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Austria Vienna (Am) vs SV Kapfenberg Result & Analysis

Date: 14/05/2026
Time: 15:00
Final 1-2
Austria Vienna (Am)
Austria Vienna (Am)
Vs
43%
29%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
SV Kapfenberg
SV Kapfenberg
Austria: 2. Liga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Austria Vienna (Am) a 43% win probability against SV Kapfenberg in the Austria: 2. Liga on 2026-05-14, with 29% for the draw and 28% for SV Kapfenberg. The model estimates around 2.5 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (27%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (13.8%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 3.5 cards (76%), Under 3.5 (76%), Over 1.5 (73%).

Results analysis

Austria Vienna (Am) finished 1-2 against SV Kapfenberg (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 43% home win, 29% draw and 28% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (76%), Over 1.5 (73%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Austria Vienna (Am) win✗ Miss
43.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg win✓ Hit
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Austria Vienna (Am)Austria Vienna (Am)

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W10W20W01L11D31W11D02L05L22DH·RAP27/02H·WSP07/03A·FIR15/03H·STU21/03A·SKU03/04H·AUS06/04H·AUS17/04A·FC 24/04H·FLO02/05A·SCH08/05
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.470.931.271.271.67
vs Stronger (3)0.003.000.002.000.003.50
vs Similar (23)1.171.390.921.331.451.45
vs Weaker (4)1.500.751.500.501.501.00
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SV KapfenbergSV Kapfenberg

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W13L00D21W02L01L31W01L14L03LH·STU01/03A·WSP13/03H·SKU22/03A·FIR03/04H·RAP06/04A·AUS10/04H·SCH17/04A·AUS25/04H·FC 02/05H·SKN08/05
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.931.531.730.872.13
vs Stronger (8)0.883.250.253.001.503.50
vs Similar (22)1.321.452.001.270.641.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Austria Vienna (Am)) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.8%
Under 1.5
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.0%
Under 2.5
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.5%
Under 3.5
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.7%
No
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
1-0
10.2%
0-0
9.4%
2-1
8.9%
2-0
8.1%
0-1
7.6%
1-2 ✓
6.9%
2-2
4.9%
Austria Vienna (Am) goals ↓
SV Kapfenberg goals →
01234
09.4%7.6%4.9%1.8%0.5%
110%14%6.9%2.5%0.7%
28.1%8.9%4.9%1.8%0.5%
33.8%4.2%2.3%0.8%0.2%
41.4%1.5%0.8%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Austria Vienna (Am) goals (down), columns = SV Kapfenberg goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
SKN ST. Polten
1.93
Austria Lustenau
1.90
Admira Wacker
1.76
Floridsdorfer AC
1.71
FC Liefering
1.66
SKU Amstetten
1.57
First Vienna
1.48
Austria Vienna (Am)
1.38
Austria Salzburg
1.32
Austria Klagenfurt
1.24
Rapid Wien II
1.21
WSPG Wels
1.14
SV Kapfenberg
1.07
Stripfing
0.83
Sturm Graz II
0.76
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
0.66
Austria Vienna (Am) is 0.31 points better than SV Kapfenberg in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.07).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Admira Wacker
1.76
SKN ST. Polten
1.62
FC Liefering
1.62
Floridsdorfer AC
1.50
Austria Lustenau
1.48
SKU Amstetten
1.46
WSPG Wels
1.34
Stripfing
1.33
Austria Salzburg
1.29
Rapid Wien II
1.28
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.24
Austria Klagenfurt
1.17
Austria Vienna (Am)
1.17
SV Kapfenberg
1.10
First Vienna
1.10
Sturm Graz II
1.00
Austria Vienna (Am) is 0.07 goals better than SV Kapfenberg in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.10).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Floridsdorfer AC
0.64
First Vienna
0.86
SKN ST. Polten
0.93
Austria Lustenau
1.00
Admira Wacker
1.00
SKU Amstetten
1.21
Austria Salzburg
1.32
WSPG Wels
1.41
Austria Vienna (Am)
1.41
FC Liefering
1.41
Austria Klagenfurt
1.52
Rapid Wien II
1.55
Sturm Graz II
1.69
SV Kapfenberg
1.83
Stripfing
1.92
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
2.07
Austria Vienna (Am) is 0.41 goals better than SV Kapfenberg in terms of goals conceded per game (1.41 vs 1.83).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
FC Liefering
53%
Austria Lustenau
47%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Austria Vienna (Am)Austria Vienna (Am)

For 6.0 · Against 7.0 · Total 13.0

🚩 Corners

13085491313A·FC H·ADM
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.0

🟨 Cards

30211233A·FC H·ADM
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.5 · Against 14.5 · Total 23.0

⚠️ Fouls

2708119181927A·FC H·ADM
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

SV KapfenbergSV Kapfenberg

For 2.0 · Against 6.0 · Total 8.0

🚩 Corners

80268A·SV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 6.0

🟨 Cards

60336A·SV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 13.0 · Total 26.0

⚠️ Fouls

260131326A·SV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Austria Vienna (Am)Austria Vienna (Am)

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.810.311.21.31.21.526.126.625.6
vs Stronger (3)13.0-13.01.00.01.519.0-19.0
vs Similar (41)11.210.511.81.31.11.525.525.825.2
vs Weaker (6)7.59.06.01.82.01.733.031.035.0
% over line67%57%75%18%12%23%87%100%75%
% under line33%43%25%82%88%77%13%0%25%
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SV KapfenbergSV Kapfenberg

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.58.111.11.61.71.523.526.120.6
vs Stronger (15)9.59.39.72.12.02.121.827.716.0
vs Similar (35)9.67.412.21.41.61.224.725.224.0
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line40%38%43%26%27%25%67%88%43%
% under line60%62%57%74%73%75%33%12%57%
This opponent (Austria Vienna (Am)) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
SKN ST. Polten
10.6
Austria Vienna (Am)
10.5
FC Liefering
10.3
SV Kapfenberg
10.3
SKU Amstetten
10.2
First Vienna
10.1
Floridsdorfer AC
10.0
Rapid Wien II
9.7
Austria Klagenfurt
9.4
Austria Lustenau
9.3
Admira Wacker
8.8

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
SV Kapfenberg
6.5
SKN ST. Polten
5.5
Floridsdorfer AC
5.4
SKU Amstetten
5.3
Austria Klagenfurt
5.1
Austria Lustenau
5.0
First Vienna
5.0
FC Liefering
4.9
Admira Wacker
4.7
Austria Vienna (Am)
4.3
Rapid Wien II
4.0

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
First Vienna
26.4
Floridsdorfer AC
26.0
Austria Vienna (Am)
25.2
FC Liefering
25.1
SV Kapfenberg
24.1
SKU Amstetten
23.8
Rapid Wien II
23.8
Admira Wacker
23.3
Austria Lustenau
23.3
SKN ST. Polten
22.5
Austria Klagenfurt
22.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
50.7%
Under 9.5
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
76.4%
Under 3.5
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
65.2%
Under 21.5
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 3.5 cards76.4%--------
Under 3.575.5%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.572.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AL (22)
€5m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AL (10)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AL (3)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AL (9)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Austria Vienna (Am) vs SV Kapfenberg · H/A from AV(
DateH/AGameScore
28/11/25ASV Kapfenberg Vs AV(1-2
25/02/23ASV Kapfenberg Vs AV(4-2
05/08/22HAV( Vs SV Kapfenberg2-2

Austria Vienna (Am)Austria Vienna (Am)

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/05/26ASchwarz-Weiß Bregenz Vs AV(2-2
02/05/26HAV( Vs Floridsdorfer AC0-5
24/04/26AFC Liefering Vs AV(2-0
17/04/26HAV( Vs Austria Salzburg1-1
06/04/26HAV( Vs Austria Lustenau3-1
03/04/26ASKU Amstetten Vs AV(1-1
21/03/26HAV( Vs Sturm Graz II0-1
15/03/26AFirst Vienna Vs AV(0-2
07/03/26HAV( Vs WSPG Wels1-0
27/02/26HAV( Vs Rapid Wien II1-0

SV KapfenbergSV Kapfenberg

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/05/26HSK Vs SKN ST. Polten0-3
02/05/26HSK Vs FC Liefering1-4
25/04/26AAustria Salzburg Vs SK1-0
17/04/26HSK Vs Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz3-1
10/04/26AAustria Klagenfurt Vs SK1-0
06/04/26HSK Vs Rapid Wien II0-2
03/04/26AFirst Vienna Vs SK1-2
22/03/26HSK Vs SKU Amstetten0-0
13/03/26AWSPG Wels Vs SK3-1
01/03/26HSK Vs Sturm Graz II2-1

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Austria Vienna (Am)
Austria Vienna (Am)
Austria: 2. Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLLD1.18
HomeWLWDL1.21
AwayLWDLD1.15
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%29%35%
AVG goals2.682.293.04
Over 1.5 %80%67%92%
Over 2.5 %46%33%58%
Over 3.5 %26%21%31%
Scored1.000.881.12
Conceded1.681.421.92
BTTS50%50%50%
Clean Sheet20%25%15%
Corners10.8010.2911.25
Cards4.474.004.88
SV Kapfenberg
SV Kapfenberg
Austria: 2. Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLL1.28
HomeDLWLL1.72
AwayLLWLL0.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%52%24%
AVG goals3.283.682.88
Over 1.5 %88%92%84%
Over 2.5 %64%72%56%
Over 3.5 %32%40%24%
Scored1.421.960.88
Conceded1.861.722.00
BTTS60%68%52%
Clean Sheet14%16%12%
Corners9.698.1211.25
Cards5.695.505.88

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1SKN ST. PoltenSKN ST. Polten2956
59%
1.9
4727+20
2.6
76%
59%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.60.9
-
2Austria LustenauAustria Lustenau2955
55%
1.9
4329+14
2.5
72%
52%
21%
7.0
0%
3.0
0%
18.0
0%
5
2121.51.0
47%
3Admira WackerAdmira Wacker2951
45%
1.8
5129+22
2.8
76%
55%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.0
-
4Floridsdorfer ACFloridsdorfer AC2848
50%
1.7
4218+24
2.1
71%
32%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.6
-
5FC LieferingFC Liefering2948
45%
1.7
4741+6
3.0
72%
52%
48%
7.0
0%
3.0
0%
18.0
0%
0
0001.61.4
53%
6SKU AmstettenSKU Amstetten2844
39%
1.6
4134+7
2.7
75%
50%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
7First ViennaFirst Vienna2943
41%
1.5
3225+7
2.0
69%
34%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.10.9
-
8Austria Vienna (Am)Austria Vienna (Am)2940
38%
1.4
3441-7
2.6
83%
45%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
9Austria SalzburgAustria Salzburg2837
32%
1.3
3637-1
2.6
75%
50%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
10Austria KlagenfurtAustria Klagenfurt2936
34%
1.2
3444-10
2.7
86%
55%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
11Rapid Wien IIRapid Wien II2935
34%
1.2
3745-8
2.8
83%
52%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
12WSPG WelsWSPG Wels2933
31%
1.1
3941-2
2.8
66%
41%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
13SV KapfenbergSV Kapfenberg2931
31%
1.1
3253-21
2.9
79%
62%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
-
14Sturm Graz IISturm Graz II2922
17%
0.8
2949-20
2.7
79%
52%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
15Schwarz-Weiß BregenzSchwarz-Weiß Bregenz2919
10%
0.7
3660-24
3.3
97%
66%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.1
-
16StripfingStripfing1210
17%
0.8
1623-7
3.2
67%
50%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.9
-
Austria: 2. Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: 2. Liga stats & trends →

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