Auda enter the match as clear favourites, the model rating them 75% to win, 18% for a draw and 7% for a Grobiņa win. The prediction that a home win is most likely reflects Auda’s solid home form - they average 1.14 goals scored and concede only 1.0 against similarly-matched opponents - while Grobiņa, playing away, average 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a moderate-scoring game, with the single most likely scoreline 2-0 for Auda, a 14.5% chance. The model’s suggested picks highlight a very low probability of a high-scoring affair: “Away under 3.5 goals” at 99.7%, “Under 7.5” at 99.0%, “Under 6.5” at 97.2% with a 5% edge, and “Home +2 handicap” at 98.1%. Other selections include “Away under 2.5 HT goals” 99.2%, “Away under 2.5 2H goals” 98.6%, “Away under 2.5 goals” 97.6%, and “Home under 2.5 HT goals” 95.3% with a 5% edge. Auda’s recent draw against Super Nova and Grobiņa’s win over BFC Daugavpils add context, but the venue advantage and defensive solidity keep the home side ahead.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Auda win
74.7%
Avg Implied 66.3% · @ 1.36
Edge
+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.43
1xBet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.30
Draw
17.9%
Avg Implied 20.3% · @ 4.46
Edge
-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.70
Betfair
4.60
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.20
Grobiņa win
7.4%
Avg Implied 13.4% · @ 6.78
Edge
-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
7.50
1xBet
7.50
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
5.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Auda
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.37
1.12
1.12
0.71
1.64
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
2.33
0.33
2.00
0.33
2.67
vs Similar (13)
0.92
1.31
1.14
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (11)
1.27
0.91
1.50
0.83
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grobiņa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.87
1.14
1.21
0.62
2.44
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
3.62
1.00
2.00
0.20
4.60
vs Similar (15)
1.00
1.53
1.29
1.29
0.75
1.75
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.57
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.1%
@ 1.21+2.4%
Under 1.5
20.9%
@ 4.00-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.20
Under
Bet365
4.00
1xBet
4.00
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.2%
@ 1.63-1.7%
Under 2.5
44.8%
@ 2.15+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.70
1xBet
1.68
Unibet
1.50
Under
Unibet
2.28
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.06
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.8%
@ 2.53-3.5%
Under 3.5
67.2%
@ 1.44+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.75
1xBet
2.60
Unibet
2.25
Under
Unibet
1.50
1xBet
1.43
Bet365
1.40
Both teams to score
Yes
41.6%
@ 1.85-8.4%
No
58.4%
@ 1.85+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
1.93
Unibet
1.62
No
Unibet
2.02
1xBet
1.80
Bet365
1.73
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
14.5%@ 5.83+7.4%
1-0
11.9%@ 6.33+5.4%
3-0
11.0%@ 8.00+5.9%
2-1
8.8%@ 7.33+3.1%
1-1
8.5%@ 8.00+3.3%
3-1
6.7%@ 10.00+2.6%
0-0
6.3%@ 12.50+3.0%
4-0
6.3%@ 13.67+3.3%
Auda goals ↓
Grobiņa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
2.6%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
1
12%
8.5%
2.3%
0.5%
0.1%
2
15%
8.8%
2.7%
0.5%
0.1%
3
11%
6.7%
2.0%
0.4%
0.1%
4
6.3%
3.8%
1.2%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Auda goals (down), columns = Grobiņa goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.43
Riga
2.29
Auda
2.00
FK Liepaja
1.88
BFC Daugavpils
1.62
Super Nova
1.33
Grobiņa
1.00
FS Jelgava
0.86
Ogre United
0.57
Tukums
0.38
Auda is 1.00 points better than Grobiņa in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Riga
3.00
Rīgas FS
2.57
FK Liepaja
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.50
Super Nova
1.17
Grobiņa
1.14
FS Jelgava
1.14
Auda
1.14
Ogre United
1.00
Tukums
0.75
Auda and Grobiņa are level in goals scored per game (both 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Auda
0.57
Rīgas FS
0.86
BFC Daugavpils
0.88
Super Nova
1.00
Riga
1.14
FK Liepaja
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.71
Tukums
2.38
Grobiņa
2.57
Ogre United
3.00
Auda is 2.00 goals better than Grobiņa in terms of goals conceded per game (0.57 vs 2.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Auda or Draw
92.6%
Avg Implied 86.3% · @ 1.06
Edge
+6.2%
75%
18%
7%
covers Auda + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Auda or Grobiņa
82.1%
Avg Implied 80.5% · @ 1.14
Edge
+1.6%
75%
18%
7%
covers Auda + Grobiņa
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Draw or Grobiņa
25.3%
Avg Implied 33.2% · @ 2.77
Edge
-7.9%
75%
18%
7%
covers Draw + Grobiņa
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.10
1xBet
2.90
Bet365
2.75
Unibet
2.33
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Auda over/under 0.5
Over
89.8%
@ 1.06+2.7%
Under
10.2%
@ 7.20-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Under
Betfair
7.50
1xBet
6.90
Auda over/under 1.5
Over
66.5%
@ 1.45+3.0%
Under
33.5%
@ 2.52-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.48
Betfair
1.44
Unibet
1.42
Under
Betfair
2.63
1xBet
2.47
Unibet
2.45
Auda over/under 2.5
Over
40.0%
@ 2.43+2.1%
Under
60.0%
@ 1.48-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.50
1xBet
2.50
Unibet
2.28
Under
Betfair
1.50
Unibet
1.48
1xBet
1.46
Auda over/under 3.5
Over
19.7%
@ 5.00+1.3%
Under
80.3%
@ 1.13-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.00
1xBet
5.00
Under
Betfair
1.14
1xBet
1.12
Grobiņa over/under 0.5
Over
45.4%
@ 1.62-11.3%
Under
54.6%
@ 2.13+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.72
Betfair
1.67
Unibet
1.48
Under
Unibet
2.28
Betfair
2.10
1xBet
2.00
Grobiņa over/under 1.5
Over
12.4%
@ 4.60-7.7%
Under
87.6%
@ 1.16+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.00
1xBet
4.20
Under
1xBet
1.17
Betfair
1.14
Grobiņa over/under 2.5
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 3.5
Over
0.3%
Under
99.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Auda, so a minus line means Auda give that many goals of a start and Grobiņa receive them. At -1, Auda must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Auda win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Auda)
Auda -2
29.2%
@ 3.25+4.8%
Draw -2
22.5%
@ 3.50-0.2%
Grobiņa +2
48.3%
@ 1.50-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
3.25
Draw
Unibet
3.50
Away
Unibet
1.50
Handicap -1 (Auda)
Auda -1
51.7%
@ 1.99+9.2%
Draw -1
23.0%
@ 3.25-2.9%
Grobiņa +1
25.3%
@ 2.67-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.00
Unibet
1.97
Draw
Betfair
3.40
Unibet
3.10
Away
Betfair
3.00
Unibet
2.33
Handicap +1 (Auda)
Auda +1
92.6%
Draw +1
5.5%
Grobiņa -1
1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Auda)
Auda +2
98.1%
Draw +2
1.6%
Grobiņa -2
0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Auda
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.53
0.50
0.44
0.43
0.64
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.33
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.46
0.43
0.14
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (11)
0.73
0.36
0.83
0.33
0.60
0.40
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grobiņa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.90
0.50
0.86
0.31
0.94
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
2.00
0.33
1.67
0.00
2.20
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.67
0.57
1.00
0.38
0.38
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.14
0.50
0.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.8%
@ 1.29-1.1%
Under 0.5
29.2%
@ 3.30+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Under
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.25
1xBet
3.25
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.0%
@ 2.40-1.7%
Under 1.5
63.0%
@ 1.51+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Unibet
2.12
Under
Unibet
1.56
Betfair
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.9%
@ 5.83-3.2%
Under 2.5
87.1%
@ 1.11+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.00
1xBet
6.00
Bet365
5.50
Under
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
1xBet
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Auda over/under 0.5 HT
Over
56.7%
@ 1.52-4.2%
Under
43.3%
@ 2.37+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.52
Under
1xBet
2.37
Auda over/under 1.5 HT
Over
18.4%
@ 3.40-8.7%
Under
81.6%
@ 1.26+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.40
Under
1xBet
1.26
Auda over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.5%
@ 9.60-5.0%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.01+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.60
Under
1xBet
1.01
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
30.0%
@ 3.00-0.9%
Under
70.0%
@ 1.34+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.00
Under
1xBet
1.34
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Auda
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.83
0.62
0.69
0.29
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.33
0.33
0.67
0.33
2.00
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.85
0.71
0.86
0.17
0.83
vs Weaker (11)
0.55
0.55
0.67
0.50
0.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grobiņa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.97
0.64
0.36
0.31
1.50
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.62
0.67
0.33
0.20
2.40
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.87
0.71
0.29
0.38
1.38
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.43
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.6%
@ 1.20+2.3%
Under 0.5
19.4%
@ 4.33-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Under
1xBet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
49.2%
@ 1.91+0.7%
Under 1.5
50.8%
@ 1.80-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Under
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.3%
@ 4.00-3.0%
Under 2.5
79.7%
@ 1.22+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Under
1xBet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Auda over/under 0.5 2H
Over
67.8%
@ 1.35-1.2%
Under
32.2%
@ 3.00+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.35
Under
1xBet
3.00
Auda over/under 1.5 2H
Over
29.1%
@ 2.60-6.4%
Under
70.9%
@ 1.43+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.60
Under
1xBet
1.43
Auda over/under 2.5 2H
Over
10.2%
@ 6.40-4.1%
Under
89.8%
@ 1.07+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.40
Under
1xBet
1.07
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
38.6%
@ 2.50+1.7%
Under
61.4%
@ 1.46-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.50
Under
1xBet
1.46
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
8.4%
@ 9.70-1.0%
Under
91.6%
@ 1.01+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.70
Under
1xBet
1.01
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.2%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+4.9%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.5%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.0%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.7%
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
+3.7%
Home or Draw
92.6%
1.06
Unibet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
-
+6.2%
Home +1 handicap
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
91.6%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.0%
Home over 0.5 goals
89.8%
1.06
1xBet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
-
-
-
+2.7%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
89.8%
1.07
1xBet
1.07
-
-
-
-
+4.1%
Away under 1.5 goals
87.6%
1.16
1xBet
1.17
Betfair
1.14
-
-
-
+7.7%
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
1xBet
1.11
-
-
+3.2%
Under 4.5
83.3%
1.17
Unibet
1.20
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.15
-
-
+4.8%
Home or Away
82.1%
1.14
1xBet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.14
-
+1.6%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.6%
1.26
1xBet
1.26
-
-
-
-
+8.7%
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.6%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.20
-
-
-
+2.3%
Home under 3.5 goals
80.3%
1.13
Betfair
1.14
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-1.3%
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.7%
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+3.0%
Over 1.5
79.1%
1.21
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.20
-
-
-
+2.4%
Home win
74.7%
1.36
Unibet
1.43
1xBet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.30
-
+8.3%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
70.9%
1.43
1xBet
1.43
-
-
-
-
+6.4%
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.8%
1.29
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-1.1%
Away under 0.5 HT goals
70.0%
1.34
1xBet
1.34
-
-
-
-
+0.9%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
Auda's squad is €3m more valuable than Grobiņa's (€6m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
OU (12)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
Auda's attack is €2m more valuable than Grobiņa's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
Auda and Grobiņa have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
OU (11)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
Auda's defence is €1m more valuable than Grobiņa's (€3m vs €1m).
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →