Austria Salzburg are tipped to win, the model’s pick, with a 46% chance of a home victory, 27% for a draw and 26% for First Vienna to come through. The match is expected to see 2.7 goals on average, but the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.1% probability. Salzburg’s home form shows they average 1.69 goals scored and 1.23 conceded against similar opposition, while First Vienna, on the road, averages 1.0 scored and 0.64 conceded to comparable teams. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Under 6.5 (97.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.1%), Under 5.5 (94.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (89.2%), Home +2 handicap (89.1%) and Under 4.5 (86.0%). Salzburg’s recent form has them coming off a defeat, whereas First Vienna are on a two-game winning run.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Austria Salzburg win
46.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
First Vienna win
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Austria Salzburg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.23
1.71
1.14
1.25
1.31
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
1.50
2.00
0.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (27)
1.30
1.22
1.69
1.23
0.93
1.21
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
1.00
-
-
5.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (First Vienna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
First Vienna
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.97
1.43
1.29
1.00
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
1.19
0.93
1.38
1.23
1.00
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Austria Salzburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.2%
Under 1.5
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.8%
Under 2.5
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.6%
Under 3.5
70.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.7%
No
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
2-1
9.4%
1-0
9.0%
2-0
8.1%
0-0
7.6%
1-2
6.8%
0-1
6.2%
2-2
5.4%
Austria Salzburg goals ↓
First Vienna goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
6.2%
4.3%
1.6%
0.5%
1
9.0%
13%
6.8%
2.6%
0.8%
2
8.1%
9.4%
5.4%
2.1%
0.6%
3
4.3%
5.0%
2.9%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.7%
2.0%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Austria Salzburg goals (down), columns = First Vienna goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lask Linz
2.33
Admira Wacker
2.33
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
2.33
SV Kapfenberg
2.33
WSG Wattens
2.33
Rapid Vienna
2.25
Ried
2.20
Velden
2.00
Sturm Graz
2.00
Red Bull Salzburg
2.00
SCR Altach
2.00
Wolfsberger AC
1.75
FC BW Linz
1.75
SKU Amstetten
1.67
TSV Hartberg
1.67
Oberwart
1.50
Gurten
1.50
SVG Reichenau
1.50
Dornbirn
1.50
Floridsdorfer AC
1.50
Voitsberg
1.50
First Vienna
1.50
Austria Lustenau
1.50
SV Horn
1.50
Schwaz
1.50
SKN ST. Polten
1.33
Krems / Rehberg
1.00
WSPG Wels
1.00
Imst
1.00
Leithaprodersdorf
0.91
Leonfelden
0.91
Wienerberg
0.91
Mattersburg SV 2020
0.91
Leobendorf
0.91
Seekirchen
0.91
Wiener Viktoria
0.91
Bleiburg
0.91
Scheiblingkirchen
0.91
Wieselburg
0.91
Lustenau
0.91
Leoben
0.91
SK Vorwarts Steyr
0.91
Kitzbühel
0.91
Deutschlandsberger SC
0.91
Austria Salzburg
0.00
Fach-Donaufeld
0.00
Wals-Grünau
0.00
Lauterach
0.00
Tillmitsch
0.00
Kalsdorf
0.00
Bischofshofen
0.00
Wohnbau Dietach
0.00
Hohenems
0.00
Austria Vienna
0.00
Grazer AK
0.00
Wacker Innsbruck
0.00
SV Lafnitz
0.00
Wallern / Marienkirchen
0.00
Kuchl
0.00
Treibach
0.00
Parndorf
0.00
Austria Klagenfurt
0.00
Traiskirchen
0.00
Wiener SC
0.00
Austria Salzburg is 1.50 points worse than First Vienna in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Oberwart
4.00
Gurten
3.00
Wolfsberger AC
2.75
Admira Wacker
2.67
WSG Wattens
2.67
Floridsdorfer AC
2.50
Schwaz
2.50
Lask Linz
2.33
SKN ST. Polten
2.33
FC BW Linz
2.25
Wals-Grünau
2.00
SVG Reichenau
2.00
Austria Vienna
2.00
Ried
2.00
Sturm Graz
2.00
SCR Altach
2.00
WSPG Wels
2.00
Voitsberg
2.00
First Vienna
2.00
TSV Hartberg
2.00
SV Lafnitz
2.00
Imst
2.00
Kuchl
2.00
Red Bull Salzburg
1.80
SKU Amstetten
1.67
SV Kapfenberg
1.67
Velden
1.50
Austria Lustenau
1.50
Leithaprodersdorf
1.34
Leonfelden
1.34
Wienerberg
1.34
Mattersburg SV 2020
1.34
Leobendorf
1.34
Seekirchen
1.34
Wiener Viktoria
1.34
Bleiburg
1.34
Scheiblingkirchen
1.34
Wieselburg
1.34
Lustenau
1.34
Leoben
1.34
SK Vorwarts Steyr
1.34
Kitzbühel
1.34
Deutschlandsberger SC
1.34
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.33
Krems / Rehberg
1.00
Tillmitsch
1.00
Hohenems
1.00
Dornbirn
1.00
Rapid Vienna
1.00
SV Horn
1.00
Wallern / Marienkirchen
1.00
Austria Salzburg
0.00
Fach-Donaufeld
0.00
Lauterach
0.00
Kalsdorf
0.00
Bischofshofen
0.00
Wohnbau Dietach
0.00
Grazer AK
0.00
Wacker Innsbruck
0.00
Treibach
0.00
Parndorf
0.00
Austria Klagenfurt
0.00
Traiskirchen
0.00
Wiener SC
0.00
Austria Salzburg is 2.00 goals worse than First Vienna in terms of goals scored per game (0.00 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
0.00
Ried
0.20
Sturm Graz
0.50
Red Bull Salzburg
0.60
Admira Wacker
0.67
SV Kapfenberg
0.67
WSG Wattens
0.67
Lask Linz
0.83
Austria Salzburg
1.00
Krems / Rehberg
1.00
Oberwart
1.00
Velden
1.00
Wolfsberger AC
1.00
Grazer AK
1.00
SCR Altach
1.00
Rapid Vienna
1.00
SKN ST. Polten
1.00
Wacker Innsbruck
1.00
TSV Hartberg
1.00
FC BW Linz
1.00
SV Horn
1.00
SKU Amstetten
1.33
Gurten
1.50
Dornbirn
1.50
Floridsdorfer AC
1.50
First Vienna
1.50
Schwaz
1.50
WSPG Wels
2.00
Austria Lustenau
2.00
Imst
2.00
Austria Klagenfurt
2.00
Leithaprodersdorf
2.33
Leonfelden
2.33
Wienerberg
2.33
Mattersburg SV 2020
2.33
Leobendorf
2.33
Seekirchen
2.33
Wiener Viktoria
2.33
Bleiburg
2.33
Scheiblingkirchen
2.33
Wieselburg
2.33
Lustenau
2.33
Leoben
2.33
SK Vorwarts Steyr
2.33
Kitzbühel
2.33
Deutschlandsberger SC
2.33
Tillmitsch
3.00
Austria Vienna
3.00
Voitsberg
3.00
Wallern / Marienkirchen
3.00
Kuchl
3.00
Treibach
3.00
SVG Reichenau
3.50
Fach-Donaufeld
4.00
Bischofshofen
4.00
Wohnbau Dietach
4.00
Hohenems
4.00
Traiskirchen
4.00
Wiener SC
4.00
Lauterach
5.00
Kalsdorf
5.00
SV Lafnitz
5.00
Parndorf
5.00
Wals-Grünau
6.00
Austria Salzburg is 0.50 goals better than First Vienna in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Austria Salzburg or Draw
73.5%
Avg Implied -
46%
27%
26%
covers Austria Salzburg + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Austria Salzburg or First Vienna
72.8%
Avg Implied -
46%
27%
26%
covers Austria Salzburg + First Vienna
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or First Vienna
53.7%
Avg Implied -
46%
27%
26%
covers Draw + First Vienna
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Austria Salzburg over/under 0.5
Over
79.7%
Under
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Austria Salzburg over/under 1.5
Over
47.3%
Under
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Austria Salzburg over/under 2.5
Over
21.5%
Under
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Austria Salzburg over/under 3.5
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
First Vienna over/under 0.5
Over
68.5%
Under
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
First Vienna over/under 1.5
Over
32.1%
Under
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
First Vienna over/under 2.5
Over
11.1%
Under
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
First Vienna over/under 3.5
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Austria Salzburg, so a minus line means Austria Salzburg give that many goals of a start and First Vienna receive them. At -1, Austria Salzburg must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Austria Salzburg win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Austria Salzburg)
Austria Salzburg -2
10.1%
Draw -2
14.4%
First Vienna +2
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Austria Salzburg)
Austria Salzburg -1
24.5%
Draw -1
21.8%
First Vienna +1
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Austria Salzburg)
Austria Salzburg +1
73.5%
Draw +1
15.5%
First Vienna -1
11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Austria Salzburg)
Austria Salzburg +2
89.0%
Draw +2
7.6%
First Vienna -2
3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Austria Salzburg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.57
0.93
0.57
0.56
0.56
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.67
0.59
1.00
0.62
0.36
0.57
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (First Vienna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
First Vienna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.37
0.64
0.57
0.75
0.19
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.70
0.37
0.69
0.54
0.71
0.21
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Austria Salzburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Austria Salzburg over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Austria Salzburg over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Austria Salzburg over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
First Vienna over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
First Vienna over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
First Vienna over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Austria Salzburg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.79
0.57
0.69
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.63
0.69
0.62
0.57
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (First Vienna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
First Vienna
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.79
0.71
0.25
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.48
0.56
0.69
0.69
0.29
0.43
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Austria Salzburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Austria Salzburg over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Austria Salzburg over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Austria Salzburg over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
First Vienna over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
First Vienna over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
First Vienna over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (31)
€105m
SG (26)
€52m
RV (33)
€46m
LL (22)
€44m
AV (30)
€23m
WA (28)
€12m
TH (27)
€10m
GA (23)
€9m
SA (23)
€9m
RIE (24)
€7m
WW (22)
€7m
FBL (21)
€5m
AL (22)
€5m
FV (24)
€5m
SSP (20)
€4m
AW (23)
€4m
AS (22)
€4m
SB (22)
€3m
WW (19)
€3m
SA (20)
€3m
FA (19)
€3m
SK (23)
€3m
Austria Salzburg's squad is €1m less valuable than First Vienna's (€4m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (11)
€47m
SG (11)
€26m
RV (11)
€16m
LL (5)
€13m
AV (11)
€9m
SA (9)
€4m
WA (9)
€3m
WW (7)
€3m
TH (9)
€3m
AL (10)
€2m
RIE (7)
€2m
GA (7)
€2m
FBL (9)
€2m
AW (7)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
FV (7)
€1m
SB (9)
€1m
WW (7)
€1m
SA (7)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
AS (7)
€1m
SK (7)
€1m
Austria Salzburg and First Vienna have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (6)
€29m
SG (4)
€14m
LL (6)
€11m
RV (6)
€10m
AV (5)
€7m
WA (5)
€3m
TH (7)
€3m
RIE (8)
€3m
FV (8)
€2m
WW (7)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
FBL (4)
€1m
SA (3)
€1m
GA (3)
€1m
FA (5)
€1m
AL (3)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
SA (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
WW (4)
€1m
AS (4)
€1m
Austria Salzburg's midfield is €1m less valuable than First Vienna's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (14)
€29m
LL (11)
€20m
RV (16)
€19m
SG (11)
€13m
AV (14)
€7m
WA (14)
€6m
GA (13)
€6m
TH (11)
€5m
SA (11)
€4m
WW (8)
€3m
RIE (9)
€3m
AS (11)
€2m
FBL (8)
€2m
AW (11)
€2m
AL (9)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
WW (8)
€1m
SSP (8)
€1m
SA (8)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
SK (10)
€1m
Austria Salzburg and First Vienna have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Austria: 2. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: 2. Liga stats & trends →