001.000.33
Clean sheet %70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D11D10W01L10W20W05L01L10W02LH·FS 25/05A·SUP01/06A·FK 13/06A·MET17/06H·TUK21/06H·GRO26/06H·RĪG30/06A·RIG06/07A·VLL10/07H·VLL17/07
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.731.170.761.240.691.08
vs Stronger (9)0.671.890.502.001.001.67
vs Similar (18)0.830.891.000.890.670.89
vs Weaker (3)0.330.670.500.500.001.00
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Auda over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
Auda's squad is €3m more valuable than BFC Daugavpils's (€6m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
Auda's attack is €2m more valuable than BFC Daugavpils's (€3m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
Auda and BFC Daugavpils have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
Auda's defence is €2m more valuable than BFC Daugavpils's (€3m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
6
AUD wins
1
Draws
1
BD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Auda vs BFC Daugavpils · H/A from AUD
DateH/AGameScore
20/05/25HAUD Vs BFC Daugavpils1-1
04/04/25ABFC Daugavpils Vs AUD2-1
26/10/24ABFC Daugavpils Vs AUD1-2
04/08/24HAUD Vs BFC Daugavpils1-0
28/05/24ABFC Daugavpils Vs AUD0-3
17/04/24HAUD Vs BFC Daugavpils1-0
11/11/23HAUD Vs BFC Daugavpils1-0
27/08/23ABFC Daugavpils Vs AUD0-2

AudaAuda

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/07/25HAUD Vs Larne2-2
10/07/25ALarne Vs AUD0-0
05/07/25HAUD Vs FS Jelgava2-0
01/07/25ASuper Nova Vs AUD0-1
27/06/25HAUD Vs Riga1-3
22/06/25ARīgas FS Vs AUD1-0
18/06/25AGrobiņa Vs AUD1-2
13/06/25ATukums Vs AUD2-4
29/05/25HAUD Vs Metta / LU4-1
24/05/25AFK Liepaja Vs AUD0-0

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/07/25HBD Vs Vllaznia Shkodër2-4
10/07/25AVllaznia Shkodër Vs BD0-1
06/07/25ARiga Vs BD1-1
30/06/25HBD Vs Rīgas FS1-7
26/06/25HBD Vs Grobiņa3-2
21/06/25HBD Vs Tukums1-2
17/06/25AMetta / LU Vs BD2-2
13/06/25AFK Liepaja Vs BD1-1
01/06/25ASuper Nova Vs BD4-1
25/05/25HBD Vs FS Jelgava1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Auda
Auda
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWDD1.90
HomeDWLWD2.00
AwayWWLWD1.79
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %58%62%54%
AVG goals2.602.622.58
Over 1.5 %72%81%62%
Over 2.5 %50%42%58%
Over 3.5 %30%31%29%
Scored1.721.851.58
Conceded0.880.771.00
BTTS44%35%54%
Clean Sheet44%58%29%
Corners---
Cards---
BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDWL1.08
HomeWLWLL1.32
AwayLDDDW0.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%40%16%
AVG goals3.363.683.04
Over 1.5 %82%92%72%
Over 2.5 %64%72%56%
Over 3.5 %42%40%44%
Scored1.361.681.04
Conceded2.002.002.00
BTTS58%52%64%
Clean Sheet20%24%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1RigaRiga3688
75%
2.4
8526+59
3.1
81%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7362.40.7
-
2Rīgas FSRīgas FS3687
78%
2.4
10039+61
3.9
78%
72%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.81.1
-
3FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3661
50%
1.7
5955+4
3.2
83%
69%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.61.5
-
4BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3648
36%
1.3
5262-10
3.2
78%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.7
-
5AudaAuda3645
36%
1.2
4449-5
2.6
67%
44%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.21.4
-
6FS JelgavaFS Jelgava3638
22%
1.1
3946-7
2.4
69%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.11.3
-
7TukumsTukums3636
25%
1.0
3963-24
2.8
75%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.8
-
8GrobiņaGrobiņa3836
24%
0.9
3464-30
2.6
68%
37%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.91.7
-
9Super NovaSuper Nova3632
17%
0.9
4456-12
2.8
81%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.6
-
10Metta / LUMetta / LU3631
22%
0.9
3974-35
3.1
78%
58%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.1
-
11JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts21
0%
0.5
01-1
0.5
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.5
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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