Auda’s recent 2-game winning streak and a 1-0 victory over FK Liepaja give the home side a clear edge, reflected in the model’s 81% chance of a home win. The Virsliga fixture is expected to see 3.6 goals on average, with the most likely total of 3 goals. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0, carrying a 11.4% probability. Auda’s home form shows a modest 1.14 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game against similar opposition, while Ogre United, playing away, averages 1.38 goals scored and 1.88 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include an away under 3.5 goals at 99.4%, a home +2 handicap at 98.4%, under 7.5 goals at 97.0%, away under 2.5 goals at 96.4%, home over 0.5 goals at 94.4%, home or draw at 94.1%, home +1 handicap at 94.1%, and under 6.5 goals at 92.8%. The probabilities for the match outcome are 81%home win, 13% draw, and 6% away win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Auda win
77.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
15.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ogre United win
7.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Auda
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.37
1.12
1.12
0.71
1.64
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
2.33
0.33
2.00
0.33
2.67
vs Similar (13)
0.92
1.31
1.14
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (11)
1.27
0.91
1.50
0.83
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Ogre United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ogre United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.30
2.07
0.93
2.13
1.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
3.50
0.00
3.00
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (14)
1.57
1.57
1.71
1.14
1.43
2.00
vs Weaker (14)
2.86
0.71
2.71
0.43
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.4%
Under 1.5
13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
66.7%
Under 2.5
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
44.9%
Under 3.5
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.6%
No
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.7%
3-0
10.5%
2-1
8.7%
1-0
8.0%
3-1
7.8%
1-1
7.1%
4-0
7.1%
4-1
5.3%
Auda goals ↓
Ogre United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
1.8%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
1
8.0%
7.1%
2.4%
0.6%
0.1%
2
12%
8.7%
3.2%
0.8%
0.1%
3
10%
7.8%
2.9%
0.7%
0.1%
4
7.1%
5.3%
2.0%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Auda goals (down), columns = Ogre United goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.43
Riga
2.29
Auda
2.00
FK Liepaja
1.88
BFC Daugavpils
1.62
Super Nova
1.33
Grobiņa
1.00
FS Jelgava
0.86
Ogre United
0.57
Tukums
0.38
Auda is 1.43 points better than Ogre United in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.57).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Riga
3.00
Rīgas FS
2.57
FK Liepaja
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.50
Super Nova
1.17
Auda
1.14
FS Jelgava
1.14
Grobiņa
1.14
Ogre United
1.00
Tukums
0.75
Auda is 0.14 goals better than Ogre United in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Auda
0.57
Rīgas FS
0.86
BFC Daugavpils
0.88
Super Nova
1.00
Riga
1.14
FK Liepaja
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.71
Tukums
2.38
Grobiņa
2.57
Ogre United
3.00
Auda is 2.43 goals better than Ogre United in terms of goals conceded per game (0.57 vs 3.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Auda or Draw
92.8%
Avg Implied -
78%
15%
7%
covers Auda + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Auda or Ogre United
85.0%
Avg Implied -
78%
15%
7%
covers Auda + Ogre United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ogre United
22.2%
Avg Implied -
78%
15%
7%
covers Draw + Ogre United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Auda over/under 0.5
Over
93.2%
Under
6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 1.5
Over
75.0%
Under
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 2.5
Over
50.4%
Under
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 3.5
Over
28.4%
Under
71.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 0.5
Over
52.5%
Under
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 1.5
Over
17.1%
Under
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 2.5
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 3.5
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Auda, so a minus line means Auda give that many goals of a start and Ogre United receive them. At -1, Auda must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Auda win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Auda)
Auda -2
36.0%
Draw -2
21.7%
Ogre United +2
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Auda)
Auda -1
57.7%
Draw -1
20.1%
Ogre United +1
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Auda)
Auda +1
92.8%
Draw +1
5.1%
Ogre United -1
2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Auda)
Auda +2
97.9%
Draw +2
1.7%
Ogre United -2
0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Auda
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.53
0.50
0.44
0.43
0.64
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.33
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.46
0.43
0.14
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (11)
0.73
0.36
0.83
0.33
0.60
0.40
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Ogre United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ogre United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.60
0.93
0.27
0.80
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.71
0.86
0.29
0.57
1.14
vs Weaker (14)
1.07
0.21
1.14
0.14
1.00
0.29
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Auda over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Auda
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.83
0.62
0.69
0.29
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.33
0.33
0.67
0.33
2.00
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.85
0.71
0.86
0.17
0.83
vs Weaker (11)
0.55
0.55
0.67
0.50
0.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Ogre United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ogre United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.70
1.13
0.67
1.33
0.73
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.86
0.86
0.86
0.86
0.86
vs Weaker (14)
1.79
0.50
1.57
0.29
2.00
0.71
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Auda over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
Auda's squad is €3m more valuable than Ogre United's (€6m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
OU (12)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
Auda's attack is €1m more valuable than Ogre United's (€3m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
Auda and Ogre United have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
OU (11)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
Auda's defence is €2m more valuable than Ogre United's (€3m vs €1m).
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rīgas FS
Riga
FK Liepaja
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
Tukums