Auda are tipped to win in a tight Virsliga encounter, with the model favouring a home victory at 59% while a draw sits at 24% and an away win at 17%. The match is expected to see about 2.8 goals, but the most probable total is two, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.5% chance. Auda, playing at home against a weaker side, average 1.5 goals scored and 0.83 conceded, whereas FS Jelgava, on the road against a stronger opponent, average 1.2 goals scored and 2.2 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 at 99.2%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.5%, Under 6.5 at 97.5%, Home +2 handicap at 94.1%, Away under 2.5 goals at 93.3%, Under 5.5 at 93.3%, Home under 3.5 goals at 87.5%, and Home over 0.5 goals at 85.0%. Auda’s recent draw after a mixed run and FS Jelgava’s two-game winning streak add intrigue to a match likely to see both sides find the net.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Auda win
55.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava win
19.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Auda
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.37
1.12
1.12
0.71
1.64
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
2.33
0.33
2.00
0.33
2.67
vs Similar (13)
0.92
1.31
1.14
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (11)
1.27
0.91
1.50
0.83
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FS Jelgava
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.47
0.71
1.21
1.31
1.69
vs Stronger (13)
0.77
1.77
0.50
1.50
1.20
2.20
vs Similar (14)
1.07
1.14
0.50
0.50
1.30
1.40
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
1.67
2.00
1.50
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.4%
Under 1.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
52.2%
Under 2.5
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
30.0%
Under 3.5
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.9%
No
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
1-0
10.2%
2-0
10.1%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.4%
3-0
6.1%
3-1
5.9%
1-2
5.3%
Auda goals ↓
FS Jelgava goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
5.0%
3.0%
1.0%
0.2%
1
10%
12%
5.3%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10%
9.8%
4.8%
1.5%
0.4%
3
6.1%
5.9%
2.9%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.7%
2.6%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Auda goals (down), columns = FS Jelgava goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.43
Riga
2.29
Auda
2.00
FK Liepaja
1.88
BFC Daugavpils
1.62
Super Nova
1.33
Grobiņa
1.00
FS Jelgava
0.86
Ogre United
0.57
Tukums
0.38
Auda is 1.14 points better than FS Jelgava in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Riga
3.00
Rīgas FS
2.57
FK Liepaja
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.50
Super Nova
1.17
Grobiņa
1.14
FS Jelgava
1.14
Auda
1.14
Ogre United
1.00
Tukums
0.75
Auda and FS Jelgava are level in goals scored per game (both 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Auda
0.57
Rīgas FS
0.86
BFC Daugavpils
0.88
Super Nova
1.00
Riga
1.14
FK Liepaja
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.71
Tukums
2.38
Grobiņa
2.57
Ogre United
3.00
Auda is 1.14 goals better than FS Jelgava in terms of goals conceded per game (0.57 vs 1.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Auda or Draw
80.9%
Avg Implied -
56%
25%
19%
covers Auda + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Auda or FS Jelgava
74.7%
Avg Implied -
56%
25%
19%
covers Auda + FS Jelgava
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FS Jelgava
44.4%
Avg Implied -
56%
25%
19%
covers Draw + FS Jelgava
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Auda over/under 0.5
Over
83.4%
Under
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 1.5
Over
53.6%
Under
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 2.5
Over
26.8%
Under
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 3.5
Over
10.8%
Under
89.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 0.5
Over
62.1%
Under
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 1.5
Over
25.4%
Under
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 2.5
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 3.5
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Auda, so a minus line means Auda give that many goals of a start and FS Jelgava receive them. At -1, Auda must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Auda win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Auda)
Auda -2
14.8%
Draw -2
17.5%
FS Jelgava +2
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Auda)
Auda -1
32.3%
Draw -1
23.3%
FS Jelgava +1
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Auda)
Auda +1
80.9%
Draw +1
12.1%
FS Jelgava -1
7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Auda)
Auda +2
93.0%
Draw +2
5.1%
FS Jelgava -2
1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Auda
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.53
0.50
0.44
0.43
0.64
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.33
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.46
0.43
0.14
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (11)
0.73
0.36
0.83
0.33
0.60
0.40
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FS Jelgava
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.80
0.29
0.64
0.62
0.94
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
0.92
0.00
0.75
1.00
1.20
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.71
0.50
0.25
0.40
0.90
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Auda over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Auda
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.83
0.62
0.69
0.29
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.33
0.33
0.67
0.33
2.00
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.85
0.71
0.86
0.17
0.83
vs Weaker (11)
0.55
0.55
0.67
0.50
0.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FS Jelgava
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.67
0.43
0.57
0.69
0.75
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
0.85
0.50
0.75
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.43
0.00
0.25
0.90
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Auda over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
Auda's squad is €3m more valuable than FS Jelgava's (€6m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
OU (12)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
Auda's attack is €2m more valuable than FS Jelgava's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
Auda and FS Jelgava have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
OU (11)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
Auda's defence is €1m more valuable than FS Jelgava's (€3m vs €1m).
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rīgas FS
Riga
FK Liepaja
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
Grobiņa
Ogre United
Tukums