PythiaFootballBETA
Austria Vienna host Lask Linz at home, but the away side's recent form is the dominant storyline. Lask Linz is on a 5-game winning run, having just defeated Grazer AK 3-0 last time out. Meanwhile, Austria Vienna is coming off a win, but their recent form is more inconsistent.
The model predicts an away win, with a 51% probability of Lask Linz taking all three points. The match is expected to be relatively low-scoring, with an average of 2.9 goals expected. The single most likely score is 1-1, with a 12.2% probability.
At home, Austria Vienna has scored an average of 1.67 goals and conceded 1.5, while facing opponents of similar strength. Away from home, Lask Linz has scored 1.86 goals and conceded 1.29, also against similar opponents.
The model's selection is Over 1.5, with a 79.2% probability, suggesting a slight edge for this pick. The home win percentage is 23%, the draw percentage is 26%, and the away win percentage is 51%. The model's selection Over 1.5 is the model's selection, with a 79.2% probability. Additionally, the model suggests a Lask Linz win, with a 51% probability, and a draw, with a 26% probability.
Austria Vienna's home woes continued as they slumped to a 0-2 defeat, extending their recent run of inconsistent form. The away side, Lask Linz, capitalized on their opponent's struggles, securing a convincing win. The model's selection, Away win, proved correct, as they were the pre-match favourite with a 53% probability of winning.
The model's call was vindicated as Lask Linz's 5-game winning streak remained intact. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with an 84.1% probability, while the most likely score of 1-2 had a 9.7% chance. The expected total goals stood at 3.2, with the most likely outcome being 3 goals.
Austria Vienna| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.63 | 1.53 | 1.43 | 1.64 | 1.81 | 1.44 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 1.43 | 2.29 | 1.50 | 3.00 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.58 | 1.37 | 1.56 | 1.22 | 1.60 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 2.25 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 1.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+0pp vs league) | |||||
Lask Linz| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.27 | 1.10 | 2.07 | 1.13 | 2.47 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 2.00 | 2.67 | 1.50 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (11) | 2.45 | 1.09 | 2.80 | 0.80 | 2.17 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (16) | 2.19 | 0.81 | 1.75 | 0.88 | 2.62 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+10pp vs league) | |||||
| Lask Linz goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.0% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 2.5% |
| 1 | 4.0% | 11% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 3.1% |
| 2 | 3.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 2.0% |
| 3 | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
Austria ViennaLask LinzAustria Vienna| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.3 | 10.4 | 10.2 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 22.3 | 22.6 | 22.1 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 9.8 | 10.5 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 22.6 | 21.5 | 23.7 |
| vs Similar (30) | 10.7 | 10.6 | 10.7 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 22.0 | 22.5 | 21.5 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 9.2 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 24.5 | 26.5 | 22.5 |
| % over line | 54% | 57% | 52% | 56% | 62% | 50% | 46% | 52% | 39% |
| % under line | 46% | 43% | 48% | 44% | 38% | 50% | 54% | 48% | 61% |
Lask Linz| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.5 | 10.8 | 10.1 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 20.7 | 20.9 | 20.4 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 9.5 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 17.2 | 18.5 | 16.0 |
| vs Similar (16) | 10.4 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 20.7 | 20.6 | 20.8 |
| vs Weaker (30) | 10.7 | 10.6 | 10.7 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 21.3 | 21.5 | 21.1 |
| % over line | 56% | 61% | 50% | 38% | 44% | 32% | 42% | 39% | 45% |
| % under line | 44% | 39% | 50% | 62% | 56% | 68% | 58% | 61% | 55% |
Austria Vienna| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.93 | 0.64 | 0.86 | 0.88 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.86 | 1.29 | 0.75 | 1.75 | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.68 | 0.84 | 0.67 | 0.56 | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+17pp vs league) | |||||
Lask Linz| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (11) | 1.18 | 0.64 | 1.20 | 0.80 | 1.17 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (16) | 0.81 | 0.56 | 0.75 | 0.62 | 0.88 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+27pp vs league) | |||||
Austria Vienna| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.60 | 0.79 | 0.79 | 0.94 | 0.44 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.57 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 1.25 | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.89 | 0.53 | 0.89 | 0.67 | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.25 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.67 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+27pp vs league) | |||||
Lask Linz| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.27 | 0.43 | 1.07 | 0.33 | 1.47 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.67 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (11) | 1.27 | 0.45 | 1.60 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| vs Weaker (16) | 1.38 | 0.25 | 1.00 | 0.25 | 1.75 | 0.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+44pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 84.1% | 1.22 | 1.25 | 1.24 | 1.24 | 1.22 | 1.22 | +7.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 01/03/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 17/08/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 01/12/24 | A | 1-3 | |
| 25/08/24 | H | 2-1 | |
| 03/12/23 | H | 0-0 | |
| 27/08/23 | A | 2-0 |
Austria Vienna| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 02/08/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 30/07/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 26/07/26 | A | 0-5 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 1-3 |
Lask Linz| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 25/07/26 | A | 0-7 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 04/05/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 01/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 1-5 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 10/04/26 | A | 2-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Lask Linz | 5 | 15 | 100% | 3.0 | 15 | 2 | +13 | 3.4 | 100% | 80% | 40% | 9.2 | 40% | 4.4 | 80% | 22.0 | 60% | 44 | 13 | 11 | 20 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 58% |
| 2 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 40% | 11.8 | 40% | 2.8 | 25% | 15.0 | 0% | 105 | 47 | 29 | 29 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 66% |
| 3 |  Rapid Vienna | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 4.4 | 80% | 80% | 60% | 9.0 | 40% | 3.0 | 40% | 18.8 | 40% | 46 | 16 | 10 | 19 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 56% |
| 4 |  Sturm Graz | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.2 | 80% | 20% | 20% | 13.2 | 80% | 4.8 | 80% | 20.0 | 40% | 52 | 26 | 14 | 13 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 55% |
| 5 |  WSG Wattens | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 40% | 10.8 | 40% | 3.6 | 40% | 19.6 | 20% | 7 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 45% |
| 6 |  TSV Hartberg | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2.6 | 80% | 40% | 20% | 13.0 | 80% | 3.2 | 25% | 18.6 | 20% | 10 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 42% |
| 7 |  Wolfsberger AC | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 2.4 | 80% | 60% | 20% | 12.0 | 80% | 4.6 | 60% | 21.4 | 40% | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 42% |
| 8 |  Austria Lustenau | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 100% | 60% | 20% | 14.4 | 100% | 4.0 | 40% | 20.2 | 40% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 41% |
| 9 |  Ried | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 40% | 8.8 | 40% | 4.0 | 60% | 20.4 | 40% | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 52% |
| 10 |  Grazer AK | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3.0 | 60% | 60% | 20% | 10.8 | 60% | 4.6 | 60% | 23.4 | 80% | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0.4 | 2.6 | 50% |
| 11 |  SCR Altach | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2.4 | 60% | 60% | 20% | 11.0 | 60% | 3.0 | 20% | 19.2 | 40% | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 49% |
| 12 | Austria Vienna | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 2.6 | 80% | 40% | 20% | 10.4 | 60% | 3.2 | 40% | 17.8 | 20% | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 45% |