Austria Salzburg are favoured to win, a 50 % chance compared with 25 % each for a draw or a Sturm Graz II victory. The match is expected to see about 3.1 goals, with the most likely total being two goals at 23 %. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 11.6 % probability. Salzburg, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, average 1.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded, while Sturm Graz II on the road average 0.93 goals scored and 1.71 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.7 %), Under 6.5 (96.3 %), Away under 3.5 goals (96.2 %), Under 5.5 (90.9 %), Home +2 handicap (89.2 %), Home under 3.5 goals (88.8 %), Over 2.5 cards (87.6 %) and Away under 2.5 goals (86.9 %). Salzburg’s recent form, with a win in the last match, gives them a slight edge, while Sturm Graz II are still recovering from two consecutive defeats.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Austria Salzburg win
49.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz II win
25.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Austria Salzburg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.23
1.71
1.14
1.25
1.31
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
1.50
2.00
0.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (27)
1.30
1.22
1.69
1.23
0.93
1.21
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
1.00
-
-
5.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Sturm Graz II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sturm Graz II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.73
1.19
1.75
0.93
1.71
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.10
1.76
1.27
1.80
0.93
1.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Austria Salzburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.1%
Under 1.5
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.2%
Under 2.5
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.8%
Under 3.5
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.8%
No
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
7.7%
1-0
7.4%
1-2
6.6%
2-2
6.0%
3-1
5.8%
0-0
5.7%
Austria Salzburg goals ↓
Sturm Graz II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
4.7%
3.6%
1.5%
0.5%
1
7.4%
12%
6.6%
2.7%
0.9%
2
7.7%
9.6%
6.0%
2.5%
0.8%
3
4.7%
5.8%
3.6%
1.5%
0.5%
4
2.1%
2.7%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Austria Salzburg goals (down), columns = Sturm Graz II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC BW Linz
2.40
Floridsdorfer AC
2.00
First Vienna
2.00
FC Liefering
2.00
Austria Salzburg
1.80
Wacker Innsbruck
1.80
Austria Vienna (Am)
1.80
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.40
Rapid Wien II
1.20
Sturm Graz II
1.20
Admira Wacker
1.20
SKU Amstetten
1.20
Voitsberg
1.00
WSPG Wels
0.80
SKN ST. Polten
0.60
SV Kapfenberg
0.60
Austria Salzburg is 0.60 points better than Sturm Graz II in terms of average points per game (1.80 vs 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Liefering
2.60
FC BW Linz
2.60
Sturm Graz II
2.00
Austria Salzburg
2.00
Floridsdorfer AC
1.80
First Vienna
1.80
Voitsberg
1.40
Wacker Innsbruck
1.40
Austria Vienna (Am)
1.40
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.20
SV Kapfenberg
1.20
Rapid Wien II
1.20
WSPG Wels
1.20
Admira Wacker
1.20
SKU Amstetten
1.20
SKN ST. Polten
0.20
Austria Salzburg and Sturm Graz II are level in goals scored per game (both 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC BW Linz
0.60
SKN ST. Polten
0.80
Wacker Innsbruck
1.00
Admira Wacker
1.00
Floridsdorfer AC
1.20
First Vienna
1.20
SKU Amstetten
1.20
Austria Vienna (Am)
1.20
Austria Salzburg
1.40
FC Liefering
1.60
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
2.00
Voitsberg
2.00
WSPG Wels
2.00
Rapid Wien II
2.20
SV Kapfenberg
2.40
Sturm Graz II
2.60
Austria Salzburg is 1.20 goals better than Sturm Graz II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 2.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Austria Salzburg
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Sturm Graz II
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Austria Salzburg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (39)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Sturm Graz II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sturm Graz II
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (47)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Austria Salzburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
SKN ST. Polten
10.6
Austria Vienna (Am)
10.5
FC Liefering
10.3
SV Kapfenberg
10.3
SKU Amstetten
10.2
First Vienna
10.1
Floridsdorfer AC
10.0
Rapid Wien II
9.7
Voitsberg
9.0
FC BW Linz
8.8
Admira Wacker
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SV Kapfenberg
6.5
Voitsberg
5.7
SKN ST. Polten
5.5
Floridsdorfer AC
5.4
SKU Amstetten
5.3
First Vienna
5.0
FC Liefering
4.9
Admira Wacker
4.7
FC BW Linz
4.6
Austria Vienna (Am)
4.3
Rapid Wien II
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
First Vienna
26.4
Floridsdorfer AC
26.0
Voitsberg
25.3
Austria Vienna (Am)
25.2
FC Liefering
25.1
SV Kapfenberg
24.1
SKU Amstetten
23.8
Rapid Wien II
23.8
Admira Wacker
23.3
SKN ST. Polten
22.5
FC BW Linz
22.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
47.3%
Under 9.5
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
73.6%
Under 3.5
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
67.4%
Under 21.5
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Austria Salzburg or Draw
74.8%
Avg Implied -
50%
25%
25%
covers Austria Salzburg + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Austria Salzburg or Sturm Graz II
74.9%
Avg Implied -
50%
25%
25%
covers Austria Salzburg + Sturm Graz II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sturm Graz II
50.2%
Avg Implied -
50%
25%
25%
covers Draw + Sturm Graz II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Austria Salzburg over/under 0.5
Over
83.8%
Under
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Austria Salzburg over/under 1.5
Over
54.3%
Under
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Austria Salzburg over/under 2.5
Over
27.5%
Under
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Austria Salzburg over/under 3.5
Over
11.2%
Under
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz II over/under 0.5
Over
71.3%
Under
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz II over/under 1.5
Over
35.5%
Under
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz II over/under 2.5
Over
13.1%
Under
86.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz II over/under 3.5
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Austria Salzburg, so a minus line means Austria Salzburg give that many goals of a start and Sturm Graz II receive them. At -1, Austria Salzburg must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Austria Salzburg win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Austria Salzburg)
Austria Salzburg -2
12.9%
Draw -2
15.5%
Sturm Graz II +2
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Austria Salzburg)
Austria Salzburg -1
28.3%
Draw -1
21.4%
Sturm Graz II +1
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Austria Salzburg)
Austria Salzburg +1
74.8%
Draw +1
14.4%
Sturm Graz II -1
10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Austria Salzburg)
Austria Salzburg +2
89.2%
Draw +2
7.3%
Sturm Graz II -2
3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Austria Salzburg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.57
0.93
0.57
0.56
0.56
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.67
0.59
1.00
0.62
0.36
0.57
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Sturm Graz II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sturm Graz II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.90
0.50
0.88
0.50
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.52
0.90
0.53
0.87
0.50
0.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Austria Salzburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.2%
Under 0.5
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.5%
Under 1.5
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.9%
Under 2.5
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Austria Salzburg over/under 0.5 HT
Over
57.4%
Under
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Austria Salzburg over/under 1.5 HT
Over
21.0%
Under
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Austria Salzburg over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.1%
Under
93.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
35.6%
Under
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Austria Salzburg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.79
0.57
0.69
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.63
0.69
0.62
0.57
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Sturm Graz II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sturm Graz II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.69
0.88
0.43
0.79
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.59
0.86
0.73
0.93
0.43
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Austria Salzburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.2%
Under 0.5
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
49.4%
Under 1.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.3%
Under 2.5
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Austria Salzburg over/under 0.5 2H
Over
65.3%
Under
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Austria Salzburg over/under 1.5 2H
Over
29.7%
Under
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Austria Salzburg over/under 2.5 2H
Over
8.9%
Under
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
44.0%
Under
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
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Home or Away
74.9%
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-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
74.8%
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-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
73.6%
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-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
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Over 0.5 HT goals
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
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Away +2 handicap
71.7%
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-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
71.3%
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-
-
-
-
-
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Home under 1.5 2H goals
70.3%
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-
-
-
-
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No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FL (17)
€5m
FBL (21)
€5m
FV (24)
€5m
AV( (23)
€5m
SSP (20)
€4m
AW (23)
€4m
RWI (24)
€4m
SGI (22)
€4m
AS (22)
€4m
SB (22)
€3m
WW (19)
€3m
SA (20)
€3m
FA (19)
€3m
SK (23)
€3m
Austria Salzburg and Sturm Graz II have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FL (4)
€3m
RWI (12)
€2m
FBL (9)
€2m
AW (7)
€2m
AV( (7)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
SGI (7)
€1m
FV (7)
€1m
SB (9)
€1m
WW (7)
€1m
SA (7)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
AS (7)
€1m
SK (7)
€1m
Austria Salzburg and Sturm Graz II have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FV (8)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
FBL (4)
€1m
FL (6)
€1m
FA (5)
€1m
AV( (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
SGI (6)
€1m
SA (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
WW (4)
€1m
RWI (4)
€1m
AS (4)
€1m
Austria Salzburg and Sturm Graz II have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AV( (11)
€2m
AS (11)
€2m
FBL (8)
€2m
AW (11)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
SGI (9)
€2m
FL (7)
€2m
WW (8)
€1m
SSP (8)
€1m
RWI (8)
€1m
SA (8)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
SK (10)
€1m
Austria Salzburg and Sturm Graz II have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Austria: 2. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: 2. Liga stats & trends →