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Auda vs Tukums Result & Analysis

Date: 18/07/2022
Time: 15:00
Final 3-0
Auda
Auda
Vs
55%
25%
20%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tukums
Tukums
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Auda are tipped to win, with a 55% chance of triumph, a 25% draw probability and a 20% chance for Tukums to come away with the win. The model expects 2.9 goals in total, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 24%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.7% probability. Auda, playing at home against a weaker side, average 3.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded, while Tukums, on the road against a stronger opponent, average 0.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. The only suggested pick is Over 1.5, with an 80% chance of hitting. Auda’s recent form shows a draw in their last match, while Tukums has endured three straight defeats. The match is likely to be a straightforward Auda victory, with the over-1.5 selection offering the best edge.

Results analysis

Auda’s recent form, coming off a draw, kept the momentum going as they secured a 3-0 home win over Tukums, confirming the model’s prediction that the favoured side would triumph. The model’s pick of a home win, with a 55% probability, was correct. The suggested selection Over 1.5, with an 80% probability, also hit, as the match produced three goals. The most likely scoreline of 2-0, at 9.3% probability, was eclipsed by the 3-0 result, but the overall outcome matched the forecast. Auda’s strong home form and Tukums’ struggles away proved decisive, and the model’s predictions largely came through.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Auda win✓ Hit
55.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tukums win✗ Miss
20.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AudaAuda

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L01L02L12L21W50W01L20W21W20WA·TUK10/05H·RĪG15/05A·VAL20/05H·FK 24/05A·BFC28/05H·SPA17/06A·RIG22/06A·MET27/06A·SUP02/07H·BFC06/07
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.400.951.891.111.000.82
vs Stronger (4)0.000.750.001.000.000.50
vs Similar (6)1.171.501.331.671.001.33
vs Weaker (10)2.100.703.250.751.330.67
Clean sheet %35% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TukumsTukums

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W11D03L03L31W01L21W01L20W30WH·AUD10/05H·SUP14/05A·RĪG19/05H·VAL24/05A·SPA29/05H·RIG18/06A·FK 22/06H·BFC26/06H·MET03/07H·SPA13/07
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.951.002.181.001.67
vs Stronger (10)0.502.800.603.800.401.80
vs Similar (10)1.501.101.330.831.751.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %15% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%014%124%222%316%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.0%
Under 1.5
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.0%
Under 2.5
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.6%
Under 3.5
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.3%
No
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.3%
1-0
9.0%
0-0
6.4%
3-1
6.2%
3-0 ✓
5.8%
1-2
5.6%
Auda goals ↓
Tukums goals →
01234
06.4%4.6%3.0%1.1%0.3%
19.0%12%5.6%2.0%0.5%
29.3%9.9%5.2%1.8%0.5%
35.8%6.2%3.3%1.2%0.3%
42.7%2.9%1.5%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Auda goals (down), columns = Tukums goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Valmiera / BSS
2.36
Riga
2.25
Rīgas FS
2.11
FK Liepaja
1.94
Auda
1.50
Tukums
1.06
BFC Daugavpils
0.94
Spartaks Jurmala
0.86
Super Nova
0.56
Metta / LU
0.53
Auda is 0.44 points better than Tukums in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.06).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Valmiera / BSS
2.81
Rīgas FS
2.31
FK Liepaja
2.00
Riga
1.89
Auda
1.22
Metta / LU
1.06
Tukums
1.06
Spartaks Jurmala
1.03
BFC Daugavpils
0.83
Super Nova
0.67
Auda is 0.17 goals better than Tukums in terms of goals scored per game (1.22 vs 1.06).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Riga
0.64
Valmiera / BSS
0.69
Rīgas FS
0.89
Auda
0.92
FK Liepaja
1.17
BFC Daugavpils
1.86
Tukums
1.92
Spartaks Jurmala
2.08
Super Nova
2.25
Metta / LU
2.44
Auda is 1.00 goals better than Tukums in terms of goals conceded per game (0.92 vs 1.92).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AudaAuda

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D00D01L10W20W00D10W11D00DA·TUK10/05H·RĪG15/05A·VAL20/05H·FK 24/05A·BFC28/05H·SPA17/06A·RIG22/06A·MET27/06A·SUP02/07H·BFC06/07
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.550.250.670.220.450.27
vs Stronger (4)0.000.000.000.000.000.00
vs Similar (6)0.330.170.000.330.670.00
vs Weaker (10)0.900.401.500.250.500.50
Clean sheet %75% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TukumsTukums

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L02L01L20W01L01L01L10W10WH·AUD10/05H·SUP14/05A·RĪG19/05H·VAL24/05A·SPA29/05H·RIG18/06A·FK 22/06H·BFC26/06H·MET03/07H·SPA13/07
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.451.050.451.270.440.78
vs Stronger (10)0.101.400.202.000.000.80
vs Similar (10)0.800.700.670.671.000.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Auda over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AudaAuda

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D01L02L11D11D30W01L10W10W20WA·TUK10/05H·RĪG15/05A·VAL20/05H·FK 24/05A·BFC28/05H·SPA17/06A·RIG22/06A·MET27/06A·SUP02/07H·BFC06/07
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.850.701.220.890.550.55
vs Stronger (4)0.000.750.001.000.000.50
vs Similar (6)0.831.331.331.330.331.33
vs Weaker (10)1.200.301.750.500.830.17
Clean sheet %45% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TukumsTukums

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W01L02L11D00D20W00D10W20WH·AUD10/05H·SUP14/05A·RĪG19/05H·VAL24/05A·SPA29/05H·RIG18/06A·FK 22/06H·BFC26/06H·MET03/07H·SPA13/07
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.550.900.550.910.560.89
vs Stronger (10)0.401.400.401.800.401.00
vs Similar (10)0.700.400.670.170.750.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Auda over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
SN (24)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
Auda's squad is €4m more valuable than Tukums's (€6m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
SN (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
Auda's attack is €2m more valuable than Tukums's (€3m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
Auda and Tukums have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
Auda's defence is €2m more valuable than Tukums's (€3m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
AUD wins
0
Draws
1
TUK wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Auda vs Tukums · H/A from AUD
DateH/AGameScore
10/05/22ATukums Vs AUD2-1
02/04/22HAUD Vs Tukums1-0

AudaAuda

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/07/22HAUD Vs BFC Daugavpils2-0
02/07/22ASuper Nova Vs AUD1-2
27/06/22AMetta / LU Vs AUD0-2
22/06/22ARiga Vs AUD1-0
17/06/22HAUD Vs Spartaks Jurmala5-0
28/05/22ABFC Daugavpils Vs AUD1-2
24/05/22HAUD Vs FK Liepaja1-2
20/05/22AValmiera / BSS Vs AUD2-0
15/05/22HAUD Vs Rīgas FS0-1
10/05/22ATukums Vs AUD2-1

TukumsTukums

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/07/22HTUK Vs Spartaks Jurmala3-0
03/07/22HTUK Vs Metta / LU2-0
26/06/22HTUK Vs BFC Daugavpils0-1
22/06/22AFK Liepaja Vs TUK1-2
18/06/22HTUK Vs Riga0-1
29/05/22ASpartaks Jurmala Vs TUK1-3
24/05/22HTUK Vs Valmiera / BSS0-3
19/05/22ARīgas FS Vs TUK3-0
14/05/22HTUK Vs Super Nova1-1
10/05/22HTUK Vs Auda2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Auda
Auda
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 5 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWW1.65
HomeWLLWW1.67
AwayLWLWW1.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%56%45%
AVG goals2.353.001.82
Over 1.5 %65%67%64%
Over 2.5 %45%56%36%
Over 3.5 %20%44%0%
Scored1.401.891.00
Conceded0.951.110.82
BTTS45%44%45%
Clean Sheet35%33%36%
Corners---
Cards---
Tukums
Tukums
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWW1.00
HomeLLLWW1.00
AwayLLLWW1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%27%33%
AVG goals2.953.182.67
Over 1.5 %70%73%67%
Over 2.5 %60%55%67%
Over 3.5 %25%27%22%
Scored1.001.001.00
Conceded1.952.181.67
BTTS40%36%44%
Clean Sheet15%18%11%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS3685
72%
2.4
10125+76
3.5
89%
64%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.7
-
2RigaRiga3681
72%
2.2
6823+45
2.5
72%
44%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7361.90.6
-
3Rīgas FSRīgas FS3676
61%
2.1
8332+51
3.2
86%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.30.9
-
4FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3670
58%
1.9
7242+30
3.2
78%
64%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.01.2
-
5AudaAuda3654
44%
1.5
4433+11
2.1
64%
39%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.20.9
-
6TukumsTukums3638
31%
1.1
3869-31
3.0
78%
61%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.9
-
7BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3634
25%
0.9
3067-37
2.7
72%
47%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.81.9
-
8Spartaks JurmalaSpartaks Jurmala3631
25%
0.9
3775-38
3.1
86%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.1
-
9Super NovaSuper Nova3620
11%
0.6
2481-57
2.9
75%
53%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.72.2
-
10Metta / LUMetta / LU3619
11%
0.5
3888-50
3.5
89%
61%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.4
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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